Now it gets interesting, Zane Robertson's ex-girlfriend Betty Desalegn (Jama Aden athlete) is busted for Biological Passport

Not Ramzi, but his new team/country. I'm sure someone said -- "you need to try CERA -- it's a new generation EPO and it's undetectable". That, combined with many changes in training, led to Ramzi's amazing progress. I don't want to answer any question about "PEDs" -- try to use a more specific term, that means the same to both of us. When you rephrase the question, be sure to indicates which athletes did NOT take steroids. I don't suggest "no effect", but that the suggested method over-estimates the effects, and that history of large populations suggest a much smaller effect.

High-Octane Dopers wrote:

Maybe that's what Ramzi did was "read studies" and "hope for the best," and the best did occur: ~14 second improvement from 02 to 04 & ~9 second improvement from 03 to 04 in the 1500, double gold at Helsinki & gold at Beijing. ?

...

Sure, then do you have any evidence at all that the fast PBs set by Boulami (2 WR times), Mourhit, Ramzi, Ceplak, Shobukhova, etc., could have been achieved without the use of PEDs?

I notice a lot of names I don't recognize -- are these all "top" athletes with "top" performances? Baumann and Kisorio are both interesting, in that they were running slow at the time they were busted for steroids. Baumann ran sub-13:00 only once, two years before being busted for steroids. Kisorio also told us he started looking at doping, only when he started running slow. This expected synergy between steroids and EPO resulted in some poor performances for Kisorio -- assuming EPO was involved at all -- in both cases, EPO use is just a favorable assumption.

High-Octane Dopers wrote:

Here's a few notable confirmed positives from Wikipedia's exhaustive list of doping cases in athletics (there's numerous steriods cases for both genders):

Dieter Bauman/nandrolone (1999)

Giuliano Battocletti/nandrolone (1999)

Andrea Longo/nandrolone (2001)

Ali Saidi-Sief/nandrolone (2001)

Mostafa Errebbah/stanozolol (2004)

Hezekiel Sepeng/nandrolone (2005)

Rajendra Bhandari/norandrosterone (2007)

Abdehadi Habassa/norandrosterone (2008)

Matthew Kisorio/nandrolone (2012)

The Kisorio case is interesting because in an interview he said that he blood doped in addition to the steroid use. However, in reading the description he gives it sounds more like he was injected with EPO as opposed to blood transfusions:

If you mean the Tubingen study, we've discussed this several times already: - EPO and blood doping is a subset of doping. One can be 14% while the other 29-45%, without contradiction. - the events of distance running is a subset of "athletics"

casual obsever wrote:

...the one proving the high prevalence of doping, though even rekrunner didn’t argue against that peer-reviewed, IAAF and WADA approved work...

And the 1- 2% is for tests, not athletes. These low results can be partially mitigated by conducting multiple tests for the same athlete.

good_wiggler wrote:

... The same study said, "World Anti-Doping Agency (WADA) oversees testing of several hundred thousand athletic blood and urine samples annually, of which 1–2% test positive."

casual obsever wrote:

What about history? Here a review from 1991:

http://www.annualreviews.org/doi/pdf/10.1146/annurev.me.42.020191.002313

“Thereafter, use of steroids diffused to endurance sports such as long-distance running and

swimming”

“thereafter” means, after the 60s, but read it for yourself.

If you prefer studies over examples (but you didn’t like the one proving the high prevalence of doping, though even rekrunner didn’t argue against that peer-reviewed, IAAF and WADA approved work):

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/8531609

“Rats receiving the anabolic-androgenic steroid ran 41% longer during the test of submaximal running endurance compared to the trained rats receiving saline (P < 0.05).”

+1

Again in the late 1990s, we saw about 1% improvement on the cold war era times. If any thing the quality and quantity of western times dropped of after 2000 when the first epo test came and local/national agencies in western countries began random OOC for epo and hgh (though weak and flawed). At the same time there was no OOC for epo and hgh in Africa.

You need to compare these various eras:

Pre 1989 vs 1990-1999

1990-1999 vs 2000-2009

2000-2009 vs 2010 on

It says alot. Ethiopia and Morocco have gone backwards since 2010.

rekrunner wrote:

Not Ramzi, but his new team/country. I'm sure someone said -- "you need to try CERA -- it's a new generation EPO and it's undetectable". That, combined with many changes in training, led to Ramzi's amazing progress.

