Great interview with Steve Cram - says Jakob has no chance of WRs this year

Armstronglivs wrote:

objectiveobserver wrote:

Now you have claimed on so many threads and also in this one that Jakob has limited
speed over 200m and 800m.
Your “argumentation” seems to be: No way Jakob is as fast as your heroes of the past John Walker and Peter Snell who according to you ran high 22 and low 22 respectively in the
200m. To “prove” your claim you by sheer FANTASY (I am using one of your favorite terms) “estimate” that Jakob just only can break 24 in the 200m.
I suppose you don´t know ANYTHING about Jakob´s 200m performance but I can disclose that he DID ran an indoor 200m at age 13 and 3 month. I would like you to guess how fast he ran BEFORE my next post where I also will provide a video of the race.
Before I will, however, inform you about how fast good, young sprinters run in the 200m. In my athletic club we had a good young runner who came from soccer at the age of 12. At age 13 he ran low 26sec in the 200m. He went on to run high 23 in the 200m with 1.3 sec meter headwind in the national youth champs at age15 beating a number of talented young runners. He also won the 100m in 11.69 still with headwind.
Unfortunately this runner went back to soccer so we don´t know how he would have progressed but I assume he would have been sub 23 a year or two later and at least sub 22 in adulthood barring illness and injury.
I base this assumption on the fact that one of the guys my club mate beat in the above 200m did continue his athletic career. His name is Andreas Trajkovski. Here is a link to his IAAF page.

Link:worldathletics.org/athletes/north-mace...

As can be seen Andreas ran 22.55 in the 200m at the age of 16 and a PB of 21.51 at the age of 18 and again at the age of 29! (will somebody tell Salvatore that his theory of a short window where an athlete can hold his peak shape has been shot down once more; another example was Marcin Lewandowski who had a streak period of 11 years where he was close to his 800m PB of 1:43.7). Andreas is by the way mainly a long jumper.
So Armstrong, I think you should understand that the time you estimate for Jakob in the 200m is similar to what a talented (but not top) sprinter can run in his early teens?
Do you think that is realistic?
-----------------------
Do you have any idea what Jakob ran in the 800m at age 12 and age 14. If not, don´t you think you should have investigated this before you boldly claimed that he is an inferior 800m runner to most of the current milers?
See my next post.

That's a pretty strained argument, to refer to Jakob's times at age 13 to make an argument he has speed. The comparison also with another runner is irrelevant - he isn't Jakob.

The only 400m time I am aware for Jakob is his listed pr, which is 51secs, achieved when he was 16. He will undoubtedly be faster now but I don't think it will be much. He will have added substantially to his endurance since then but speed is less amenable to large improvements.

There are several reasons why I think he lacks speed. If he was faster he would have recorded better 800 times than 1:46-47, and he would have been good enough to compete over the distance. He isn't - so he doesn't. Cram was a sub 1:43 runner over the 800 and is believed to have run at least 23s for the 200. He is undoubtedly faster than Jakob. Snell was a 22s runner for the 200 and a 1:44 runner over the 800 (on grass). Jakob is nowhere near that. Elliot ran 1:46x - the same as Jakob - on a dirt track. He was a 50s runner over the quarter. That I believe is closer to where Jakob is located. Nowhere near 48s.

The simple fact is if Jakob could run 22x for the 200 (and so 47-48 for the 400) he would be a world class 800/1500 runner, and not a 1500/5k runner.

But further to that, we see that Jakob doesn't have the speed of some of his 1500 competitors; if they are with him at the finish he can be outsprinted. His strength, so to speak, is his phenomenal endurance, not his speed.

Armstronglivs wrote:

That's a pretty strained argument, to refer to Jakob's times at age 13 to make an argument he has speed. The comparison also with another runner is irrelevant - he isn't Jakob.

The only 400m time I am aware for Jakob is his listed pr, which is 51secs, achieved when he was 16. He will undoubtedly be faster now but I don't think it will be much. He will have added substantially to his endurance since then but speed is less amenable to large improvements.

