Lotsa folks will be (rightfully) holding their breath over this. ‘Practicing’ and ‘racing for all the marbles’ are two very different stressors on those kind of injuries; could go lotsa different ways.
Count me amoung the concerned and 'holding their breath...' unpopular opinion here I get it!
Somebody on another thread said Tuohy was faking the injury for the cameras. Which could then mean the guy that posted the pictures may have been a plant to embellish the story, which seems conspiratorial and crazy.
Well that’s what she did at NCAA’s 5000m nationals on the track last year essentially.
But Valby was not as fit then as she is now.
Tuohy also continues to improve her fitness. She wasn’t winning XC meets last year but now she dominates and has the advantage of superior closing speed. I believe her 4:06 1500 led the NCAA last year and is the fastest in this XC championship field. Only McCabe would be close to that kind of speed and maybe Tynnismaa.
Yep. Everyone talks about Valby but Tuohy was wearing down at the end of the year with the rest of her main competitors (Roe, Nichols). Most of the contenders had their best races weeks earlier. And fresh legs matter. See Tuohy at Indoors.
Valby has been attacking early banking on being being strong enough to stay away all season.
Yes and that is exactly what she will do at NCAAs. Why change now? All the pods are this as her go to strategy
Maybe on the track this year she can front-run some college races, and then get pulled along in some fast races with pros. But Saturday, I think she should ask for some early-race patience, not fall asleep. And when she is feeling good, but it’s still too early, just bottle-it-up for the race that’s going to happen around 16min.
Yeah, but you know, it is not just the required foot speed after that last turn. It’s what happened before that, to get them to that point: a hard, sustained effort.
Kentucky also gives you a comparison between SEC champs and the SE Regional. At SEC Bockrath was 6th and 54 seconds behind Valby. At the SE Regional she was 9th and 28 seconds behind Tuohy. Herman was 73 behind Valby and 21 behind Tuohy. I assume Tuohy was taking the regional easy but by how much?
Well, SE regional went out at 3:33/k, or 5:43 mile pace, so I would have to say she can go a LOT faster.
Florida state Emmy van den berg was 52 seconds behind tuohy at accs and 30 seconds behind Valby at regionals. Alyson Churchill was 72 seconds behind tuohy at accs and 50 seconds behind valby at regionals. So, there are stats in both directions.
That stat I look at is Chelangat. I don't think Chelangat is faster than Tuohy now, and she was only 7.5 seconds off of Valby at SEC.
Yeah, but you know, it is not just the required foot speed after that last turn. It’s what happened before that, to get them to that point: a hard, sustained effort.
And remember, at just 20secs into that last ~4min effort, Coach Smith was saying “Bide your time! Bide you time!”
Kentucky also gives you a comparison between SEC champs and the SE Regional. At SEC Bockrath was 6th and 54 seconds behind Valby. At the SE Regional she was 9th and 28 seconds behind Tuohy. Herman was 73 behind Valby and 21 behind Tuohy. I assume Tuohy was taking the regional easy but by how much?
Well, SE regional went out at 3:33/k, or 5:43 mile pace, so I would have to say she can go a LOT faster.
Florida state Emmy van den berg was 52 seconds behind tuohy at accs and 30 seconds behind Valby at regionals. Alyson Churchill was 72 seconds behind tuohy at accs and 50 seconds behind valby at regionals. So, there are stats in both directions.
That stat I look at is Chelangat. I don't think Chelangat is faster than Tuohy now, and she was only 7.5 seconds off of Valby at SEC.
Considering the conditions on Saturday, I believe they’ll take it fast, but conservative, approximately 3:16/km…
By my estimation, Tuohy will make her move at about 4.4km to 4.6km, so let’s call it 4.5km.
About at the 14:42 mark on the clock. Then the race begins.
Well, SE regional went out at 3:33/k, or 5:43 mile pace, so I would have to say she can go a LOT faster.
Florida state Emmy van den berg was 52 seconds behind tuohy at accs and 30 seconds behind Valby at regionals. Alyson Churchill was 72 seconds behind tuohy at accs and 50 seconds behind valby at regionals. So, there are stats in both directions.
That stat I look at is Chelangat. I don't think Chelangat is faster than Tuohy now, and she was only 7.5 seconds off of Valby at SEC.
Considering the conditions on Saturday, I believe they’ll take it fast, but conservative, approximately 3:16/km…
By my estimation, Tuohy will make her move at about 4.4km to 4.6km, so let’s call it 4.5km.
About at the 14:42 mark on the clock. Then the race begins.
So be it. Sounds good. But I think her hammy is possibly tweaked, so she may not be able to sustain a grueling 5min effort.
Kentucky also gives you a comparison between SEC champs and the SE Regional. At SEC Bockrath was 6th and 54 seconds behind Valby. At the SE Regional she was 9th and 28 seconds behind Tuohy. Herman was 73 behind Valby and 21 behind Tuohy. I assume Tuohy was taking the regional easy but by how much?
