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Pointer of points wrote:
You can only know it if somebody gets caught. Otherwise you are only suspecting them. It is nice that you think you can redefine words but I am disallowing it.
You also dont know if they aren't caught. So it is possible they are doping but you don't know. That is the case with most dopers, as only a very small fraction are caught.
think first wrote:
George213 wrote:
Interestingly, if you look at the men-vs-women percentage across track events, 800m is actually the weakest in the book, which is 89% of the WR, compared to say, the 400m (90.3%), 1500m(89.5%), 10000m(89.7%) with the exception of the women-only HM and marathon record(88.1% and 88.7% respectively). And even on here, many people moan about how slo women are at the 800m compared to other distances.
I see it the same way. Cracking 2:00 should be a normal occurrence in high school for talented girls and the WR for women could be around 1:51.
Women 800m lacks depth as most fast girls want to stick with sprints and most girls with strength take on XC and 1500m and up.
If Russia gets around to make a comeback in clean olympic sports, they will definitely contribute to the depth as women 800m is somewhat of a traditional event there.
You can't base your conclusions on what you think "should" be possible, but on what has so far been a achieved. The 800m has been part of women's track at Olympic level since 1964. That's time enough to see what women can do over the distance. It isnt a fringe event.
As far as Russia's contribution is concerned, a top Russian 800m specialist showed that she lost 5 secs between her doped level and when she ran clean - 1.56 doped as against 2.01 clean. It is a tough event for women.
1.51 will never be run clean.
The claim that the 800m were a fringe event is totally bizarre. There is absolutely no reason to believe that fields in the last 50+ years were generally weaker than in the 1500m or 400m.
As I said, we have been through this in 2019 when Semenya etc. were banned and women suddenly seemed to struggle to break 2 min without the extra pacing provided. Sure, we might have had almost 10 years of women preferring a different distance for the obvious reason (although I am not aware of a particular case who changed to 1500m or 400 hurdles or so in the 2010s).
Look at all times lists for 800m and 1500m. 1% of 113 secs. is 1.1. sec. 3% about 3.4. For 1500m it is about 2.3 and 7 secs respectively.
Grant that there are also many suspicious marks in the women's 1500m, incl. the WR, within 1% the least suspicious is 1 (Hassan). So scratch this. But within 3% there are 36 athletes, many not extremely suspicious and in any case not most from almost30 year ago or more and from the eastern bloc.
For 800m there are 3 within one percent of WR (Olizarenko, Jelimo, Semenya), all suspect. There are 55 athletes below 1:56.7 (so the historical depth is 1.5 times that of 1500m, not less)
Of these about 28 are from the Eastern bloc and the marks 30 or more years old. 3 others are DSD persons, at least one ore two more suspected of DSD. A whole bunch are more recent eastern bloc or mid-1990s chines, count them yourselves. This list does not a allow an estimation what could be possible clean. Wereas for 1500m we can without total naivete assume that at leat 3:54-55 is possible clean as these marks were run by nonsuspicious athletes.
Mu is the clean word record holder without question. She will only continue to lower the record until she eventually also beats the doped record.
Armstronglivs wrote:
think first wrote:
So you do have an arbitratry "clean" number. What is it based on though, since you have not named a specific WR holder? 1:56 humanly possible for women based on __________?
I would estimate - and I use that word advisedly, because it isn't possible to be exact on this question - that 1.55-flat would be possible clean - if it hasn't been run yet. (It is still faster than Semenya.) The reasons I give are the historical trends of performance, that show far too many athletes sub-1.56 have a question mark over their performance, for either individual reasons or they come from countries where doping is known to be rife (the former E Bloc, Russia and Kenya, for example). Another commenter supplied a list of performances from the wr up to 1.58, and there was virtually nothing sub-1.56 I could say was clean with any confidence. However, I would be prepared to concede a top talent might run below that clean - hence 1.55/56 would be my ballpark for a clean wr. But below 1.54 - no.
However, as I have said, this is all conjecture based on what we find believable. These are my parameters. I can't prove I am right - but nor can I be proven wrong. The absence of a doping violation doesn't prove an athlete is clean.
*I meant to say I don't think anything below 1.55 would be clean.
Armstronglivs wrote:
Wrong on the first point, and wrong on the second. An 18 year old doesn't run at the level of a 'roided E Bloc athlete and be clean. Some countries lead in the doping stakes - as Russia has shown - and it is rife in Kenyan running, as the continued doping busts have shown. It doesn't have to be state-sponsored to be endemic.
This is poor logic
There are other 18 year old prodigies who have run incredibly fast, even faster than the much vaunted Eastern bloc runners. Usain Bolt ran 19.93 when he was 18. Tirunesh Dibaba ran 14:39 when she was 18. These were prodigies. Jelimo was also a once in a lifetime kind of prodigy.
