Well, SE regional went out at 3:33/k, or 5:43 mile pace, so I would have to say she can go a LOT faster.
Florida state Emmy van den berg was 52 seconds behind tuohy at accs and 30 seconds behind Valby at regionals. Alyson Churchill was 72 seconds behind tuohy at accs and 50 seconds behind valby at regionals. So, there are stats in both directions.
That stat I look at is Chelangat. I don't think Chelangat is faster than Tuohy now, and she was only 7.5 seconds off of Valby at SEC.
Considering the conditions on Saturday, I believe they’ll take it fast, but conservative, approximately 3:16/km…
By my estimation, Tuohy will make her move at about 4.4km to 4.6km, so let’s call it 4.5km.
About at the 14:42 mark on the clock. Then the race begins.
So you agree that “they” in your scenario are the NCState women, and they will end up being the pacesetters, correct? Otherwise, they open the door for New Mexico.
If you can follow that logic, then you can understand it is more likely in PV’s best interest to key off of KT, and make KT perform pacesetting duties. The flowtrak guys got it wrong, like I initially did.
The other example I was responding to is the exact reverse ... Tuohy chilling at regionals and kentucky runners running hard.
Why do you think Chelangat is faster than Tuohy now?
In my first post I said I assumed Tuohy was taking it easy at regionals and asked by how much. It needs to be around 30 seconds.
Comparing the extremely slow pace she ran at regionals through 4k (3:25/k) to her pre-kick paces acc/ piane, she probably could have run 40-50 seconds faster at least.
The Stride Report’s latest podcast is out where Ben and Garett discuss thoughts about Regionals and the upcoming championships.
On the women’s side, they mention they feel Chelangat would realistically be on the only one to expect to defeat Valby and Tuohy, essentially based on her winning it all previously, and on this same course. While I agree Chelangat is a phenomenal athlete, and I have her ranked high, I don’t think she’s had the kind of season that lends itself to seeing a possibly victory. Besides, she’s lost to both of them this season.
What really surprised me is I don’t remember them mentioning McCabe having a shot. They mentioned Roe and Cook as dark horses, but I don’t recall them discussing McCabe. Interesting…
This just OUT! Brace yourself for too much talking from the interviewer, but HOPEFULLY McCable will get a chance to talk!
Thanks for posting this. I was relieved to hear her mention "...knowing how to be as relaxed as possible on the hills...is key," imo an asset just as crucial as the timing of her close. I also got the impression that she has reflected on the final km of 2021 Nats and might have some different tactical options in mind should she find herself in a similar position on Sat.
Considering the conditions on Saturday, I believe they’ll take it fast, but conservative, approximately 3:16/km…
By my estimation, Tuohy will make her move at about 4.4km to 4.6km, so let’s call it 4.5km.
About at the 14:42 mark on the clock. Then the race begins.
So you agree that “they” in your scenario are the NCState women, and they will end up being the pacesetters, correct? Otherwise, they open the door for New Mexico.
If you can follow that logic, then you can understand it is more likely in PV’s best interest to key off of KT, and make KT perform pacesetting duties. The flowtrak guys got it wrong, like I initially did.
Well this will be my last post on this thread. It was a learning experience, but that does not mean I have any better idea on who has the best chance of winning.
My handle ‘the superior athlete will show up’ was taken as a misnomer riddle, for there is no correct answer on which is ‘superior’, for the definition can include many meanings, and “horses for courses” would imply a superior cross country runner may have an advantage. They are all athletically gifted.
I did think when I first entered the thread, that the ‘injury’ would likely be a factor. Although it may only be “a very minor issue”, it would be interesting to get clarification on what “issue” means.
Seriously, is that semihaze dude a girl? He sure doesn’t talk like it, and he and astro make rooting for tuohy a total buzzkill. Peace.
Considering the conditions on Saturday, I believe they’ll take it fast, but conservative, approximately 3:16/km…
By my estimation, Tuohy will make her move at about 4.4km to 4.6km, so let’s call it 4.5km.
About at the 14:42 mark on the clock. Then the race begins.
So you agree that “they” in your scenario are the NCState women, and they will end up being the pacesetters, correct? Otherwise, they open the door for New Mexico.
If you can follow that logic, then you can understand it is more likely in PV’s best interest to key off of KT, and make KT perform pacesetting duties. The flowtrak guys got it wrong, like I initially did.
“They” in my view, will be Tuohy, Chmiel, Roe, McCabe & Chelangat. Valby can do whatever she wants (which will probably be about 6 seconds ahead of them).
therunnerscentral NCAA D1 Women’s Cross Country All-American Predictions for the National Championship on November 19th in Stillwater, Oklahoma 🪐 | All-American Top 40 | 1. Katelyn Tuohy (NC State) 2. Parker Valby (Florida) 3. Mercy Chelangat (Alabama) 4. Ceili McCabe (West Virginia) 5. Kelsey Chmiel (NC State) 6. Taylor Roe (Oklahoma State) 7. Everlyn Kemboi (Utah Valley) 8. Billah Jepkirui (Oklahoma State) 9. Olivia Markezvich (Notre Dame) 10. Natalie Cook (Oklahoma State) 11. Elise Stearns (NAU) 12. Kaylee Mitchell (Oregon State) 13. Emily Venters (Utah) 14. Bailey Hertenstein (Colorado) 15. Maia Ramsden (Harvard) 16. Hilda Olemomoi (Alabama) 17. Gracelyn Larkin (New Mexico) 18. Isabel Van Camp (Arkansas) 19. Aubrey Frentheway (BYU) 20. Addie Engel (Ohio State) 21. Samree Dishon (New Mexico) 22. Samantha Bush (NC State) 23. Amelia Mazza-Downie (New Mexico) 24. Amaris Tyynismaa (Alabama) 25. Tori Herman (Kentucky) 26. Emma Heckel (New Mexico) 27. Flomena Askol (Alabama) 28. Lexy Halladay-Lowry (BYU) 29. Laura Pellicoro (Portland) 30. Annabel Stafford (Colorado State) 31. Siona Chisholm (Notre Dame) 32. Bethany Graham (Furman) 33. Sydney Seymour (NC State) 34. Savannah Roark (Syracuse) 35. Katie Osika (Michigan State) 36. Zofia Dudek (Stanford) 37. Maggie Donahue (Georgetown) 38. Joy Chirchir (Toledo) 39. Izzy Thornton-Bott (Oregon) 40. Maddy Denner (Notre Dame)
Almost identical to my picks. They’ve flip-flopped 3-4-5 just as I mentioned could be. And, instead of Stearns in 9th, they put Markezich, as some in this thread have mentioned is a good pick as well.
Did they happen to state their reasoning? Or was it just their list?
By Erik Boal, DyeStat EditorThe 42nd NCAA Division 1 women’s cross country final is scheduled for Nov. 19 at the Greiner Family Course in Stillwater, Okla.Here are 10 storylines to follow at the championship meet, hosted by O...
I did think when I first entered the thread, that the ‘injury’ would likely be a factor. Although it may only be “a very minor issue”, it would be interesting to get clarification on what “issue” means.
Agree with wanting more clarification. I don't think Henes will say more, and if they told Gault anything else he's not publishing it.
I did think when I first entered the thread, that the ‘injury’ would likely be a factor. Although it may only be “a very minor issue”, it would be interesting to get clarification on what “issue” means.
Agree with wanting more clarification. I don't think Henes will say more, and if they told Gault anything else he's not publishing it.
