something else that is relevant is that the two fastest 1500 meter runners ever were 1500/5000 guys. Look up their PRs in the 800. the numbers are the numbers. everything else is just speculation.
That isn't the argument. It isn't that they must be 800/1500 runners but that they have speed. An 800 time is simply an indication of how much they have. In Jakob's case, it's not very much.
something else that is relevant is that the two fastest 1500 meter runners ever were 1500/5000 guys. Look up their PRs in the 800. the numbers are the numbers. everything else is just speculation.
That isn't the argument. It isn't that they must be 800/1500 runners but that they have speed. An 800 time is simply an indication of how much they have. In Jakob's case, it's not very much.
In addition to the uncertainties of the causal relationship between the 800m and the 1500m, we cant look past the lack of data either. People discuss his one 800m race from 2022 as it is the best he can do. Using the same logic, in taking the first race of the season from 2022, means that we can establish that he is a 3:34 runner, and in the 5000m a 13:02 runner.
Using those numbers to judge his potential wouldn't lead to the most productive conversation.
He isn't being assessed on the basis of just one race. That he doesn't have a lot speed can be seen from a number of factors. That is why one of the greatest md runners ever has focused on it with his comments.
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That isn't the argument. It isn't that they must be 800/1500 runners but that they have speed. An 800 time is simply an indication of how much they have. In Jakob's case, it's not very much.
and neither of those guys have a good 800 time.
But other aspects of how they raced showed they had more speed. El G could run the last 800 of a 1500 race in the same time as Jakob's best 800.
It is always a mistake to suggest a runner can achieve something because another could. They are different individuals whose capacities are not the same.
The only relevant measure for Jakob's speed is what he has shown. He isn't fast for a 1500 runner - which is why an expert like Cram says that's something he needs to somehow improve if he's going to contend for El G's records. It is obvious but difficult for die-hard fans to accept.
Your logic is perfectly OK here. And my point was also that despite being not fast for a 1500m Jakob may be faster than most think…
You are of course right in your words about the relevant measure for speed is what an athlete has shown -if you by relevant mean proof. But your problem is then that both Lagat and El Guerrouj neither should be able to run low 3.26 -their 800m pb’s were very alike Jakob’s…!
That's true. But as I have pointed out above, they could run the last 800 of a 1500 race in the same time as Jakob's best 800. That is just one indication they had more basic speed than he has. That is also Cram's view or he wouldn't suggest Jakob has to improve his speed to be able to take El G's records.
What you don't appear to get is that an 800 time is an indication of how much speed a md runner has, because it isn't possible to run a fast time without it. Its relevance to Jakob is that if he has less speed than other top md runners - which is what a relatively slow 800 suggests - then to run a faster 1500 - 3:26 speed - pushes him sooner into oxygen debt. His superior endurance isn't an advantage. That is why most great distance runners don't compete in md events - they hit their aerobic limits sooner than a top md athlete (who is faster) would, because it is harder for them to run a succession of 55/56 quarters than for an md athlete of 1:43 capacity.
In my opinion a 1500m is a balance between 800m speed and strength. - One can reach this balance from being best on the speed side (but still some strength) or best on the strength side (but still some 800m speed).
If Jakob is a 1.47 runner I think he is too slow to get the 1500m WR. But with 1.45 he may get it… (Maybe a little faster than Lagat then).
I would suggest better than 1:45. I doubt that he could do that. (That is quite apart from the likelihood that EPO played a part in the record, when there was then no effective test for it).
In my opinion a 1500m is a balance between 800m speed and strength. - One can reach this balance from being best on the speed side (but still some strength) or best on the strength side (but still some 800m speed).
If Jakob is a 1.47 runner I think he is too slow to get the 1500m WR. But with 1.45 he may get it… (Maybe a little faster than Lagat then).
I would suggest better than 1:45. I doubt that he could do that. (That is quite apart from the likelihood that EPO played a part in the record, when there was then no effective test for it).
But other aspects of how they raced showed they had more speed. El G could run the last 800 of a 1500 race in the same time as Jakob's best 800.
1. Here you are speculating, because we don’t know if Jakob could have done likewise in a similar “slow” race…
2. You may of course be right in the point above (my number 1), but you may also be dead wrong! But let’s say you are right -this doesn’t necessarily matters -Jakob (and some others probably) won’t let it come down to a slow race.
3. I have never seen Jakob been out kicked by another athlete in an adult slow outdoor 1500m race. His current home straight speed in such a race is only speculation..! (Well, a little admission: He was out kicked by Lewandowski in 2020 Euros indoor in 2020. So at that time he was vulnerable to a 47 guy with good endurance if the pace was slow enough. But the next year a Jakob with better overall fitness, and presumably better 800m speed, easily handled the Polish on the last lap in a similar race, although somewhat faster…).
