Cooper Lutkenhaus 400/1500 potential

Ignore the Old Crab wrote:

Renowned Jealousy Tracker wrote:

You can’t answer me because I listed facts. Same as you have sone with others. Cooper hasn’t run a 200m in two full years for example. That’s significant, so you ignore it. Cooper no longer competes for his HS team, so he’s no longer helping the scramble for points. There’s a lot of things he may not do ever again. He’s obviously faster than he was at 15.

When you can’t refute, when trapped, you ignore and scream about being personally attacked when that is all you do. Someone noted it appeared as if your posts are nothing less than you practicing pilpul. They’re likely right. Go ahead, prepare two pages of laments and personal attacks. You’ve alreaddy been exposed. Many times.

You and others have noted Cooper hasn’t raced at 200m since March of ‘24. That race is on Cooper’s YT channel, the weather was not favorable. Armstronglivs glosses over it because he trapped himself, so he just screeches that Cooper hasn’t improved in two years. He brings up Courtney who was running 200m races all the time in college and post college. Cooper has raced zero times over 200m the past two years. Zero. Armstronglivs ignores it becauae it shows how wrong he is on many things. As usual.

Courtney’s best one lap was 45.8 at age 23. Cooper’s last 400m race was last May, at 16, second race of a double, third race in 24 hours. He ran 46.03. Armstronglivs ignores that. When it’s pointed out Coe’s best open 400, as an adult, was 46.8 he then deflects to relay legs, where Coe’s best is 45.5 or 45.7 depending on the source. Coe was 24. Cooper’s fastest relay leg is 45.3 with electronic timing. Again, he was 16 when he ran that. His third race of the meet.

Cooper’s ultimate potential in the 400 it he dedicates a series of races to it is likely 44.8 - 45.5. Could be faster, possibly, but he is not focused on the event, nor should he be. He seems to have a distinct lack of interest in the 1500m, and given his joy over being able to skip cross country at the start of his junior year in HS, we may never see him put much into it.

Armstronglivs can bring up Courtney, Kerr, and Snell all he wants, comparing their PRs at 22 - 25 to Cooper’s at ages 15 - 16. Cooper is already leagues beyond them at 800m, which in the end is what really counts.

Cooper is all in at 800m and Armstronglivs is praying to Lucifer and Ranginui to derail Cooper’s current trajectory.

Renowned Jealousy Tracker wrote:

Armstronglivs wrote:

You have nothing but personal attacks so I have nothing to respond to.

You can’t answer me because I listed facts. Same as you have sone with others. Cooper hasn’t run a 200m in two full years for example. That’s significant, so you ignore it. Cooper no longer competes for his HS team, so he’s no longer helping the scramble for points. There’s a lot of things he may not do ever again. He’s obviously faster than he was at 15.

When you can’t refute, when trapped, you ignore and scream about being personally attacked when that is all you do. Someone noted it appeared as if your posts are nothing less than you practicing pilpul. They’re likely right. Go ahead, prepare two pages of laments and personal attacks. You’ve alreaddy been exposed. Many times.

Ignore the Old Crab wrote:

Renowned Jealousy Tracker wrote:

You can’t answer me because I listed facts. Same as you have sone with others. Cooper hasn’t run a 200m in two full years for example. That’s significant, so you ignore it. Cooper no longer competes for his HS team, so he’s no longer helping the scramble for points. There’s a lot of things he may not do ever again. He’s obviously faster than he was at 15.

When you can’t refute, when trapped, you ignore and scream about being personally attacked when that is all you do. Someone noted it appeared as if your posts are nothing less than you practicing pilpul. They’re likely right. Go ahead, prepare two pages of laments and personal attacks. You’ve alreaddy been exposed. Many times.

You and others have noted Cooper hasn’t raced at 200m since March of ‘24. That race is on Cooper’s YT channel, the weather was not favorable. Armstronglivs glosses over it because he trapped himself, so he just screeches that Cooper hasn’t improved in two years. He brings up Courtney who was running 200m races all the time in college and post college. Cooper has raced zero times over 200m the past two years. Zero. Armstronglivs ignores it becauae it shows how wrong he is on many things. As usual.

Courtney’s best one lap was 45.8 at age 23. Cooper’s last 400m race was last May, at 16, second race of a double, third race in 24 hours. He ran 46.03. Armstronglivs ignores that. When it’s pointed out Coe’s best open 400, as an adult, was 46.8 he then deflects to relay legs, where Coe’s best is 45.5 or 45.7 depending on the source. Coe was 24. Cooper’s fastest relay leg is 45.3 with electronic timing. Again, he was 16 when he ran that. His third race of the meet.

Cooper’s ultimate potential in the 400 it he dedicates a series of races to it is likely 44.8 - 45.5. Could be faster, possibly, but he is not focused on the event, nor should he be. He seems to have a distinct lack of interest in the 1500m, and given his joy over being able to skip cross country at the start of his junior year in HS, we may never see him put much into it.

Armstronglivs can bring up Courtney, Kerr, and Snell all he wants, comparing their PRs at 22 - 25 to Cooper’s at ages 15 - 16. Cooper is already leagues beyond them at 800m, which in the end is what really counts.

