OFFICIAL 2022 WOMENS Individual NCAA D1 XC Championships Predictions

TuohyFan · 2022-11-13T15:07:16-05:00

We’ve been predicting for months now on the [b]“Way Too Early”[/b] thread. 50 pages and 987 posts of knowledge, observations and thought sharing. [b]It’s been great![/b] Now The Big Dance is next weekend. The women have achieved all of the fitness they can at this point and are tapering and resting to be as fast as they can be this upcoming Saturday. So, who’ll win? My personal predictions have NOTHING to do with overall finishing times on any given course during this 2022 XC season. They’re based on who’s raced whom, and who won in head-to-head battles, and how that compares to other women in the NCAA. Not every woman has faced ALL of the competition during 2022. However, some women have raced enough of the various top guns in one race, and then in another race have faced some of the other top guns that by using them as a common reference competitor, predictions can be made. Through those various competitions and competitors, I came up with the following extremely solid predictions of the top-10 women:[b]1 Tuohy SO NC State [/b](defeated Chelangat by 12 seconds in a 5k @ Joe Piane) Undefeated during 2022 season on some of the more difficult courses in the NCAA (ie: Nuttycombe) [b] 2 Valby SO Florida[/b] (defeated Chelangat by 8 seconds @ SEC) Undefeated during 2022 season, ran possibly the fastest ever recorded 6k course in the history of the NCAA @ SEC in 18:25. Flat-fast courses during 2022 season[i] NOTE: 3, 4 & 5 could flip-flop in various ways:[/i] [b] 3 Chmiel JR NC State[/b] (12 seconds behind Tuohy @ ACC)- has been within 5 seconds of Tuohy @ Nuttycombe). Placed ahead of Chelangat due to being closer to Tuohy in a longer and more challenging course. [b] 4 Chelangat SR Alabama[/b] (12 seconds behind Tuohy in a 5k @ Joe Piane) Chelangat is ahead of McCabe based on the last time they were head-to-head was @ 2021 NCAA’s and Chelangat defeated her Ran possibly the 2nd fasted ever recorded 6k course in NCAA history at SEC in 18:33 [b] 5 McCabe JR West Virginia[/b] (2 seconds ahead of Roe @ Big 12) Undefeated during 2022 season [b] 6 Roe SR Oklahoma State[/b] (handily showed her teammates who’s leading her team @ Big 12 by being far ahead of them when sprinting w/ McCabe) [b] 7 Jepkirui FR Oklahoma State[/b] (6 seconds behind Roe @ Big 12) [b] 8 Kemboi SR Utah Valley[/b] (defeated Stearns by 8 seconds @ Mountain Region) [b] 9 Stearns SO NAU[/b] (8 seconds behind Chmiel @ Nutty, 9 seconds behind Roe @ Cowboy) [b] 10 Cook FR Oklahoma State[/b] (11 seconds behind Roe @ Big 12)Regardless of how this all turns out. The fact that OSU has 3 women very strongly possibly finishing in the top-10 is incredible and very well may have a chance at winning the team title. I’m excited to watch this race!Thoughts?

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3 years ago 11/16/2022 8:44pm EST

re: vmg

“…don’t anticipate any issues at NCAAs.”
“It was a very minor issue,” Henes said. “She was able to finish the race well, cool down, and she’s been practicing.”

Agree w poster somewhere above, “very coach-like statement.”

So, we now have confirmation that something did, in fact, happen. Call it a ‘tweak’ if you so desire, but it wasn’t a bug bite. ;)

Lotsa folks will be (rightfully) holding their breath over this. ‘Practicing’ and ‘racing for all the marbles’ are two very different stressors on those kind of injuries; could go lotsa different ways.

the superior athlete will show up wrote:
TuohyFan wrote:
I still swear all it could have really been is her reaching down to scratch at a mosquito bite.
Either way, the great news is, as I’ve said before, she’s just fine.
The wife of the guy that posted the pictures heard what she said, and saw her actions, which had nothing to do with a mosquito bite.

If you think I’ve actually been serious about this the whole time, that’s even more classic.

