CDA can put 3-4 in front of Rocky's 2, but Rocky puts 6-7 in front of CDA's 5.
My guess is that next XC season will be like this years, but CDA's margins of victory at State/NXR will be smaller
The problem becomes all those guys that finish between CDA’s 4th and Rocky’s 4th. CDA might have 4 in the top 10 while Rocky may not get their 4th in until 25th. That’s a lot of damage in there.
I’m guessing that because of the JV district rule, Rocky won’t have any more sub 5’s this actual season. It looks like they will end up with 29/50 breaking 5.
Mt. View looks like they will end up at 16/25, barring Madden Ryan running a 1600 at some point.
Boise looks like 15/30.
I'm wondering if teams will have time trials take place for those who don't get to race JV districts. That could be an opportunity to get 1-2 more for each team.
That’s not really the same thing as doing it during the track season in an actual race.
CDA can put 3-4 in front of Rocky's 2, but Rocky puts 6-7 in front of CDA's 5.
My guess is that next XC season will be like this years, but CDA's margins of victory at State/NXR will be smaller
What guys from Rocky have run those times at sea level in great weather vs which CDA guys have run that in north Idaho?
Jeff Howard did get on here earlier in this thread and heavily discount what kids run at sea level vs what they run in Idaho. We should take that same mentality when we compare a Jaymon Clark, Thomas Kurtz, etc. performance since their own coach does publicly while he bashes CDA. I do think it’s funny that he is so critical of XC teams that go run at travel trips while he takes a squad of distance runners only to Jesuit.
Also, Rietze’s 3200 is from April 6th in Idaho. I’m sure he’s capable of much faster since he just ran 4:26.
CDA can put 3-4 in front of Rocky's 2, but Rocky puts 6-7 in front of CDA's 5.
My guess is that next XC season will be like this years, but CDA's margins of victory at State/NXR will be smaller
What guys from Rocky have run those times at sea level in great weather vs which CDA guys have run that in north Idaho?
Jeff Howard did get on here earlier in this thread and heavily discount what kids run at sea level vs what they run in Idaho. We should take that same mentality when we compare a Jaymon Clark, Thomas Kurtz, etc. performance since their own coach does publicly while he bashes CDA. I do think it’s funny that he is so critical of XC teams that go run at travel trips while he takes a squad of distance runners only to Jesuit.
Also, Rietze’s 3200 is from April 6th in Idaho. I’m sure he’s capable of much faster since he just ran 4:26.
CDA’s 4:38 just dropped to 4:34. Should probably stop comparing times when we are half way through the weekend.
CDA can put 3-4 in front of Rocky's 2, but Rocky puts 6-7 in front of CDA's 5.
My guess is that next XC season will be like this years, but CDA's margins of victory at State/NXR will be smaller
What guys from Rocky have run those times at sea level in great weather vs which CDA guys have run that in north Idaho?
Jeff Howard did get on here earlier in this thread and heavily discount what kids run at sea level vs what they run in Idaho. We should take that same mentality when we compare a Jaymon Clark, Thomas Kurtz, etc. performance since their own coach does publicly while he bashes CDA. I do think it’s funny that he is so critical of XC teams that go run at travel trips while he takes a squad of distance runners only to Jesuit.
Also, Rietze’s 3200 is from April 6th in Idaho. I’m sure he’s capable of much faster since he just ran 4:26.
Rocky's 4:27, the 9:43, and the 9:51 (slower than Tufts PB) are the only times I used that were from sea level.
My understanding of what Jeff said was that when you look at a team that has run at sea level, versus a team that hadn't at that point in the season, it's an unfair competition.
CDA has had several sea level meets with great competition. Rocky has had 1 sea level meet (with results that matter for returning) but has had better competition all season.
The comparisons are never fair. Rietze has raced 5 times this year, all in northern Idaho, but we are supposed to compare him to a guy that has raced 12 times this year? Gabriel Heule has raced a whopping 7 times this year after you include his race today, but the times getting used are from before that race. Northern Idaho guys are at a disadvantage when it comes to how fast they can run early in the year. Rocky supporters also love to talk about quality of competition like their 4:35 boys aren't in great races all the time due to the depth of their team. In fact, a lot of those Rocky guys have right on top of their best marks, if not their best, in those low-key meets, because they are glorified time trials with the objective of running fast.
It doesn't matter, though. I think Timberline is more likely to beat Rocky than Rocky is to beat CDA. Rocky is more likely to finish 4th than they are to win, honestly. MV and Boise are also looking pretty deep at this point, or at least deep enough to put a few runners in front of Rocky's 4 and 5. It's a lot closer than what one would think.
CDA will repeat as NXR/State Champs. The biggest surprise? Zach CS has arrived. They will have a stronger first 3 than last year (Max, Zach and Wyatt) and 4 and 5 will be well under 16 when the summer session ends.
Shout out to all of the super fast 800 meter times in Idaho this year. What's in the water down in Boise?
It's pretty clear at this point that state will go
CDA ~25
Timberline ~45
Rocky/Mountain View/Boise ~ 60, 70, 80
The field
I invite you to look at team scoring results from past years and adjust your scale appropriately.
not a very good data nerd. Lowest possible number of combined scores across 11 teams is 1540. Total is more likely to be 1750. No way the top 5 teams go as low as 80% of the lowest possible top 5 score.
