Division III OUTDOOR Predictions

800: Bofa - Whitworth

1500: Hardbarger - RIT

Steeple: Kosgei - Hamilton

5k: Kosgei - Hamilton

10k: Kaul - Oshkosh

Observer 555 wrote:

800: Bofa - Whitworth

1500: Hardbarger - RIT

Steeple: Kosgei - Hamilton

5k: Kosgei - Hamilton

10k: Kaul - Oshkosh

Completely agree with you on everything but Hardbarger. I just can't see him pulling it off at nationals. I don't question his ability...but just don't associate RIT with producing a national champ. Sorry.

Apparently you didn't see Hardbarger's amazing 65 second first lap at ECACs before falling back and dropping out. I'd be surprised if he showed up to nationals. He's either injured or out of shape.

predictions for distance races (top 8)

800-

Jimmy O- 1:50.3

Bofa- 150.5

Roach- 150.9 Other AAs -Leiter, Lang, Sames, Baechle,

Zeien

1500-

Chaffee- 3:48

Vincent- 3:49

Jimmy O- 3:49 Other AAs- Leiter, O'Neill, Parker,

Ekstrom,Brandon

Steeple-

Kosgei- 8:56

Zdroik- 8:59

Thistle- 9:03 Other AAs- Wirtz, Kubiak, O'Brien,

Pecora, McGuire

5000-

Kaul- 14:23

Kosgei- 14:27

Chenoweth- 14:30 Other AAs- Faller, Flynn, Harvey,

Heymann, Wilhelmy

10000-

Christianson- 30:12

Kaul- 30:14

Flynn- 30:18 Other AAs-Chenoweth, Schneider,

VanKampen, Heymann, Spain

I know where the criticisms will come from...

so please do so!

bbbb wrote:

I know where the criticisms will come from...

so please do so!

No criticisms here. If I can't propose something better (and I surely can't), I'm not going to criticize! Also, kudos for predicting places *and* times--whether you're proven right or wrong, at least you're willing to put yourself out there.

One "dark horse" to add: Turlip (NYU) in the 1500. He's definitely on the upswing. Which is not to say that other people aren't...

And I'm interested to see that you went with Schneider in the 10,000--where he's seeded ninth, IIRC--and not the 5,000, where he's seeded second.

is nationals going to be live?

Meant to ask: any predictions on the women's side?

Women! This is exactly correct, trust me I am from the future.

800:

1. Bergstrom

2. Herrick

3. Sprangers

1500:

1. Mitchell

2. Borner

3. Reich

3kST:

1. Loeffler

2. Shea

3. Perleburg

5k:

1. Mitchell

2. Paulsen

3. Philbrook

10k:

1. Philbrook

2. McNamara

3. Surtees

Brian Chenoweth is on fire and I predict him to not only win the 10k, but to stop at lap 16 and take a smoke break. For a 30flat guy, he sure smokes a lot of marlboros. He will then go on to finish 3rd in the 5k to Kaul and Kosgei who close in 1:57 each with Kaul nipping Kosgei at the line.

Anyone in their right mind knows that Ashley Schnell is going to put the Coe girls team in the top 20 with 2 AA placings again. This time its the 1500 and 5k. Count on it.

Anyone know of any parties in Marietta this weekend?

I say Herrick takes the 800 in low 2:07

nycxc wrote:

I say Herrick takes the 800 in low 2:07

I agree that Herrick will win the 800.

And I'm calling McNamara for the 10k.

Not putting the 800m champ from indoors in the top 3 even!?!? Give Graybill more credit than that. If she's anywhere near the front with 200 to go my $$'s on her. She has wheels!!

And I'm interested to see that you went with Schneider in the 10,000--where he's seeded ninth, IIRC--and not the 5,000, where he's seeded second.

Schneider did run that 10k solo and early in the season, so I can see him being largely under-seeded there.

I would say she has a shot at top 3, but she's only run a 2:11 in outdoor. And despite running a 2:09 at indoor nats, neither Herrick nor Bergstrom were in the race. So I still say Herrick has the best shot... but anything can happen.

Will the races be streamed online?

800 - Roach, Bofa, O'Brien

Roach has really turned it on this outdoor season, and to my knowledge has not lost once, despite running against a lot of fast guys. Bofa, the defending champ, and O'Brien, with a 1:48.6 to his name are likely going to make this one of the best races of the meet, but O'Brien will be coming back from the 1500 just 90 minutes earlier, and Bofa hasn't run quite as fast, so I have to give the edge to Roach. Leiter from Frostburg state could sneak in the top 3, as he has the top 1500 time and placed 5th last year despite doubling.

1500 - O'Brien, Leiter, Chaffee

Toughest race to pick by far. Strongest field in a very long time, maybe even ever, despite no Kaul or Kosgei. Leiter has been impressive this season, O'Brien is a beast, Chaffee from Williams was second last year in 3:47, and there are simply a lot of experienced and up-and-coming guys with damn good times. I think it'll be fast again this year, and very close, and my predictions could easily be way off, but I think O'Brien finally gets it.

5000 - Kaul, Kosgei, Chenoweth

Should be a great duel between the top two, but Kaul has simply looked better this year in indoors and outdoors. I think both of them will win their first event relatively easily, and we will see a very spicy finish. Kosgei is a bit of a wildcard, since his solo 5k was pretty mediocre (and wouldn't have gotten him in a lot of years) and even his steeple was slower than last year. He proved indoor that he is talented enough to blow people away whether he's raced fast before or not though, so I think he'll be right with Kaul til the last 100. Its unlikely anyone will want to make the race that fast, and I'm guessing the race will be all in the last lap. I could see the last 400 being in the 56-58 range. A ton of talented guys will be battling it out for 3rd-8th, a few of them fresh (Harvey, Faller) but most of them not (Schneider, Christiansen, Chenoweth, Heymann etc), but I like Chenoweth as he was the 3rd best man at xc nationals, and Wartburg guys showed last year at this meet that they are solid picks to compete well. Faller's speed (3:50 1500) and freshness, along with a 4th place in the indoor 5k make him another attractive candidate for top 3

10000 - Kaul, Chenoweth, Schneider

Kaul's (largely) solo 29:38 shows that he'll probably blow this race away like he did in the 5k indoors. Behind him I like Chenoweth for the same reasons as in the 5k, and Schneider's 5k shows he is really fit. I don't think he quite has the speed for the 5, but he should do really well in the 10. Heymann, Flynn, Christiansen and Christian could do some damage as well, plus the Cortland guys, though I don't see any of them placing in the top 3 or 4.

3k Steeplechase - Kosgei, Zdroik, O'Brien

Easy win for Kosgei, then a battle for the next several spots. A lot of fairly fast new guys on the scene, but I'm putting Zdroik and O'Brien as 2-3 as they have the experience to do well at the big show.

leftminded wrote:

Anyone in their right mind knows that Ashley Schnell is going to put the Coe girls team in the top 20 with 2 AA placings again. This time its the 1500 and 5k. Count on it.

She has a very good shot at 2 AAs, but I really can't see her getting two 3rds like indoor. It's possible, but she's got a lot of good competition in both the 1500 and the 5k.