3 years ago 11/16/2022 8:52pm EST

re: vmg

She said she had a cramp and everything that happened afterward seems consistent with it.

3 years ago 11/16/2022 8:53pm EST

re: vmg

vmg wrote:
“Right about 4.4km to 4.6km mark…”
Jamboree move(s) started at about ~3.5K and that race had no PV. She cannot afford to make this about who is faster running those hills — unless she enters that last 2K w a substantial lead. Hence, an earlier move is likely to happen.

I don’t follow this logic. Parker Valby should let others do the work, until they try and break away.

And then if they have the credentials, Valby should stay on them like white-on-rice. But not until then.

Then, Valby can do the final shake-off in the last 200m, like Orton shook off Roe in that video I posted.

the superior athlete will show up wrote:
FastTuohy wrote:
and who might that be? Besides their top 3 who do they have that could do that? And then less 1 of their top 3 what do they have? Sounds like that would set things up for NM.
Billah Jepkirui might be a very good ‘decoy’; Jepkirui could still likely hold on for a decent placing even if she dies in the process.

I just don’t buy into the possibility of the decoy scenario. To even ask that of an athlete would be pretty odd…

3 years ago 11/16/2022 8:54pm EST

re: TuohyFan

TuohyFan wrote:
the superior athlete will show up wrote:
The wife of the guy that posted the pictures heard what she said, and saw her actions, which had nothing to do with a mosquito bite.
If you think I’ve actually been serious about this the whole time, that’s even more classic.

You’ve been straight-up so far.

the superior athlete will show up wrote:
vmg wrote:
“Right about 4.4km to 4.6km mark…”
Jamboree move(s) started at about ~3.5K and that race had no PV. She cannot afford to make this about who is faster running those hills — unless she enters that last 2K w a substantial lead. Hence, an earlier move is likely to happen.
I don’t follow this logic. Parker Valby should let others do the work, until they try and break away.
And then if they have the credentials, Valby should stay on them like white-on-rice. But not until then.
Then, Valby can do the final shake-off in the last 200m, like Orton shook off Roe in that video I posted.

What you say makes sense. It’s just not Valby’s modus-operandi.

3 years ago 11/16/2022 8:55pm EST

re: TuohyFan

TuohyFan wrote:
the superior athlete will show up wrote:
Billah Jepkirui might be a very good ‘decoy’; Jepkirui could still likely hold on for a decent placing even if she dies in the process.
I just don’t buy into the possibility of the decoy scenario. To even ask that of an athlete would be pretty odd…

It’s team tactics in a team sport.

3 years ago 11/16/2022 8:55pm EST

re: vmg

vmg wrote:
“…don’t anticipate any issues at NCAAs.”
“It was a very minor issue,” Henes said. “She was able to finish the race well, cool down, and she’s been practicing.”
Agree w poster somewhere above, “very coach-like statement.”
So, we now have confirmation that something did, in fact, happen. Call it a ‘tweak’ if you so desire, but it wasn’t a bug bite. ;)
Lotsa folks will be (rightfully) holding their breath over this. ‘Practicing’ and ‘racing for all the marbles’ are two very different stressors on those kind of injuries; could go lotsa different ways.

What coach said could be deduced from observation of what happened. The since-deleted video on the woflpack XC instagram clearly showed Tuohy (about halfway through the race) grabbing her hamstring and audibly saying something like "my hamstring (is cramping)". But she then goes on to not only win the race, but finish the last 2k in like 6:08. Then she's observed smiling after the race with her teammates and in photos with fans like everything is fine.

I don't see any reason to be concerned with Tuohy going into nationals. Whatever the "tweak", it must be something extremely minor given what happened.

Valby has been attacking early banking on being being strong enough to stay away all season.

the superior athlete will show up wrote:
TuohyFan wrote:
If you think I’ve actually been serious about this the whole time, that’s even more classic.
You’ve been straight-up so far.

Okay, okay, true. The “mosquito” thing carried over from a previous thread that was deleted where I went into great detail about the mosquito bite possibility. But really I was just trying to be funny, to make light of the situation. It’s carried lightly over into here.

The main thing is, as I’ve said all along, it was nothing serious. She’s fine.

