d3 xc nationals predictions

Based on team points, Wilmington’s top 3 would have scored 152. So definitely under 600 as a team, probably right around 25th. Pretty good call.

How many b, c, d, etc teams would've beat tufts?

pacing and winning is a graduate level course at Wartburg.

We might as well go back to two teams qualifying per region + at large. There's no sense in having more at large bids if the committee selects teams like Tufts to go. Swarthmore and Brockport are sitting at home after solid performances at regionals. Regionals might mean something again if there are only 12 at large bids.

Beginning in 2006, D3 included 32 teams in the nationals field and heres some perspective on how bad Tufts was this year...

2022: Tufts - 939

2021: WPI - 852

2019: Bates - 795

2018: RIT - 682

2017: Occidental - 784

2016: NYU - 819

2015: Christopher Newport - 845

2014: Bridgewater - 737

2013: Emory - 844

2012: Trinity (Texas) - 829

2011: Lynchburg - 871

2010: Whittier - 683

2009: Mt. Union - 813

2008: Centre - 766

2007: Emory - 770

2006: Ohio Northern - 787

Bates and Conn out did their rankings (26 and 30 to 22 and 24) while Colby and Middlebury had tough days. Tufts was just awful honestly. Williams was also unlucky with how their day went. In weather like this you either exceed expectations or succumb to the pressure. Every team ran well enough to earn their spot form earlier season races (Tufts is iffy but still chosen).

What a fun race today. Biggest surprise was Wartburg. I never really got the 'always choke' talk. For the last 4-5 years in xc and track they've been in the conversation. Kudos to both their men and women. 7 all americans between programs. MIT men were unbelievable. Their 3 man lost his shoe, stopped and put it back on and still killed it. Pomona will be back come track season...by far the most talented team. Carnegie shat the bed once again (4th straight i believe)...as did UW Lacrosse and Otterbein. And yeah...Tufts. At least they got DFL together! Pack running is clutch.

I think bubble teams just need to be more tactical about the regular season meets they go to - it will be much easier to beat a team that the committee thinks is "good" if you go to Conn than any of the other big meets that weekend. In general, the runner-up in the metro and niagara regions will usually be pretty bad, so it doesn't make sense to guarantee them a spot.

Wilmington crybabys get over yourselves. Any team with even 1 top 20 runner can always say "well even if our other runners finished last..." that's just how NCAA scoring works. there's a reason individual qualifying exists and when your 4th runner runs like 29 minutes yeah sorry he doesn't deserve to to nationals just cuz he has some fast friends.

That said, wow tufts was bad.

Called it. California boys can't hang in a real winter with the Northeast/Midwest men!

Tufts disgraced the name of my son, 4:06 miler Jamie Norton, who ran the mile in 4:06.

Can someone explain what happened to Tufts?

Are they really that bad? Seems like Wagude could have been higher if running to his potential.

As a casual observer of NE D3, I get that they weren’t that good this year, but this performance was terrible. Were they all sick or something? Did they all fall coming out of the box?

Ponama-Pisser goes home devastated.

Can someone explain what happened to Pomona?

I feel like its mainly that going from sunny cali to snow and ice in michigan is not a smooth transition and hard to prepare for. A lot of people having been saying this would happen all week. I didn't think it would create this much of a disparity, but here we are.

Can anyone explain what happened to Tufts?

You're delusional if you think PP could have beat MIT even if they had their best day and it was 20 degrees warmer. The MIT men showed up when it counted and there's absolutely nothing any D3 team could have done about it.

5/7 of their guys along with a lot of individuals and team runners fell 300 in. Did not help them, but honestly they still get last by a lot either way. Probably score around 900 even if this did not happen.

Been saying this for a long time. MIT were the favorites from Pre-Nats on. Their team will lose a good amount of guys, but they got the title and no one can take that away from them. Pomona should rebound well next year returning 6/7.

Isn't one of their top runners a kid from Wisconsin?