Hocker COOKED in the 1500/mile?

If the world's top 10 raced in two weeks, I would bet money on Kessler and Nader over Hocker.

No question.

There is a difference between greatest and best. Greatest is who, symbolically, will be remembered the most 10 years from now, and of course that is currently Hocker who is Olympic Champion. Although if we go by the measure of greatness, Jakob is inarguably greater and Kerr/Timothy Cheruiyot both have great arguments as well above Hocker. But Hocker is not the current best. His only good 1500m/Mile results came in a time trial where he ran 3:45.94 for the Mile. Otherwise, his results have been weak compared to Laros, Nader, Phanuel Koech, Reynold Cheruiyot, Nuguse, Tim Cheruiyot, Habz, Kerr. They have all been more impressive. Indoors just doesn't matter as much and Hocker isn't helping his case that he is losing to US runners.

Dumb post.

1. It is not at at ridiculous, seeing as the guy HASN'T WON A MAJOR 1500/MILE SINCE AUGUST 2024. (19 months and counting.)

2. Nope. There are many examples to the contrary.

2a. Kessler is clearly improving in the event. Hocker is not. (He hasn't sniffed 3:27, 3:28, or even 3:29 since his "magic" run in Paris. 🧪

2b. Nuguse has won 1500s since Aug 2024. Hocker has not. In 2025 Nuguse racked up Ws from Wannamaker in Feb to the Diamond League circuit in Aug to Fifth Avenue Mile in Sep. Hocker lost every 1500/mile he ran in 2025.

2c. See the difference?

Yeah, this worked well.

🤡🤡🤡

Do you not believe that Hocker would have beaten Nuguse (and the rest) had he raced the mile at Millrose rather than the 3k / 2 mile?

Nathan Green’s 800m PB is 1:46.2 in pretty limited outdoor attempts, weird point on that one his speed is generally considered pretty good. I really don’t think that’s his max.

I was not saying splits are the be-all, but an interesting point of comparison which is why I noted the different dynamic of that European Champs race. It was Habz leading and then running on Jakobs shoulder. A spot I’d love to see Jakob in. Funny how you don’t mention that Yared and co. got bounced wide and his and others’ stride disrupted by Bove nearly falling on the 7th laps final turn. I don’t think that helped their closing splits. Not sure why a Millrose race in the same season wouldn’t be relevant. Or Nuguse having a hard 3000m in the legs vs Habz having a 1500m heat instead wouldn’t factor? And so on.

All of this is to say, I don’t get what is so controversial about acknowledging Hocker underperformed in the 1500, but it was a challenging task to double. We don’t know how Jakob would’ve done and he hasn’t faced 12-person fields with an athlete as good as Nuguse in his indoor doubles. He has faced against guys who were fresh unlike him but as noted those guys were Gourley and Houser and we’ve talked about them enough really.

I feel bad for Hocker. He has so many glazers on this site that it's really just setting unrealistic expectations. He is still good in his own right and of course is one of the greatest US distance runners ever. But comparing him to Jakob is just funny. It's not even close. It's clear that without a pacemaker, he is becoming Jakob's greatness weakness which is that he can't win tactical finals anymore. He lost at the 2025 USA 1500m final, he didn't make the final at the WC, and now has lost the indoor USA championship and did not make the team. I still like him though, just not the posters on this site.

His speed is good but he has never been tested in a Jakob race. We know that Houser couldn't beat Jakob and Houser is at the same ability level.

Why would Jakob place himself in a worse position? Why would you want to be sitting on someone's shoulder with 200m to go on an indoor track in a championship race? It's very hard to pass someone on the turns. Not sure how that is relevant. I guess that would be a weakness for Jakob but it's quite simple to fix really (he gets to the front early in the race to avoid that which is exactly what he did in Nanjing/Apeldoorn). It didn't help Hocker when he sat on Nuguse.

As for the Bove fall, I responded by saying the Neil Gourley had to make up distance by going into lane 4 when responding to Jakob's move at 700m. After that, he was quite boxed in while Yared had a good ride for the first 1050m or so of the race. It really isn't that big of a difference. So Yared would close in 1:53 vs 1:53.8. Ok but my point still is the same.

