don't count out newbury park. they are going for a 5 peat
They will most likely not even qualify for NXN.
Ventura, San Clemente, Trabuco Hills, and Great Oak are looking to be the best 4 teams in CA
In California you can never predict this stuff there is just so much depth anyone can have talent or develop talent out of nowhere. But there will probably be 3 CA teams in the top 10 at NXN
These are the stats from the California team placements at NXN in the past 7 years.
They always have at-least 2 or 3 teams in the top 10. In the past 12 years, 6 years had a California team win it. There is a reason why they always get 1 or 2 auto bids.
The Niwot girls should be the favorite. They finished 2nd last year. Their 7th runner was 52nd at NXN in 2022. They had 10 girls run sub 19 minutes last year and 7 of them will return this season. Their top runner was freshman Addy Ritzenhein and it was only her first season of racing Cross Country. It will be fun to see what she does this season. They also gain freshman Wendy Cheruiyot who is the daughter of Edna Kiplagat and will likely make an impact.
The Niwot girls should be the favorite. They finished 2nd last year. Their 7th runner was 52nd at NXN in 2022. They had 10 girls run sub 19 minutes last year and 7 of them will return this season. Their top runner was freshman Addy Ritzenhein and it was only her first season of racing Cross Country. It will be fun to see what she does this season. They also gain freshman Wendy Cheruiyot who is the daughter of Edna Kiplagat and will likely make an impact.
Lone Peak is another girls team that can challenge for the win. They return everybody. They also have Andie Aagard who took 12th at NXN but won NXR and didn’t start running until last year. She has no track results though. Saratoga will need to have their 4th and 5th to step up in order to win again
Any chances that Southwest gets sent two at-large teams this year on the girls side? Niwot and Lone Peak should both podium. Air Academy should finish high like they did last year and they return everyone from last year. American Fork will be really good also. They took 5th at NXR last year but they return all of their scorers.
Actually, they return 5 under 18:10 for 5k. They also have improved incoming soph Beltran (5:07 1600 / 10:55 3200 at the state meet and placed 4th in the 3200). With her and new freshman Cheruiyot added to the returning 5, this makes the team 7-deep.
I think both SW girls and boys should get 2 at larges. I think sometimes this region is overlooked because most of their times are at altitude, but they're arguably the deepest region for both the boys and girls.
Yes and Herriman and Crater were just that good last year that they could crush all cali teams outside of Newbury Park (they did place 3rd and 4th at NXN). According to the results in 2022 cali teams placed 1st, 6th, 7th, and 16th at NXN and their 5th fastest team that didn't make NXN got 2nd at runninglane championships. Along with the historical results in the past, I would say they are fairly rated.
However, I believe that because Herriman and American Fork will be so good next year other southwest teams may not have to prove that they can beat Cali teams in order to get 1-2 at-large bids.
Imagine calling a region that has won the past 5 out of 10 national championships overrated.
The question really is how have the at large bids performed and in hindsight do they seem like the right picks. Other than the mistake of not taking Rocky Mountain last year, I’ve no idea.
Imagine calling a region that has won the past 5 out of 10 national championships overrated.
The question really is how have the at large bids performed and in hindsight do they seem like the right picks. Other than the mistake of not taking Rocky Mountain last year, I’ve no idea.
rocky mountain was overlooked because dumb milesplit was fawning over mideast teams, jesuit la, and tully's speed ratings. and were completely underranking and undermining crater and jesuit. tully speed ratings are always horrible for woodbridge so they underestimate crater's performance there