Unofficial Seth Demoor Rotterdam ‘Thon Prediction Contest

For f### sake,the guy is 37, has 6 kids, has to make daily Vlog with those silly ass open fridge/drone shot. So I say any training plan that can get him a PB is not a bad plan.

He missed otq by 5mins but does it prove he had a bad plan? I can state a goal of sub2 and I would be happy to take any training plan that make me missed my goal by 10 minutes.

I no longer follow his videos but this threads are a way better vicarious amusement.

Couple of takeaways from his race. He did much better than I predicted and didn't blow up. On the other hand I feel like this is his ceiling given his age and training habits. He's also showing why he is a trail runner mostly and not a road runner. There are a lot of guys who can hit the OTQ which he cannot. Still kudos to him on a good performance and being less stupid than expected.

^ Actual comment from one of his fans

So let's be real here. First and foremost, this was his strongest Marathon effort to date, and much better paced than previous attempts. However, the guy set out to qualify for the Olympic Trials. He made no secret of it. He missed that mark by a significant margin. How do his fans make the mental leap to just ignore that and say "the haters" were wrong? Yes there were some people trolling in here, it's Let's Run and this place sucks, but if you filter out the pond scum that was growing on the surface, there were many more people who had valid takes on his training specifically in relation to an OTQ.

Yes, he put together a solid marathon! 2:22 is awesome where I come from. For most people, self-training to that mark is a resounding success, I get it. But there was a bar that was set, he sailed way under it, and his fanbase is just going to conveniently ignore that? You congratulate him and justify his training methods, even though they failed to get him to his goal? When lots of us believe he's capable of that goal if he would change the way he trains? And that makes us haters? I don't get it. It's like the discussion has pivoted to simply finishing the race. Too many idiots here proclaimed "blow up" so now his fanbase is rallying around his finish. The goalposts got moved. This was never about Seth being a good runner or not, because we know he is. It was about his high volume training vs. an OTQ. And we have results: It did not work.

But somehow we're just going to ignore reality, Seth is ringing the bell, his fans are rejoicing, and we're a bunch of haters for pointing out facts. Reminds me of the GOP. Anyway. My next thought. This guy is going to coach people, and it's been proven right here in front of us that reality doesn't matter. He does not need to validate any of his claims to his fans. He does not need to know what he's talking about. He does not need to coach them to their goals. His fans will still follow his every word. The Joel Osteen Running Club. Sounds lovely.

I ran 2:18 three decades ago without super shoes off of 85 miles per week at sea level whilst working a full time job. This man runs 120 miles each week while splicing together 15 minutes of blathering on, interspersed with canned footage of mountains or puttering about the house. His so-called plan is utter garbage. It's just junk miles with a periodic track session when he needs to review something free that he received in the post. I suppose that makes him a mythic hero to some?

2:22 is a fine time but he is neither a smart planner nor making good use of his time. There are solid training plans and principles readily available to anyone with an Internet connection and secondary school reading comprehension.

That Strava comment stood up to me too. What did he prove? He went out with a goal and missed it by a lot. Heck he didnt hit any 1 of his predicted splits. Now all he proved he's plan didn't hurt him but he didn't work in favor of his goal either 🤷🏻‍♂️

I guess those fans only see a 'crazy good' marathon time and think wow.

His fans were congratulating him for running 3hrs in NYC last fall so I think that might tell you something about his fanbase.

I'm glad he didn't bonk as my guess was 2:28. But it could've easily been <2:18.

Could you imagine what a 2:15 or even 2:14 would do to his street cred??? The guy would be borderline elite and I think with laser focus and a sane training plan, he would actually capable of those times.

Yup. I wrote a lot, but in essence this is what I was trying to get at.

I even tried to be fair to the guy and acknowledge the guy, and I'm still collecting downvotes. It's like they aren't capable of accepting anything but glowing praise for the Seth. Surprised I haven't seen them try to cancel Sage for coming in here and trying to be constructive.

Imagine running 130 mile weeks and then dumping out a 2:22. I bet the dude could run the same time off 85 miles weeks and smarter training, while spending significantly more time not running

Of course he could or say that's the whole point we're saying again and again in here :)

Now I'm really looking forward to Zegama. Imho he has NOT enough mountain training for Zegama in his legs. But on the other hand what's his goal in Zegama? It will not be a time and no way he can podium so ...nothing to measure?

Its interesting - I think his so called "haters" have higher expectations of him than his fans. There are people where a 2:07 would be a huge letdown. Its all relative. Sad we probably wont see him doing a bit more mainstream way to train for a marathon.

Seems like a decent result for him. Maybe he could go a couple minutes but all in all not bad(for him). I suspect 2:17-2:18 is likely his ceiling. I think he’d run faster with a coach but he’s not the first sub elite that was self-coached that could be said about.

Remember when Sage was over-racing? That was painfully obvious to anyone who was looking on objectively.

It looks like I got the arc of his race correct but the time wrong. He ran with the lead women (2:19 pace) until somewhere between 15k and 20k, picked up the pace, faded, but held on for a PR.

[I just saw that he is having a Livestream race recap at 4 PM.]

The thing is, someone with some history of higher mileage does not need so much as they get older. His aerobic bank account is maxed. As we get older it is possible and necessary to do more with less volume.

That's why I stopped commenting on social media about running. It equalizes voices of people with a lot of knowledge and people with no clue. If you say something as an expert, you just get labeled "Hater" and all what you did was putting your opinion in on an subject you know a lot about.

So true! After an SJD video claim that "lactic acid always sets in at the 20 mile mark", I wrote a gentle fact based reply about how that was incorrect, why lactate acidosis was not a function of running long miles at sub-threshold paces, and provided links to online info about it and lactate shuttle. Of course, within minutes the DGR Family attacked me as a hater and wanted to know how many marathons I had won in comparison to their hero? Obviously, a two time Pike's Peak winner with a YouTube channel automatically knows more than the entire exercise science community. It's like dealing with a cult. Their "truth" can't be refuted by evidence.

anyone know what the line is set at for the amount of money SJD takes home from superchats in the Livestream? At least $1k.

Can someone explain this to me? I tried to watch his (i think) post NYC live stream to see what happened and it was the weirdest thing to me. People just gave him money and he stopped mid-sentence to acknowledge. Completely unwatchable. I have no idea why they were just giving him money. Why?

To my surprise, I checked the FB group and there's actually a little bit of constructive discussion on his race and they aren't getting run out of town. Same stuff, needs coaching, speed work, actually acknowledging the gap from 2:22 to 2:18, etc, etc. Of course Youtube and Strava are another story. Still, not bad!