I think you are mistaking which race happened in which season. The Millrose Mile where Nuguse beat Habs was in 2025. We are talking about Nuguse in 2026 compared to Habs in 2025, and Habs in 2025 closed better in a faster time than Nuguse. Aren't you all about comparing relevant forms, rather than looking into the future or past for answers?

That's a good point on Nuguse having a 3000m final while Habs only had a 1500m heat. It's hard to quantify how much Nuguse lost due to that and Habs was still all around better than anyone in that race despite the fall. His finishing time was faster, his final 100 was as fast, his final 800m was faster. My counter would be that Jakob had to also run a 1500m heat PLUS a hard 3000m final before his 1500m final in Nanjing and he still closed better than anyone in the USA final.

I don't think it's controversial to state that Hocker has a hard time with the US qualification system. But it's for different reasons that you are arguing. I think it's because Hocker just isn't good enough to double and that he should have beaten that field any other day. He just didn't peak well and had an added bonus of competing in a hard 3000m final the day earlier. You think it's because the competition is the toughest in the world, even harder than any of Jakob's finals, which I have shown is incorrect.

Agree to disagree, I don’t think you’ve shown it at all. You’ve really just talked up 1-2 athletes without really acknowledging enough that 12 people (and 7-8 you somewhat have to worry about) vs. 9 people (and 2-3 you somewhat have to worry about) makes the task much more challenging. From executing Jakobs last to first indoor tactic to beating everyone on the day. Jakobs indoor approach has been about probabilities and variables, he’s bet that he can outlast guys with deficiencies (Habz finishing speed, Gourley strength, Nader tactics) even in slower races. Outdoors he hasn’t tried that in global finals and I bet you can guess why.

When you throw 12 guys out there with more of them fresh and fit it makes the probability of an upset higher, that’s all. What if instead of Pallitsch you have Houser having learned from his 2025 experience throwing caution to the wind and going by you at 350 or 550 to go? What if you have Yared Nuguse tracking your every move from the front and not Habz? Yared also might make a determined hard move just like Aregawi did and he can hold it better. Or what if it’s Nathan Green kicking from the outside in the final meters having run a clean race?

This is to say it was a tough and larger field that you are somewhat underestimating based on different contexts. It’s OK nobody thinks Hocker > Jakob at doubling just yet.

You’re using a race from four years ago where Jakob had covid as evidence that he would struggle against Green and Houser in his 2025 form, never mind the fact he defeated Houser in 2025 to complete a more demanding double than 2026 USAs lol. Is it possible for you to make an honest argument?

And why do you keep bringing up Yared? Like Cole, he was ultimately a non-factor in Sunday’s race, so if someone were to prevent Jakob from winning, it wouldn’t be him.

In your first post on page 15, you claim “all I’ve argued is that doubling was no small feat,” but that’s not true. You’ve spent the last five pages arguing that 2026 USAs had a deeper field than 2025 Euros/Worlds in an effort to defend Hocker’s poor showing, which is odd considering you’ve already admitted he didn’t run well and that Jakob would have fared better! Why you’re still insisting Jakob would have lost this race is anyone’s guess. Is it your opinion that Jakob would have failed to qualify for Worlds if he were an American?

This thread started with an inflammatory, low-effort hate post that‘s currently sitting at 83% downvotes, and rightfully so. Hocker isn’t cooked at 1500m, but it’s legitimate to question if he should really be ranked number 1 in the world, especially given his performance at USAs. A 3:27 Olympic gold medalist is going to be held to a higher standard, especially when fans compare him to Jakob so frequently. Finishing 5th at USAs simply doesn’t cut it. Fatigue, a deep field, and whatever other excuses you can come up with will never justify a performance like that. Someone of his caliber should make that team every single time, and it isn’t hating to point that out.

Relax. Reasonable people can disagree. I don’t know why it’d possibly be definitive Jakob would win both events every time, or qualify in both each time. If you can’t keep up, that is the debate. Everything else is arguments over Jakobs past doubles and how they stack up. I simply don’t think his past doubles are the same. I argued why, and never argued Hocker is Jakob or ran a good race in the 1500, he didn’t. But he faced a tall task and it is also not 100% that Jakob runs a great race every time either. Yes he’ll tell you why, but it is what it is.