There are several reasons why I think he lacks speed. If he was faster he would have recorded better 800 times than 1:46-47, and he would have been good enough to compete over the distance. He isn't - so he doesn't. Cram was a sub 1:43 runner over the 800 and is believed to have run at least 23s for the 200. He is undoubtedly faster than Jakob. Snell was a 22s runner for the 200 and a 1:44 runner over the 800 (on grass). Jakob is nowhere near that. Elliot ran 1:46x - the same as Jakob - on a dirt track. He was a 50s runner over the quarter. That I believe is closer to where Jakob is located. Nowhere near 48s.

The simple fact is if Jakob could run 22x for the 200 (and so 47-48 for the 400) he would be a world class 800/1500 runner, and not a 1500/5k runner.

But further to that, we see that Jakob doesn't have the speed of some of his 1500 competitors; if they are with him at the finish he can be outsprinted. His strength, so to speak, is his phenomenal endurance, not his speed.

Trollminator wrote:

Armstronglivs wrote:

That's a pretty strained argument, to refer to Jakob's times at age 13 to make an argument he has speed. The comparison also with another runner is irrelevant - he isn't Jakob.

The only 400m time I am aware for Jakob is his listed pr, which is 51secs, achieved when he was 16. He will undoubtedly be faster now but I don't think it will be much. He will have added substantially to his endurance since then but speed is less amenable to large improvements.

There are several reasons why I think he lacks speed. If he was faster he would have recorded better 800 times than 1:46-47, and he would have been good enough to compete over the distance. He isn't - so he doesn't. Cram was a sub 1:43 runner over the 800 and is believed to have run at least 23s for the 200. He is undoubtedly faster than Jakob. Snell was a 22s runner for the 200 and a 1:44 runner over the 800 (on grass). Jakob is nowhere near that. Elliot ran 1:46x - the same as Jakob - on a dirt track. He was a 50s runner over the quarter. That I believe is closer to where Jakob is located. Nowhere near 48s.

The simple fact is if Jakob could run 22x for the 200 (and so 47-48 for the 400) he would be a world class 800/1500 runner, and not a 1500/5k runner.

But further to that, we see that Jakob doesn't have the speed of some of his 1500 competitors; if they are with him at the finish he can be outsprinted. His strength, so to speak, is his phenomenal endurance, not his speed.

Correct and not even the most high tech shoes, best drugs or pacing lights are going to make up for his lack of speed in the 1500. He is not close to El G level in this event.

Salvitore Stitchmo wrote:

Came back to this thread to see what was going on. My goodness.

At the end of the day what I ultimately take away from this is that there are many people giving their opinions on this topic who appear to unequivocally know more about 8 and 1500m running than the former world record holder in the 1500m and the mile - the first man to ever break 3.30 and the man that won the first ever world title in the event. He's also still the 6th fastest man ever and has run the 13th fastest time ever by anyone over the mile and he once beat the reigning Olympic 800m champion over 800m in a year when he (Cruz) still broke 1.43 4 times and ran the 4th fastest time of his career.

Oh and he did all this back in the mid 80's without modern track or product benefits and pacemaking lights.

We have it all from guys who think Coe, Ovett, Cram weren't actually good runners through to even some delusional toothpick who is referencing a freaking Macedonian long jumper as some kind of evidence as to why Ingebrigtsen's elite window will be twice as long as any of the great milers in history I mean my god, what are we talking about here.

We get it - Steve Cram doesn't know his arm from his ar$ehole when it comes to MD running. Let's make sure we never lose this thread so we can all come back and bash him when Jakob proves him wrong in the next 15 years.

Salvitore Stitchmo wrote:

Came back to this thread to see what was going on. My goodness.

At the end of the day what I ultimately take away from this is that there are many people giving their opinions on this topic who appear to unequivocally know more about 8 and 1500m running than the former world record holder in the 1500m and the mile - the first man to ever break 3.30 and the man that won the first ever world title in the event. He's also still the 6th fastest man ever and has run the 13th fastest time ever by anyone over the mile and he once beat the reigning Olympic 800m champion over 800m in a year when he (Cruz) still broke 1.43 4 times and ran the 4th fastest time of his career.