Well, SE regional went out at 3:33/k, or 5:43 mile pace, so I would have to say she can go a LOT faster.
Florida state Emmy van den berg was 52 seconds behind tuohy at accs and 30 seconds behind Valby at regionals. Alyson Churchill was 72 seconds behind tuohy at accs and 50 seconds behind valby at regionals. So, there are stats in both directions.
That stat I look at is Chelangat. I don't think Chelangat is faster than Tuohy now, and she was only 7.5 seconds off of Valby at SEC.
Valby ran regionals very easy. The runners who ran hard at both SEC and the south regional gained 30 to 40 seconds on her. So you need to adjust those FSU times by about 35 seconds.
Chelangat most likely is as fast or faster than Tuohy now. She is a smart veteran who only runs hard in championships. She certainly doesn't run hard in September.
Yeah, but you know, it is not just the required foot speed after that last turn. It’s what happened before that, to get them to that point: a hard, sustained effort.
Agree with that point but keep in mind that Tuohy also had the fastest 5k time in the NCAA and even though she seemed to be a little past her peak at Outdoor Nationals she still won the race. Just a complete runner in terms of both strength and speed and the confidence she has now in executing a race plan.
Yeah, but you know, it is not just the required foot speed after that last turn. It’s what happened before that, to get them to that point: a hard, sustained effort.
Agree with that point but keep in mind that Tuohy also had the fastest 5k time in the NCAA and even though she seemed to be a little past her peak at Outdoor Nationals she still won the race. Just a complete runner in terms of both strength and speed and the confidence she has now in executing a race plan.
I agree, she has more race experience, not to mention experience on this course. Therefore, Valby should put it on auto-pilot and observe, during the first part of the race.
Chelangat most likely is as fast or faster than Tuohy now. She is a smart veteran who only runs hard in championships. She certainly doesn't run hard in September.
Well, SE regional went out at 3:33/k, or 5:43 mile pace, so I would have to say she can go a LOT faster.
Florida state Emmy van den berg was 52 seconds behind tuohy at accs and 30 seconds behind Valby at regionals. Alyson Churchill was 72 seconds behind tuohy at accs and 50 seconds behind valby at regionals. So, there are stats in both directions.
That stat I look at is Chelangat. I don't think Chelangat is faster than Tuohy now, and she was only 7.5 seconds off of Valby at SEC.
Valby ran regionals very easy. The runners who ran hard at both SEC and the south regional gained 30 to 40 seconds on her. So you need to adjust those FSU times by about 35 seconds.
Chelangat most likely is as fast or faster than Tuohy now. She is a smart veteran who only runs hard in championships. She certainly doesn't run hard in September.
The other example I was responding to is the exact reverse ... Tuohy chilling at regionals and kentucky runners running hard.
Why do you think Chelangat is faster than Tuohy now?
Valby ran regionals very easy. The runners who ran hard at both SEC and the south regional gained 30 to 40 seconds on her. So you need to adjust those FSU times by about 35 seconds.
Chelangat most likely is as fast or faster than Tuohy now. She is a smart veteran who only runs hard in championships. She certainly doesn't run hard in September.
The other example I was responding to is the exact reverse ... Tuohy chilling at regionals and kentucky runners running hard.
Why do you think Chelangat is faster than Tuohy now?
In my first post I said I assumed Tuohy was taking it easy at regionals and asked by how much. It needs to be around 30 seconds.
Comparative time gaps for their best races show Valby is 15 to 20 seconds ahead of Tuohy. Chelangat is 8 seconds behind Valby. The question is how much more does Tuohy have than what she showed at ACC which was her best race. The other two have already pushed themselves close to their limit at SEC.
Given her experience including winning on the OSU course I have Chelangat even with Valby for this race. There is a lot of room for error on this course especially for someone who has not run hilly courses before but likes to front run. I can see Chelangat running her down like she did last year at the SEC where Valby was way off the front and then started to fade. On the other hand it could look like last year when she couldn't close the 4 second gap on Orton who finished strong.
Based on what? Chelangat was one second off the course record set by Kelati and Kurgat at Joe Piane and Tuohy beat her by 12 seconds, all pretty much in the last K. Unless Tuohy is injured there is no reason to think Chelangat suddenly got faster.
Also the thing about comparative times is that cherrypicking aside and disregarding that athletes may have good and bad races, you also have to factor in things like tactics and courses. At the regional Valby attacked very early and there was zero reason for the pack to pay attention to her and no one did. Alabama did a training run for all intents and purposes. When a runner is attacking early, especially on fast courses where they won't fade, it will affect the time gaps. Tuohy has generally waited until the last 1-2 K, and the closest person to her the last three races were her own teammates. Each time she seems to be practicing attacking the Stillwater course. The only time a gap on the second place runner seemed to matter was at Piane.