3 years ago 11/16/2022 8:58pm EST

re: TuohyFan

TuohyFan wrote:
the superior athlete will show up wrote:
You’ve been straight-up so far.
Okay, okay, true. The “mosquito” thing carried over from a previous thread that was deleted where I went into great detail about the mosquito bite possibility. But really I was just trying to be funny, to make light of the situation. It’s carried lightly over into here.
The main thing is, as I’ve said all along, it was nothing serious. She’s fine.

At one point, I had even recommended that if it were in fact a cramp that she might ought to eat a banana.

3 years ago 11/16/2022 9:02pm EST

re: astro

astro wrote:
Valby has been attacking early banking on being being strong enough to stay away all season.

She gapped Chelengat, but then held on. Celengat ran in the pack at Regionals.

A few days ago, I thought Valby should stick to her MO, but after further consideration and info, I think she should let the others do the work, and then be prepared to give a race-of-her-life effort, with around 4mins to go.

the superior athlete will show up wrote:
astro wrote:
Valby has been attacking early banking on being being strong enough to stay away all season.
She gapped Chelengat, but then held on. Celengat ran in the pack at Regionals.
A few days ago, I thought Valby should stick to her MO, but after further consideration and info, I think she should let the others do the work, and then be prepared to give a race-of-her-life effort, with around 4mins to go.

Well that’s what she did at NCAA’s 5000m nationals on the track last year essentially.

the superior athlete will show up wrote:
She gapped Chelengat, but then held on. Celengat ran in the pack at Regionals.
A few days ago, I thought Valby should stick to her MO, but after further consideration and info, I think she should let the others do the work, and then be prepared to give a race-of-her-life effort, with around 4mins to go.

If she can get in the back of the front pack, to stay out of the wind, that would be even better.

In a 6-7min grueling race (I know, I’ve been saying 4min) depending upon course, it’s likely now a toss-up between Tuohy and Valby. But Tuohy has a tweaked hammy.

3 years ago 11/16/2022 9:08pm EST

re: vmg

vmg wrote:
Lotsa folks will be (rightfully) holding their breath over this. ‘Practicing’ and ‘racing for all the marbles’ are two very different stressors on those kind of injuries; could go lotsa different ways.

Count me amoung the concerned and 'holding their breath...' unpopular opinion here I get it!

3 years ago 11/16/2022 9:09pm EST

re: TuohyFan

TuohyFan wrote:
the superior athlete will show up wrote:
She gapped Chelengat, but then held on. Celengat ran in the pack at Regionals.
A few days ago, I thought Valby should stick to her MO, but after further consideration and info, I think she should let the others do the work, and then be prepared to give a race-of-her-life effort, with around 4mins to go.
Well that’s what she did at NCAA’s 5000m nationals on the track last year essentially.

But Valby was not as fit then as she is now.

3 years ago 11/16/2022 9:14pm EST

re: TuohyFan

TuohyFan wrote:
FastTuohy wrote:
I don't recall but that sounds reasonable. If you can find that and the basis, please do.
Lots of posts comparing the ACC’s Panorama Farms to other courses, but no direct coMāoris on (oddly) to Stillwater. Or at least, that I could find.

Kentucky and Ole Miss ran a 5K at Panorama Farms and the 6K Cowboy Jamboree so you can get some idea by projecting another K. It looks like the extra K at Panorama doesn’t add any hills.

KY's Perri Bockrath won the Panorama 5K in 16:23 and was 8th at the Jamboree in 20:33 which was 16 seconds behind Cook. Tori Herman ran 16:29 and 20:49. OM's Ryan Helmers ran 16:53 and 20:55.

Kentucky also gives you a comparison between SEC champs and the SE Regional. At SEC Bockrath was 6th and 54 seconds behind Valby. At the SE Regional she was 9th and 28 seconds behind Tuohy. Herman was 73 behind Valby and 21 behind Tuohy. I assume Tuohy was taking the regional easy but by how much?

“Valby can do the final shake-off in the last 200m, like Orton shook off Roe in that video I posted.“

Not a chance. WO was/is a 2:05 800 runner, 4:29 miler, 8:49 3K and so on.

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