4. Cram may have a point, but we don’t know if he’s late to the party. -Maybe Jakob does do some 800m sharpening workouts (we know he has changed some of his summer training). But there may be reasons to not overdo this - Jakob himself has mentioned increased injury danger, and the benefit of a long term perspective. I myself do not entirely trust Cram’s motives here (they may be unconscious) -seems to me like he’s defending to much his own features here (being mostly a 800/1500 guy), and forgets Jakob’s…And he was a little shallow and “fast” when he didn’t even wanted to discuss if Jakob could break the mile (given what happened in DL Eugene)…
5. You can point to Cram, and claim that he is an authority, and therefore have to be right. But the same can be said about Jakob, who hasn’t achieved anything less than Cram in the 1500m. So which authority to pick when they collide -we only shift the argumentation about what is right, to who is right -no progress in my view…
something else that is relevant is that the two fastest 1500 meter runners ever were 1500/5000 guys. Look up their PRs in the 800. the numbers are the numbers. everything else is just speculation.
That isn't the argument. It isn't that they must be 800/1500 runners but that they have speed. An 800 time is simply an indication of how much they have. In Jakob's case, it's not very much.
Not very much speed? That’s insane. He’s won an Olympic Gold in the 1500m and lost 2 WC 1500m by .25 seconds. If he’s so slow, why didn’t he get out kicked out all of the medals? He also won two WC 5000m Golds with a kick. He holds the 2000m WR and is 1.2 seconds of off the 1500m record.
Sure, you’re an expert on doping, but you have no clue what 1500/5000m talent looks like.
That isn't the argument. It isn't that they must be 800/1500 runners but that they have speed. An 800 time is simply an indication of how much they have. In Jakob's case, it's not very much.
Not very much speed? That’s insane. He’s won an Olympic Gold in the 1500m and lost 2 WC 1500m by .25 seconds. If he’s so slow, why didn’t he get out kicked out all of the medals? He also won two WC 5000m Golds with a kick. He holds the 2000m WR and is 1.2 seconds of off the 1500m record.
Sure, you’re an expert on doping, but you have no clue what 1500/5000m talent looks like.
rojo isn't an expert on doping. His speciality is trolling.
See my next post. Here is the video from early 2014 when Jakob ran an indoor 200m at age 13 years and 4 month (not 3 month as wrongly stated above) old:
He ran 25:90 beating an obviously faster and more powerful competitor by running evenly with a better finish. Is 25:90 fast? It is remarkable fast for a runner who is primarily doing aerobic training and who obviously isn´t a natural born sprinter. Despite this he still has more natural speed than the real sprinters mentioned in my previous post, including my young club mate who ran low 26 at age 13 and high 23 at the age of 15 in the 200m. I will estimate that Jakob could have run at least 25.5 in an outdoor 200m under good condition in the summer 2014 (where he was still only 13), 24 sec in the 200m in the summer 2015 at age 14 and 23 sec in the summer 2016 at age 15. He never – to my knowledge – ran 200m in competition again but he ran a number of 800m races which races indicates that his speed progressed swiftly: Here is an 800m at the age of 13 and 3 month:
2:03.21 is a VERY fast time for a guy who is only 13 and who mainly is doing long distance training. But how did he progress from here? Quite well: Just over a year later he ran 1:56.69
an improvement of 6.5 sec. And 8 month later he ran a new outdoor Age WR
in 1:52.60. An improvement of further 4 sec. So Armstrong, if you claim that the 800m performance is dependent on natural speed and that Jakob doesn´t possess this speed, how was he able to run an age WR in his teens. Did he lose his natural speed somewhere along the road? Not in the next 5 years where he progressed to low 1:51 at 15, 1:49.40 at 16 and 1:46.44 at 19. Since then he hasn´t run a serious 800m race but if he had just been following his curb he would have been at 1:44 last season if he had raced in top shape (the shape he had at his Brüssel 2000m WR race). It would also help if he ran more than one 800 race in the season so his body could adjust to the faster pace, especially in the beginning of the race. Back to his 200m potential: As mentioned above he ran an 800m in 2:03.69 at age 13. That makes high 30 per 200m. His 200m PB at the same time was 25.90 so the difference was about 5 sec. Our hero Peter Snell ran according to you low 22 in the 200m and we know he could run 1:44.30 in the 800m (= just over 26 per 200m) so there was a 4 sec difference in his case which is natural because he is running a much faster time. When Jakob was running just over and under 1:52 at age 14 and age 15 his pace per 200m was just over and under 28 sec which by deducting 4.5 sec indicates a 200m just under 24 at age 14 and under 23.5 at age 15. Jakob´s 800m PB at age 19 = 1:46.44 gives a 200m pace at 26.61. If we cautiously subtract 4 sec we get a 200m time at 22.61 at age 19. Since he clearly has improved his speed since then I will estimate that his 200m potential last year was low 22 similar to Snell´s. I know you will strongly disagree BUT do have any valid arguments or just some “handwavering” ones? I am first coming back to this thread now. I see you have responded. I will come back to that later.
Kretsmesterskap 25.01.2014 i Sandneshallen.1. Jakob Ingebrigtsen, Sandnes IL, 25.902. Fredrik Selliken, Sandnes IL, 25.923. Sondre Kleppe Aspelund, Staal Jør...
Ekstraøvelse under NM i mangekamp i Sandneshallen 11.01.2015. 1. Jakob Ingebrigtsen, Sandnes IL, G15, 1:56.69 2. Jan Erik Wergeland, Sandnes IL, MS, 2:02.88...
I would suggest better than 1:45. I doubt that he could do that. (That is quite apart from the likelihood that EPO played a part in the record, when there was then no effective test for it).
That isn't the argument. It isn't that they must be 800/1500 runners but that they have speed. An 800 time is simply an indication of how much they have. In Jakob's case, it's not very much.
Not very much speed? That’s insane. He’s won an Olympic Gold in the 1500m and lost 2 WC 1500m by .25 seconds. If he’s so slow, why didn’t he get out kicked out all of the medals? He also won two WC 5000m Golds with a kick. He holds the 2000m WR and is 1.2 seconds of off the 1500m record.
Sure, you’re an expert on doping, but you have no clue what 1500/5000m talent looks like.
Speed isn't measured by his time for the distance but what he is capable of in a sprint. He is fast for a 5k runner but not for a 1500 runner. In the latter distance he can be out-kicked by runners with better sprint speed. I've seen top md runners for over half a century. Jakob has fantastic endurance but in the speed stakes he's one of the slower of the great 1500 runners. Virtually all of them have had more pace - sprint speed - than he has. He beats faster runners by running the legs off them. But if they are with him at the finish he can be taken - as Wightman and Kerr have shown.
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I'm sorry to say this but your latest post about Jakob's achievements at age 13 is irrelevant nonsense. He was an age prodigy but what he was capable of in his early teens has nothing to do with the athlete he is in his twenties. It is glaringly obvious that as a 1500m exponent his strength is his endurance not his speed - runners like Wightman and Kerr, who have more sprint speed than he has, have shown that. It is why one of the md greats has said Jakob needs to improve that part of his performance if he is to have any real chance of taking El G's records. If Jakob had speed he would be an 800/1500 runner, not a 1500/5k runner.
As for your juggling figures to establish what you think he is capable over 200m I couldn't believe what you've come up with. There is absolutely no way that he is capable of 22-low (and thus Snell speed) over that distance. If he were then with his endurance he would be running faster than 1:42 for the 800 and not 1:46x. I really don't understand what you think you are seeing out there when he is running. He is in your imagination, not reality.
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I would estimate Jakob as having similar sprint speed to a runner like Willis, who ran close to 1:45 over the 800 and whose 400 best was 49x. Jakob is also likely to be a 49-50 runner.
I suppose that you have read my post no 331 by now and watched the linked videos?
Can you see that you are in trouble now? You have repately stated that a runner needs good speed to be a strong 800m runner and now I have provided the documentation for Jakob´s EXCELLENT 800m times all the way through his teens. So isn´t the discussion over?
To underline my point: With the exception of Laros none of the current top milers (of European origin) who you consider superior to Jakob speedwise has run as fast in their teens as Jakob and most first broke 1:46 late in their career:
Wightman 1:52.16 at 18. 1:47.13 at 22 and 1:45.42 at 23.
Kerr: 1:59 at 15, 1:48 at 20 and 1:45.35 at 21.
Gourley: 1:52.77 at 17, 1:46.12 at 24 and 1:44.82 at 27.
Habz: 1:50.44 at 23, 1:46.20 at 26 and 1:43.90 at 29.
Just to clarify: You have stated that most current top milers have run 1:45 in the 800m. This isn´t correct. Only about a third has. To live up to my username I will, however, estimate that more might go under 1:46 if they gave it a fair chance. Including Jakob as you possibly know if he raced in top shape under good conditions.
400m: I will say he possibly can run 48 due to his strong 200m and 800m ability.
Lack of speed: Do you ever watch any of his races? Will promise to watch/ rewatch some races if I provide the links?
Have you read my post? I show that Jakob ran world class 800m times (relative to hos age) all the way through his teens, including an age WR time. Since his teens he hasn´t raced a serious 800m. DO YOU THINK HE HAS LOST HIS EXCELLENT 800M ABILITY GOING INTO ADULTHOOD?
Have you read my post? I show that Jakob ran world class 800m times (relative to hos age) all the way through his teens, including an age WR time. Since his teens he hasn´t raced a serious 800m. DO YOU THINK HE HAS LOST HIS EXCELLENT 800M ABILITY GOING INTO ADULTHOOD?
Caps is making you appear to be obsessed.
If Jakob has amazing speed he clearly hasn't focused on it enough in his training. Can't be close to world class 800 while training to continue winning 5K finals, and expect to break the WR in the 1500 at the same time.