As for doping, it is incredibly naive to suggest that Kenya is doping more than other countries. Remember that in an anonymous survey in 2011, 45% of athletes at the Pan Arab games admitted to doping and 30% of the athletes at the world championships admitted to doping. A BBC documentary projected that 50% of Olympic athletes are doping.
I don't think Athing Mu is doping.....I think Athing Mu is INTERSEX.
rerunner wrote:
Armstronglivs wrote:
Wrong on the first point, and wrong on the second. An 18 year old doesn't run at the level of a 'roided E Bloc athlete and be clean. Some countries lead in the doping stakes - as Russia has shown - and it is rife in Kenyan running, as the continued doping busts have shown. It doesn't have to be state-sponsored to be endemic.
This is poor logic
There are other 18 year old prodigies who have run incredibly fast, even faster than the much vaunted Eastern bloc runners. Usain Bolt ran 19.93 when he was 18. Tirunesh Dibaba ran 14:39 when she was 18. These were prodigies. Jelimo was also a once in a lifetime kind of prodigy.
As for doping, it is incredibly naive to suggest that Kenya is doping more than other countries. Remember that in an anonymous survey in 2011, 45% of athletes at the Pan Arab games admitted to doping and 30% of the athletes at the world championships admitted to doping. A BBC documentary projected that 50% of Olympic athletes are doping.
How many of these other prodigies you mention improved by the kind if margin Jelimo did at 18, of 7 secs in the 800m, to run a time only second to an E Bloc doper, and in only 4 months - and then never ran any faster.
That you say doping is everywhere only reinforces that it is also in Kenya. We know it is. The stream of doping busts amongst its distance runners tells us that.
aztec the moronic wrote:
I don't think Athing Mu is doping.....I think Athing Mu is INTERSEX.
I don't think you are a moron...... I KNOW you are a moron.
Aggie Track Fanatic wrote:
I agree--no one else we can be confident is clean has gotten close to it in decades.
But I've also given good reasons for thinking that Mu is precisely the kind of generational talent who has a legitimate shot at doing just that...and perhaps much sooner than anyone here seems to think.
She has better physical tools than any other woman 800m athlete in history (I would not be shocked to see her run 49 low or even 48 high for a relay split if she was running fresh and in a competitive outdoor 4 x 400, and I also believe she could go sub-4:05 for 1500 if she trained for it). But even more importantly she has the mental makeup of a champion. She has not needed anyone near her to run as fast as she already has, and she hasn't run nearly as fast as she's (even currently) capable of.
Just wait and watch and don't declare her a 1:5X athlete until you see how the full competitive year unfolds. And start popping some popcorn because there's every reason to believe she's gonna put on a show to remember this summer!
Prophet there. 49.84 OPEN!
That wasn't so hard to predict, off a 50.5 previous best. Meanwhile, Kratochvilova was 47 high. There's still a long way for Mu (or anyone) to go to beat 1.53.2. The 800 is a totally different race.
True. She is much better at 800. No doubt that she gets the world record.
Armstronglivs wrote:
That wasn't so hard to predict, off a 50.5 previous best. Meanwhile, Kratochvilova was 47 high. There's still a long way for Mu (or anyone) to go to beat 1.53.2. The 800 is a totally different race.
Duh. Thanks for your expertise. Lol
She got splits of 23.5w/26.2. Ideal energy output, tough conditions.
Without wind...and chasing Miller-Uebo this summer? 49.2
predictor of this wrote:
True. She is much better at 800. No doubt that she gets the world record.
Let me guess - you're an American.
cannot wait wrote:
Armstronglivs wrote:
That wasn't so hard to predict, off a 50.5 previous best. Meanwhile, Kratochvilova was 47 high. There's still a long way for Mu (or anyone) to go to beat 1.53.2. The 800 is a totally different race.
Duh. Thanks for your expertise. Lol
You know something about the 800 and how easy it will be to break a near forty year-old doped world mark?
Of course we dont know for a fact that mu is clean.She looks natural,but she's super fast,and american,which to me makes her suspicious.Theyre all a bunch of dopers,there,and they very rarely get caught.USA protects its athletes,even up and coming ones.When she comes out,and pops a 1.55(or even sub 1.55) at age 18,thatll surely raise a lot of questions,and red flags.Shes already run a 49.8 400,which is astonishing for a teenager.
Armstronglivs wrote:
cannot wait wrote:
Duh. Thanks for your expertise. Lol
You know something about the 800 and how easy it will be to break a near forty year-old doped world mark?
You forget that most people in this thread have some track experience. So yeah, we do understand the difference between 400m and 800m as well as 47s and 49s. No need to write obvious things in a children friendly way.
Once again, nobody needs 48s speed to run 1:53. It is possible to do it even with 52s, depending on ones strength. Krato was an overpowered beast with little strength, Mu is a very different kind of athlete.
Armstronglivs wrote:
predictor of this wrote:
True. She is much better at 800. No doubt that she gets the world record.
Let me guess - you're an American.
I partly agree with him and I'm from Taiwan. It's not a lock, but certainly possible for her.