Oh and he did all this back in the mid 80's without modern track or product benefits and pacemaking lights.

We have it all from guys who think Coe, Ovett, Cram weren't actually good runners through to even some delusional toothpick who is referencing a freaking Macedonian long jumper as some kind of evidence as to why Ingebrigtsen's elite window will be twice as long as any of the great milers in history I mean my god, what are we talking about here.

We get it - Steve Cram doesn't know his arm from his ar$ehole when it comes to MD running. Let's make sure we never lose this thread so we can all come back and bash him when Jakob proves him wrong in the next 15 years.

Armstronglivs wrote:

That's a pretty strained argument, to refer to Jakob's times at age 13 to make an argument he has speed. The comparison also with another runner is irrelevant - he isn't Jakob.

The only 400m time I am aware for Jakob is his listed pr, which is 51secs, achieved when he was 16. He will undoubtedly be faster now but I don't think it will be much. He will have added substantially to his endurance since then but speed is less amenable to large improvements.

There are several reasons why I think he lacks speed. If he was faster he would have recorded better 800 times than 1:46-47, and he would have been good enough to compete over the distance. He isn't - so he doesn't. Cram was a sub 1:43 runner over the 800 and is believed to have run at least 23s for the 200. He is undoubtedly faster than Jakob. Snell was a 22s runner for the 200 and a 1:44 runner over the 800 (on grass). Jakob is nowhere near that. Elliot ran 1:46x - the same as Jakob - on a dirt track. He was a 50s runner over the quarter. That I believe is closer to where Jakob is located. Nowhere near 48s.

The simple fact is if Jakob could run 22x for the 200 (and so 47-48 for the 400) he would be a world class 800/1500 runner, and not a 1500/5k runner.

But further to that, we see that Jakob doesn't have the speed of some of his 1500 competitors; if they are with him at the finish he can be outsprinted. His strength, so to speak, is his phenomenal endurance, not his speed.

justanothercuriousdude wrote:

Armstronglivs wrote:

That's a pretty strained argument, to refer to Jakob's times at age 13 to make an argument he has speed. The comparison also with another runner is irrelevant - he isn't Jakob.

The only 400m time I am aware for Jakob is his listed pr, which is 51secs, achieved when he was 16. He will undoubtedly be faster now but I don't think it will be much. He will have added substantially to his endurance since then but speed is less amenable to large improvements.

There are several reasons why I think he lacks speed. If he was faster he would have recorded better 800 times than 1:46-47, and he would have been good enough to compete over the distance. He isn't - so he doesn't. Cram was a sub 1:43 runner over the 800 and is believed to have run at least 23s for the 200. He is undoubtedly faster than Jakob. Snell was a 22s runner for the 200 and a 1:44 runner over the 800 (on grass). Jakob is nowhere near that. Elliot ran 1:46x - the same as Jakob - on a dirt track. He was a 50s runner over the quarter. That I believe is closer to where Jakob is located. Nowhere near 48s.

The simple fact is if Jakob could run 22x for the 200 (and so 47-48 for the 400) he would be a world class 800/1500 runner, and not a 1500/5k runner.

But further to that, we see that Jakob doesn't have the speed of some of his 1500 competitors; if they are with him at the finish he can be outsprinted. His strength, so to speak, is his phenomenal endurance, not his speed.

I respectfully disagree with you here… (addressed the 400m speed in another post in this thread). And with Cram /Wightman/Kerr and a lot of others you seem to be in agreement of when it comes to how a 800m speed functions…

In my opinion there’s no advantage to have a good 800m speed vs a good strength in the closeup of a fast 1500m race. A good 800m pb can get you to a good 1200m time / split in a 1500m, but the next 300m will be determined by how much you have left in the tank -not your 800m pb (you don’t come close to that speed in a fast 1500m anyway). And this is not purely theory: A slow guy like Nordås runs the fastest last lap and home straight in the fast 2023 WC..!