CERA wasn't available until Jan/08. Ramzi must have been using large doses of first gen rocket fuel to register those astronomical high off-scores at Helsinki (157.8 & 148!). The report says a blood test taken IC was negative for evidence of transfusions. How he wasn't glowing IC is amazing (unless he had a little help ?).

CERA was being widely used in 08, especially in cycling. Ramzi was glowing at Beijing but a test wasn't available until 09 with the help of manufacturer, Roache. And that rocket-fueled performance by Ramzi was too much: runs a 52.9 or so last lap (pulls up at the finish!), holds off Kiprop at the line & destroys a world class field ? (there's a high-responder rek...no sense being oblivious anymore):

Subway Surfers Addiction wrote:

It says alot. Ethiopia and Morocco have gone backwards since 2010.

Yep...and Morocco continues to have ABP sanctions well into passport era. Moroccans were using huge doses of EPO and consequently getting popped right & left during their glory days...many times glowing IC. Isn't any wonder that some of their runners were putting up incredible times (some WRs) and showing significant jumps in performance (e.g., Boulami, Mourhit, Ramzi, Kaouch, etc). They were reckless & pushing the envelope for years. Drug testing didn't mean much to them.

It's their speed and the speed of their depth that has gone backwards, 1999 5000m final 3 of the top 4 were Moroccan born (Komen was 5th in 13:04) and they all ran sub 13.

casual obsever wrote:

And what about Baumann, Slaney, El Mehdi, Herzog, Kiyara, Kisorio?

If you prefer studies over examples (but you didn’t like the one proving the high prevalence of doping, though even rekrunner didn’t argue against that peer-reviewed, IAAF and WADA approved work):

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/8531609

“Rats receiving the anabolic-androgenic steroid ran 41% longer during the test of submaximal running endurance compared to the trained rats receiving saline (P < 0.05).”

"When the prize money comes in the doctors want a piece of your success. There are some doctors who settle down in popular athlete areas where you can find the training camps. These men just open a pharmacy and claim they are just selling legal medication. Then they approach the athletes. It is the same all over the country."

Uneducated, poor runners are taken advantage of by doctors who want their money. These runners from villages with little or no running water may be ignorant and desperate. You may have shown that greedy doctors want to sell drugs to athletes, but you haven't shown any evidence that steroids work on distance runners.

Rats? Seriously? Medication that works on rats do not always translate into success in human trials. If all you had to do was show efficacy in lab rats, then the FDA review process would be so easy. It doesn't work that way. You may have shown evidence in rats, but you haven't shown any evidence that steroids work on distance runners.

good_wiggler wrote:

Rats? Seriously? Medication that works on rats do not always translate into success in human trials. If all you had to do was show efficacy in lab rats, then the FDA review process would be so easy. It doesn't work that way. You may have shown evidence in rats, but you haven't shown any evidence that steroids work on distance runners.

But YOU haven't shown any evidence that steroids "don't" work.

Ask Alberto if steriods/testosterone don't work on distance runners.

casual obsever wrote:

“Rats receiving the anabolic-androgenic steroid ran 41% longer during the test of submaximal running endurance compared to the trained rats receiving saline (P < 0.05).”

"Rats receiving the anabolic-androgenic steroid ran 41% longer during the test of submaximal running endurance compared to the trained rats receiving saline".

This was an exhaustion test that shows rats running longer. They only received 8 weeks of training. This is like a human couch potato able to jog 10 blocks instead of 7 blocks. You're trying to sneak this one in when you know it doesn't show an increase in endurance speed for human runners in a 5k or 10k race.

The same study also said, "There was no further increase in maximal sprinting speed after an additional 4 wk of training and treatment with either anabolic-androgenic steroid or saline treatment."

You deliberately left that out. I wonder why. This study is a joke. Steroids don't increase sprinting speed? Rats do not equal humans.

Can't Believe What I'm Hearing wrote:

But YOU haven't shown any evidence that steroids "don't" work.

The onus is on you to convince us after you make an accusation that top runners are cheating. You have the burden of proof.

This is serious. You're damaging the sport with all these accusations. Sponsors may decrease the money they give out to runners.

