Can Jane Win Nationals wrote:
Jane has said that she doesn't try to blow people away or gap the field or anything like that. She said she has a specific pace in mind for each race and then she runs that exact pace regardless if anyone stays with her or not.
That's believable -- and a good strategy when you know those paces will result in finishing times well under 19 minutes which all her competitors so far can only imagine running.
So far.
If Jane/Diljeet continue this approach, it's reasonable to presume -- given decent weather and firm footing -- they will be targeting something around 18:30 at NCAAs, given Jane ran 18:42 at Pre-Nationals five weeks prior.
Difference from these two previous races: Jane will now be facing Lemngole/AL, Kosgei/NM & Cherotich/OR, runners she hasn't faced before who are the other co-favorites for the national title and may/likely have the fitness to stay with her.
So, a decision has to be made: (1) continue front running in hopes Jane's fitness is, indeed, a level above these three main competitors, or (2) call an audible, stay with the lead pack for a significant portion of the race (thru 3k, 4k, even 5k) to preserve energy, then put in a long surge to the line in hopes Jane has the best finish.
This will be the most fascinating sub-plot three weeks hence at Gans Creek