How fast is Jakob in an all out 800m? We simply don’t know (neither in a 400m). But given the huge improvement of all other distances the last years it’s un logically that 4/800m pb’s are totally un effected… Well, Jakob ran a slow 1.47.24 in 2022 (I saw the race from the tribune, and was disappointed; but even the winner with a 1.43 pb ran slow) -does that mean a 1.45 was out of reach in 2023? Not at all -Jakob was a totally different quality runner in 2023 than in 2022, in almost all distances (His indoors 3.30.60 isn’t that bad, but neither very good, and his WC 2022 5000m win -with drinking breaks- overrated -the field with good runners were much weaker than expected because of multiple reasons, and f.ex Grijalva with a weak pb was fourth. And Jakob ran significantly slower also in the 1500m and mile -despite good conditions- than in 2023, and it’s a huge red flag that he lost to Wightman in 3.29). 2023 was a whole other ballgame -Jakob sped away from everyone on the home straight -if healthy..!

justanothercuriousdude wrote:

Armstronglivs wrote:

That's a pretty strained argument, to refer to Jakob's times at age 13 to make an argument he has speed. The comparison also with another runner is irrelevant - he isn't Jakob.

The only 400m time I am aware for Jakob is his listed pr, which is 51secs, achieved when he was 16. He will undoubtedly be faster now but I don't think it will be much. He will have added substantially to his endurance since then but speed is less amenable to large improvements.

There are several reasons why I think he lacks speed. If he was faster he would have recorded better 800 times than 1:46-47, and he would have been good enough to compete over the distance. He isn't - so he doesn't. Cram was a sub 1:43 runner over the 800 and is believed to have run at least 23s for the 200. He is undoubtedly faster than Jakob. Snell was a 22s runner for the 200 and a 1:44 runner over the 800 (on grass). Jakob is nowhere near that. Elliot ran 1:46x - the same as Jakob - on a dirt track. He was a 50s runner over the quarter. That I believe is closer to where Jakob is located. Nowhere near 48s.

The simple fact is if Jakob could run 22x for the 200 (and so 47-48 for the 400) he would be a world class 800/1500 runner, and not a 1500/5k runner.

But further to that, we see that Jakob doesn't have the speed of some of his 1500 competitors; if they are with him at the finish he can be outsprinted. His strength, so to speak, is his phenomenal endurance, not his speed.

Jakob ran 51.03 still 16 years of age. But there is a context here: Unlike f.ex Jake Wightman, who ran 4 races in the 400m the year he pb’ed -48.34, Jakob got very little experience with starting blocks.

But maybe more important: This 400m was scheduled exactly one hour after the 3000m (which Jakob solo ran in a new pb -by 22 sec. -It was an all out effort, since he tried to go sub 8 in the wind. He missed with 2 hundreds of a second. But the point is: He was probably leggy in the 400m so soon after a fast 3000m. And it was (as mentioned) windy (I know the track - very few pb’s there. And the flags flapped in the wind…) -very tempting to give Jakob at least a 50.50 here…

Jakob ran 1.49.40 the year (2017) he ran this only 400m. In 2020 he ran 3 sec faster in the 800m (1.46.44). Some will then give him a 1.5 sec improvement in the 400m: (49.0). A little too fast in my view -his 1.46.44 was a better paced race, among other things… So let’s say 49.5…(in 2020).

Can a mid distance athlete improve his 400m after his 20 th. birthday..? Yes, why not! Take a look on Jake Wightman - he was 22 when he ran 48.34. (2016). But in 2022 he ran way faster in the 800m than in 2016. So what is his real capacity in the 400m? -Probably 47 high (like Lewandowski who has almost identically 800m pb). Because 1 sec slower than Coe (46 high) in the 400m aligns pretty good to a approximately 2 sec slower 800m pb (1.41.73 - 1.43.65). But then the same could be said about current Jakob - if he is 2 sec (or even less) slower in the 800m than Wightman and Lewandowski then he should only lose 1 sec in the 400m. Meaning Jakob in 48 high..!

Well, this isn’t science, and athletes are different. And one could say the specific endurance Jakob got clouds the math. But does it really when we only compare the (relatively short distances) 800 and 400m..?