Cooper is all in at 800m and Armstronglivs is praying to Lucifer and Ranginui to derail Cooper’s current trajectory.

Sub-9:00 guy wrote:

Ignore the Old Crab wrote:

You and others have noted Cooper hasn’t raced at 200m since March of ‘24. That race is on Cooper’s YT channel, the weather was not favorable. Armstronglivs glosses over it because he trapped himself, so he just screeches that Cooper hasn’t improved in two years. He brings up Courtney who was running 200m races all the time in college and post college. Cooper has raced zero times over 200m the past two years. Zero. Armstronglivs ignores it becauae it shows how wrong he is on many things. As usual.

Courtney’s best one lap was 45.8 at age 23. Cooper’s last 400m race was last May, at 16, second race of a double, third race in 24 hours. He ran 46.03. Armstronglivs ignores that. When it’s pointed out Coe’s best open 400, as an adult, was 46.8 he then deflects to relay legs, where Coe’s best is 45.5 or 45.7 depending on the source. Coe was 24. Cooper’s fastest relay leg is 45.3 with electronic timing. Again, he was 16 when he ran that. His third race of the meet.

Cooper’s ultimate potential in the 400 it he dedicates a series of races to it is likely 44.8 - 45.5. Could be faster, possibly, but he is not focused on the event, nor should he be. He seems to have a distinct lack of interest in the 1500m, and given his joy over being able to skip cross country at the start of his junior year in HS, we may never see him put much into it.

Armstronglivs can bring up Courtney, Kerr, and Snell all he wants, comparing their PRs at 22 - 25 to Cooper’s at ages 15 - 16. Cooper is already leagues beyond them at 800m, which in the end is what really counts.

Cooper is all in at 800m and Armstronglivs is praying to Lucifer and Ranginui to derail Cooper’s current trajectory.

Bingo. And even as we might all agree that the kid is very physically mature for his age, that does not mean he’s at his peak physical maturity. That is still 2-3 years off. To presume he won’t be faster at 19-20 over 200/400 than at age 15-16 is just myopic thinking.

This thread asked what his potential is, not what do a couple of stale and incomplete data points say about his current ability… CL has 21-flatish and 45, maybe 44.9, potential. Now, whether he ever takes his shot is another matter. And I don’t think he really cares about the 200 or he would’ve run one even last year.

Armstronglivs wrote:

Renowned Jealousy Tracker wrote:

You can’t answer me because I listed facts. Same as you have sone with others. Cooper hasn’t run a 200m in two full years for example. That’s significant, so you ignore it. Cooper no longer competes for his HS team, so he’s no longer helping the scramble for points. There’s a lot of things he may not do ever again. He’s obviously faster than he was at 15.

When you can’t refute, when trapped, you ignore and scream about being personally attacked when that is all you do. Someone noted it appeared as if your posts are nothing less than you practicing pilpul. They’re likely right. Go ahead, prepare two pages of laments and personal attacks. You’ve alreaddy been exposed. Many times.

More personal attacks. And Lutkenhaus has just run 200 in training, which was the subject of a thread. The equivalent of 22.6.

Armstronglivs wrote:

Ignore the Old Crab wrote:

You and others have noted Cooper hasn’t raced at 200m since March of ‘24. That race is on Cooper’s YT channel, the weather was not favorable. Armstronglivs glosses over it because he trapped himself, so he just screeches that Cooper hasn’t improved in two years. He brings up Courtney who was running 200m races all the time in college and post college. Cooper has raced zero times over 200m the past two years. Zero. Armstronglivs ignores it becauae it shows how wrong he is on many things. As usual.

Courtney’s best one lap was 45.8 at age 23. Cooper’s last 400m race was last May, at 16, second race of a double, third race in 24 hours. He ran 46.03. Armstronglivs ignores that. When it’s pointed out Coe’s best open 400, as an adult, was 46.8 he then deflects to relay legs, where Coe’s best is 45.5 or 45.7 depending on the source. Coe was 24. Cooper’s fastest relay leg is 45.3 with electronic timing. Again, he was 16 when he ran that. His third race of the meet.

Cooper’s ultimate potential in the 400 it he dedicates a series of races to it is likely 44.8 - 45.5. Could be faster, possibly, but he is not focused on the event, nor should he be. He seems to have a distinct lack of interest in the 1500m, and given his joy over being able to skip cross country at the start of his junior year in HS, we may never see him put much into it.

Armstronglivs can bring up Courtney, Kerr, and Snell all he wants, comparing their PRs at 22 - 25 to Cooper’s at ages 15 - 16. Cooper is already leagues beyond them at 800m, which in the end is what really counts.

Cooper is all in at 800m and Armstronglivs is praying to Lucifer and Ranginui to derail Cooper’s current trajectory.

Your argument is reducible ultimately to Lutkenhaus's age. None of his performances over the 400 or 1500 are superior to 800 runners in the distant past who ran without all the modern aids that he has.

He may get better - that isn't being disputed - but it likely won't be anything as exponential as what is argued here. As Wilson shows, the gains for prodigies can be small. So far we see no indication that Lutkenhaus has world class 400 speed (or 1500 endurance). It doesn't seem to be enough to you that he excels over his specialist distance.