It does not work that way. By that measure Tuohy should have run 9:10 based on that comparison. Earlier Hutchins ran 9:49 with two pacers pacing her out to 2400 meters. The John Hunt course is also downhill the last mile, so track conversions are difficult.
astro wrote:
It does not work that way. By that measure Tuohy should have run 9:10 based on that comparison. Earlier Hutchins ran 9:49 with two pacers pacing her out to 2400 meters. The John Hunt course is also downhill the last mile, so track conversions are difficult.
I should not wander into this, but just because runners have similar 5K times does not mean they will have similar 3200 m times. I bet the boys are a lot faster at the mile than Hutchins is so that would help them in the shorter 3200 m distance. I think I remember that Tuohy ran the Holmdel course about the same time as a 4:10 miler, just for one example. I think he ran close to 9 minutes flat. But I make no prediction on what time Hutchins might run. I hope she runs as fast as she can.
not a principal wrote:
That is correct. I mentioned only progression of boys, not girls. Clearly the 2 boys who ran 15:58 in the race who have 9:4x PRs fron two years ago would be expected to run 9:20 today if not faster. Once you settle on what type of 3200 shape they are in, then merely apply it to Hutchins today. Worst case, I would assume that those 2 guys would run 9:25 today so why would anyone not think she is capable of 9:29?
I've been there and done that....
I was not a runner, but a racer. My training was always to race
I commend any runner who beats their PBs, or trains to beat their recent PBs, but as other racers have posted on LRC, such efforts are not the same as racing.
Hutchins is heading into rarefied air...Cain was an exceptional HS runner, with the 800m and 1600m speed to back up her 3200m.
If you were talking about Semenya, I would have agreed with your estimate, because she has the testosterone to build up the strength so as to progress at the same rate as the boys you referenced.
9:29 for 3200 is about 9:32 for 2 miles. That is 4:46 per mile. She averaged 5:0x per mile in a 5k cross country race. Seems pretty reasonable.
It appears that the local organizer did a good job measuring the course but I would be happy to measure the course if they want to pick up my expenses.
Race to top wrote:
9:29 for 3200 is about 9:32 for 2 miles. That is 4:46 per mile. She averaged 5:0x per mile in a 5k cross country race. Seems pretty reasonable.
Her PB is 4:43.3 mile in 2019 (about 4:41.7 for 1600m) She ran a 4:45 mile indoors in the winter of 2020, and would have run much faster but the season was cancelled.
Without the races from last year's outdoor season, it will require much more effort to get below 4:40 for a mile this year. Hutchins' 9:49 was from Aug 2020, and that showed in her Huntsville 5K CC race of Nov 2020.
For a HS girl to go out in 4:46 for the 1st 1600m of a 3200m, one expects a PB 1600m of around 4:36-38.
That does not imply she can close in 4:46 pace, but probably close in 4:54-58, so that she would run a 3200m between 9:40 - 9:44. Hutchins didn't run a mile that fast yet.
If HS girl is more of a 3200m runner than a 1600m runner (i.e. not fast), and she expects to run even splits as you suggested, I would estimate she needs a 4:28 1600m (maybe faster) to run a 9:29 for 3200m.
However, Hutchins has a very good 400m from 2019, so she is not slow. Therefore, I think Hutchins needs a 1600m around 4:24 in order to run 9:29 for 3200m.
She will run 9:29 but only 4:35 for 1600.
Without the two pacers her 3200m would likely have been 9:55 or thereabouts. (About 6 second for the 6 paced laps plus energy saved.). There is no law against pacing/drafting, but it makes projections complicated.
156 boys broke 16. I think the course was short.
Tuohy was much kore competitive with the boys in the races she ran.
astro wrote:
Without the two pacers her 3200m would likely have been 9:55 or thereabouts. (About 6 second for the 6 paced laps plus energy saved.). There is no law against pacing/drafting, but it makes projections complicated.
True
Her stride doesn't imply speed based on the 5K race that I saw online, and I didn't find a track race to view.
Still, she broke 62 sec for the 400m in 2019, and probably could have run 59+ during 2020 spring track. I think she would have run about 4:38 for 1600m in 2020 spring track, maybe 1-2 seconds faster.
If she can get to 4:35 for 1600m during 2021 track, then 9:40 - 9:45 for 3200m (not paced) seems about right to me.
That is how many of the boys in the field had broken 16 before the day also. What do you make of the two boys who ran 15:58 to match her. Both had run 9:4x 2 years ago in track and both have PRs in XC faster than 15:58. Do you think they are at home thinking the course is short?
76chine wrote:
Her stride doesn't imply speed based on the 5K race that I saw online, and I didn't find a track race to view.
Still, she broke 62 sec for the 400m in 2019, and probably could have run 59+ during 2020 spring track. I think she would have run about 4:38 for 1600m in 2020 spring track, maybe 1-2 seconds faster.
If she can get to 4:35 for 1600m during 2021 track, then 9:40 - 9:45 for 3200m (not paced) seems about right to me.
here is a video if you have runnerspace account
https://www.armorytrack.com/gprofile.php?mgroup_id=45586&mgroup_event_id=574&year=2020&do=videos&video_id=295014Brown ran 9:39 but I don't think she can run 4:35.
FastTuohy wrote:
76chine wrote:
Her stride doesn't imply speed based on the 5K race that I saw online, and I didn't find a track race to view.
Still, she broke 62 sec for the 400m in 2019, and probably could have run 59+ during 2020 spring track. I think she would have run about 4:38 for 1600m in 2020 spring track, maybe 1-2 seconds faster.
If she can get to 4:35 for 1600m during 2021 track, then 9:40 - 9:45 for 3200m (not paced) seems about right to me.
here is a video if you have runnerspace account
https://www.armorytrack.com/gprofile.php?mgroup_id=45586&mgroup_event_id=574&year=2020&do=videos&video_id=295014
Thank you, but I don't.
Her cadence is too high for her pace, indicating limited room for improvement in 800m, 1600m and even 3200m. There is not enough spring in her step.
tracking wrote:
This Runners World article says she is scheduled to run a 5K track race in Nashville.
There is a "ASICS Best of the East HS Girls' 5000" on 12/4 so that is probably it. They will also have paced heats for women at 15:00, 15:30, 16:00, etc.
https://www.runnersworld.com/news/a34762354/jenna-hutchins-sets-national-cross-country-record/
I can't find any information about this race whatsoever that you mentioned: "There is a "ASICS Best of the East HS Girls' 5000" on 12/4". How did you find that information and will it be streamed, etc? Do we know if that's what she entered?
Thanks!
astro wrote:
It does not work that way. By that measure Tuohy should have run 9:10 based on that comparison. Earlier Hutchins ran 9:49 with two pacers pacing her out to 2400 meters. The John Hunt course is also downhill the last mile, so track conversions are difficult.
I'm curious about your common talking point about the "downhill" last mile. I looked at the Strava data for 10 different people and they all had the finish line 3-5 ft. lower than the second mile, which makes up little to no time.
However, the one noticeable hill on the course is during the third mile. The hill gains about 30 feet in elevation, which completely negates the elevation drop. The last 1k or so or loses about 20 feet but the course would be faster if the last mile was completely flat.
Because it is. The designer of the course said so and the video clearly shows it. Essentially there is a long downhill, leading to a gentle hill that does not rise 20 feet, leading to an even longer downhill that goes to a 3.5% grade all the way to the final turn. The Strava info is nice but meaningless. That is why a 5K xc record speed rates to 166. Just watch the race video.
astro wrote:
Because it is. The designer of the course said so and the video clearly shows it. Essentially there is a long downhill, leading to a gentle hill that does not rise 20 feet, leading to an even longer downhill that goes to a 3.5% grade all the way to the final turn. The Strava info is nice but meaningless. That is why a 5K xc record speed rates to 166. Just watch the race video.
What I observed, which lead to my "flat course" comment, is that her stride never seemed to change (unless I missed that).
Also I find it amusing how people are trying to calculate this. If you have a last mile with 1500 meters of downhill but a short 100 meter section that rises enough to seemingly equalize total elevation lost vs. elevation gained, it is still absolute a downhilll last mile. That supposed hill is just not sharp enough or long enough to offset the speed advantages.
It was mostly a gentle downhill, even in the middle so-called "rolling" section. Not enough severity to adversely affect the stride. A gentle downhill is the easiest surface to run on.