But if you think Jakob being able to double at USAs is a lock I don’t know what to tell you. Or if you fail to see why a Worlds with one real challenger in Aregawu and a 1500 with 9 guys and only 2 other guys who were in better than 3:34/3:52 form is different than this years race Im not sure what to tell you. Not to mention Yared was a non-factor because in part due to the field size/depth of talent with guys like Davis Bove making somewhat crazy moves and then having an issue on one spike..

I’ll agree to disagree as well. I don’t think the 12 person final is as big a disadvantage. On your point about Jakob’s tactics, I’m not really sure why he chose the tactic he did from 2022-2024 at a global championship. I think he said once that it was the best way to win but it seems too hard to try and set a hard pace from start to finish. I wonder what his strategy would have been in Tokyo if he never got injured. Would he emulate Nanjing/Apeldoorn but close in 1:46-1:47 like El G in 2004, seems possible.

Great Q maybe post-injury we’ll see him change things including how he approaches these unpaced races. Perhaps the 3:26.6 made him feel invincible. Ultimately he smoked everyone in that race, but as we know none of the podium was in it, and a time trial with wave light and pacing is a different arena.

Be reasonable, then. Don’t use a race that 2022 Jakob ran while ill as evidence that winter 2025 Jakob would be unable to front run against the 2026 USAs field.

I’m aware of what the debate is which is exactly why I directed you back to it. I asked you if Jakob would have failed to make the US team, and rather than answer, you went back to looking at field depth and everything else which you just finished explaining to me is not the debate lol.

You’re trying to frame this like it’s uncertain whether Jakob Ingebrigtsen would beat Nathan Green and Luke Houser in a 1500 the majority of the time. If your definition of “lock” is that someone wins literally 100% of the time, then fine, Jakob isn’t a lock (and neither is anyone else). But by any standard use of the term, he is absolutely a lock to win that USAs race, and nothing you’ve said to dispute that is convincing.

We can sit around all day and think up random edge cases that result in him losing, but what’s the point? The reality is you would expect an athlete of Jakob’s caliber to win that race every time. Ditto Hocker, which I think poses an interesting question:

Is Hocker overrated as a dual threat, or was this race an off day? I’m inclined to believe the latter and would still pick him to beat that field in that scenario every time, but maybe I’m wrong.

If the question is Jakob vs the 1500 field at USAs after a loaded 3K night before I don’t think it’s a lock. Maybe he wins 70% of the time, maybe more like 50-50. That’s where we disagree. He like Hocker would be the favorite, but in indoor track with 11 competitors (I think 9 of them with the advantage of being fresh) things get less predictable. It’s not about beating one athlete persay, but beating the field. In a 3:36 race, there’re many guys capable of closing fast, and there’re many pitfalls.

That's not who I consider the best. The best is who is most likely to win the next world championship (or Ultimate Championship/Olympics). Hoey a month or two ago may have been in the best 800 shape in the world, but I wouldn't consider him the best 800m runner in the world.

In predicting who's most likely to win the Ultimate Championships this year, I'd say it's between Hocker, Nader, and Laros.

Hocker has been in the best peak shape the last couple years imo, he looked the best in the semi-final last year (and confirmed his fitness with the 5000) and was easily the best in 2024.

Nader's kick at world champs last year was underrated, however his tactics of always being mid/back of the pack seem to hurt him, I'd take Hocker as slightly better than Nader in a medium paced race and much better in a fast race.

Laros is the biggest question mark, it seems he was injured during the winter as he said he running more and more each week 3 weeks ago in an instagram video and was doing assisted running (not sure what it's called, but makes you have less impact). I do think he has the highest potential, but due to his injury I'd still favor Hocker, who has shown great fitness indoors.

Hocker was in prime fitness and placed 5th at USAs. I wouldn’t back him anymore. Maybe if he wins USAs again outdoors, but that ship seems to be sailing.

Did you just describe Cole Hocker? har har

It is not really Hocker hate. Hocker is okay, although he seems to confuse having "the best kick" with being "the best".

Rather, it is USA hyperbole that is tedious. 2 weeks ago declaring Hocker as the best distance runner and miler in the world. He then proceeds to come 5th at US Indoors, continuing his trends of bad race tactics. I think some discussion and criticism about these claims is warranted.