Can you honestly walk up to Kipchoge at his village and look him in the eye and say, "You're a cheater"? He has a family. He works hard. He almost broke 2 hours in the marathon. He's a national hero. You would like a punk if you were to accuse him to his face.

good_wiggler wrote:

The onus is on you to convince us after you make an accusation that top runners are cheating. You have the burden of proof.

This is serious. You're damaging the sport with all these accusations. Sponsors may decrease the money they give out to runners.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fOYDiQeUUes

Can you honestly walk up to Kipchoge at his village and look him in the eye and say, "You're a cheater"? He has a family. He works hard. He almost broke 2 hours in the marathon. He's a national hero. You would like a punk if you were to accuse him to his face.

Who the hell is saying Kipchoge is doping? I think you're on the wrong thread pal. No one on this thread is accusing him of doping (you keep bringing up Kipchoge?). There's a list of *confirmed* runners testing positive for roids (some top runners in their day) posted here. You think these are false accusations? You say there's no evidence of roids working and yet there's dozens of confirmed cases of both genders (see Wiki's list of doping cases for athletics). Furthermore, Casual Observer posts some fine reseach on roids and endurance exercise and you have no rebuttal other than to spout off that they're only rodent studies. We'll, I've got news for you...there aren't any human trials with endurance athletes! So, in that case you do examine animal models, as well as anecdotal evidence with confirmed cases with athletes.

There is also some top runners listed as "likely doping" on the Fancy Bears hacked WADA document that was released several months ago (some with high priority ratings). Does it bother you that Rupp (+++) & Jager (+++++) are listed on the document? It's not our fault that the document was hacked and that some people want to discuss it. Maybe you should contact USADA and tell them they are damaging the sport with "likely doping" accusations against these and other runners on the list. Their anti-doping experts are the one's reading and analyzing the ABP modules and reaching the "likely doping" status...not any of us!

So the quality/quantity dropped from low to lower? At its peak, it was so small (for 85% of the world), it doesn't support the presence of a new drug causing 3-4% individual improvements "at the top".

Subway Surfers Addiction wrote:

Again in the late 1990s, we saw about 1% improvement on the cold war era times. If any thing the quality and quantity of western times dropped of after 2000 when the first epo test came and local/national agencies in western countries began random OOC for epo and hgh (though weak and flawed). At the same time there was no OOC for epo and hgh in Africa.

You need to compare these various eras:

Pre 1989 vs 1990-1999

1990-1999 vs 2000-2009

2000-2009 vs 2010 on

It says alot. Ethiopia and Morocco have gone backwards since 2010.

If a test wasn't available until 09, how did they bust Riccardo Ricci in July 2008? No doubt 2003-2006 were his best years, likely the result of EPO plus other changes in his training, after switching citizenship. In 2006, at his best, Ramzi ran slightly faster than the pre-EPO mid-80s performances of Cram and Coe. In 2007, the best he could do was 3:35. In 2008, when busted for CERA, he was running 3:33s. Ramzi seems to be one of the best examples of "EPO response", yet his best times are still pre-EPO era quality.

High-Octane Dopers wrote:

CERA wasn't available until Jan/08. Ramzi must have been using large doses of first gen rocket fuel to register those astronomical high off-scores at Helsinki (157.8 & 148!). The report says a blood test taken IC was negative for evidence of transfusions. How he wasn't glowing IC is amazing (unless he had a little help ?).

CERA was being widely used in 08, especially in cycling. Ramzi was glowing at Beijing but a test wasn't available until 09 with the help of manufacturer, Roache. And that rocket-fueled performance by Ramzi was too much: runs a 52.9 or so last lap (pulls up at the finish!), holds off Kiprop at the line & destroys a world class field ? (there's a high-responder rek...no sense being oblivious anymore):

Good question. WADA didn't validate the test until 09 when they recorded several positives from retested samples of medal winners from Beijing, including Ramzi's sample. If WADA had a valid test for CERA that was use during the 08 TdF, why wasn't it used at Beijing a few weeks later?

Huh? He has a top 50 all-time best of 3:29.14 (06). He also had a huge ~4% improvement in time from his PB of 3:39 in 03 to 3:30 a year later. ? Not bad for a runner described in the article as an "also ran" earlier in his career: