Awsi Dooger wrote:
Yeah... wrote:
Wow. Well, thanks, I guess, to several people for making my point. And more sincere thanks to people like Awsi Dooger and Alan (runningart2004)--there are others--who realize that putting everything into Slot A or Slot B, with no possibility of degree or nuance, is both intellectually lazy and incongruent with reality.
As it happens, I detest Donald Trump and would be happy to see him out of the presidency--though I do fear what could happen with Mike Pence in the Oval Office. (Yes, I'm one of the folks who think that that could be worse.) But that doesn't blind me to the fact that the Trump Administration--which was what I specified--has done some good things, to go with many bad ones.
And as a result of that previous sentence, some people will conclude that I'm a troll--because everyone has to be on one team or the other (there are only two teams), and the only possible grades are A+ and F-, right? Well, that attitude comes under the heading of intellectual laziness or else intellectual dishonesty--take your pick, I guess. And it's a sad statement about the tribalism that increasingly has come to infest American culture.
The blip I am referring to is some polls from 41 level to 39 level. I think that is temporary and will bounce back up.
Last December Trump was polling at 35% approval on Gallup and 37% consensus on 538. I think that Alabama senate special election between Moore and Jones was in the second week of December. Something like that. Smack in Trump's long extended downturn. I post on some liberal sites and obviously everyone was rejoicing the outcome. Immediately after the result there were forecasts toward 2018 and 2020. Posters were salivating at the prospect of running against Trump and his 38% approval rating.
I immediately jumped in and said it won't be 38%. They jumped all over me. That happens all the time. Lots of cheerleader types on those partisan political sites, and ones who can't see beyond today. But the point I made then is the same one I'll emphasize here and now: Trump can remain exactly the same, with all the outrageous tweets and priorities, and rants against fake news and the media, and his approval rating will steadily rise. It is simply logical. The public may not like it but as long as their lives are okay and they don't feel threatened by prospects of war or a collapsing economy, slowly they become more accepting of the moron in charge. Late last year it was 38%, now basically 41% despite the recent downturn, and I would expect small uptick by this time next year.
In essence, Trump has to commit even more atrocities to keep his approval down where it is now. And he is certainly capable of that. I saw several pundits commenting last night on how unstable he is currently, compared to that Lester Holt sit down interview a year and a half ago.
I have wagered on politics since 1992. I started studying the political numbers and situational trends for wagering purposes. I would estimate I have wagered on the Republican at least 75% of the time, even though I am a registered Democrat and would never vote for a Republican. The value is more often on the Republican, because of that national slant of roughly 10% more conservatives than liberals. When either side is understated by polling and the media it is typically the Republican. That Shy Tory factor began in the United Kingdom but now it has sailed across the Atlantic and right leaning voters are more likely to distrust pollsters or opinion companies, either refusing to share their opinion or fudging their opinion. Right now I am looking at the Texas senate race as potential opportunity to wager on the Republican, because polling is very tight and all the hype toward Beto, but bottom line that state holds 44% conservatives, which means extremely low margin for error the other way.
In regard to 2020, Trump has massive advantage in terms of an incumbent whose party has been in power only one term. Only Jimmy Carter has failed in that situation in more than a century. It is the reason I laughed at Republicans who thought Clinton was going to lose in 1996, and I laughed at Democrats who thought Bush was going to lose in 2004, and I laughed at Republicans who thought Obama was going to lose in 2012. Those were three very simple wagers. I cleaned up all three times but especially on Obama since the odds were so favorable throughout 2012. It is hilarious that people love to handicap and fixate on the day to day details and developments during a campaign, when essentially those variables mean nothing at all in the big picture, and especially when an incumbent is involved. The fundamentals of those cycles have been set in stone for years. But naturally the nightly cable programs can't sit there every night and say everything we saw today means nothing. They have to wave arms and analyze every gesture and syllable. Every cycle there are a handful of professorial types who trot out their list of all the key factors and who it points to. Those people are treated as oddities, when far more often than not they nailed it, and the nightly chatter is comparative garbage.
If Trump's approval moves toward 45% and above in 2020 I think he'll be re-elected. If it remains at current 41% level he will fail. Democrats figure to reach into the far left of the party for the nominee, as evidenced by the Andrew Gillum choice as Florida governor nominee. The activists aren't going to spend so much energy on a statewide primary and then retreat safe and strategic for the presidential nod.