Can KT Tuohy frontrun her way to a 1500 Championship? And then Double back for a 5k Title?

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It will be very tough as I think she needs the 1500 to be fast, it will be warm (90F?) during 1500 and maybe cool down to 80F by 5000. On the plus side, she on paper would seem to be 15-20 s faster than the fastest of her competitors, and most of them will have run the 10000 Th or the 1500 final (in likelihood). Valby is the big exception, although there are a number of 15:30s runners who will be fresh as well. How much of the 15-20 s will be eaten up by the 1500 remains the question. I still think the odds of 2 wins is maybe 50% (I've gone down from original 60% due to quality of 1500 runners). As a few pointed out weeks ago things can go wrong in 1500s and there may not be time to recover from mishaps or boxes. Her tactics also need to be right on.

That first 1500m semi is the killer. And she probably can't hold back too much and still be confident to get top 5... its too loaded.

I agree, should be some great races to watch though!

All out in the 1500, we'll learn a lot in the semi, but she won't have much choice.

Best effort in 5k no scratch, 90 minutes is enough for an experienced doubler. (HS tripler quadrupler ). They will need team points. In old school style Chmiel would pace Tuohy and Tyynismaa thru 3k and Tyynismaa would take over thru 4k, then they would race the last k, hoping for 3 podium spots. This teamwork gives Touhy max help and still keeps Chmiel and Tyynismaa in the hunt.

Of course Valby, Venters & Kemboi will try to counter this by running away from fatigued KT at the front. Would Touhy be willing to let a small gap build (again), as she conserves energy?

The alternative, if Tuohy unshockingly is impatient, is Tuohy simply tucks in behind VVK group, covers moves, and kicks for the win(?). Tyynismaa and Chmiel can work together back in the pack, as they are both very comfortable running off the pace.

Heat and humidity a factor - hurts Kemboi & Venters, helps Valby, Tyynismaa & Touhy (makes no real sense but she's always ran well in heat). Just can't see this quicker than 15:30 though.

I agree with this assessment. I remember the press conference before the XC national championships last fall. Tuohy said that race was going to be a dogfight. It was. These races will be even more so. She knows the stakes and the challenge ahead of her. So much respect for her taking this on and as I’ve said before, putting it all on the line. Risking failure.

Now I realize there are several other athletes attempting this double and I commend them as well. Very talented group of athletes in both the 1500 and the 5k events. The difference between Tuohy and the others is Tuohy is the one winning national championships and setting collegiate records. She has a bullseye the size of Texas on her, and all the pressure that goes with it. Everyone wants to take her down.

Still, having seen historically how conservative of a coach Henes is in assessing her athletes’ ability to take on difficult challenges - remember she vetoed the potential Tuohy triple during indoor- I have to believe she has seen something in workouts that makes her think it’s at least possible and worth trying. Something we haven’t seen yet in her outdoor competitions like Wake Forest.

Actually I think heat helps Kemboi and Venters (or atleast does not hurt their chances). They live at altitude (which will help them at sea level) and Utah gets surprisingly hot in the summer.

Well said!

Yeah I feel like we still don't know exactly where she is at with the 1500m this season. Her only races were wake forest and these two prelims. And in 5k sound running she was not super happy (despite running 15:03). The other races were just workouts

The 4:14 quarterfinal race was a little close for comfort, but she also seemed very in control in both regional heats.

Those 1500s were barely a 1000 at her 5000 pace and then a kick!

In the 4:14 she dropped it from a 5k pace to 66s give or take at around 600m. But, she slowed a bit and the field kind of caught up and closed the gap by the bell. I couldn't really tell if she was just letting them and just trusting her final kick or what.

Maatoug is a gamer but she's best indoors, second cross country, and weakest outdoors. A large part of that is tactics. During the first 3.5 laps she is always forced to make one micro decision and adjustment after another. Zips and loops. She'd like to be forward placed near the rail but almost never manages that spot.

Then it totally changes on the backstretch of the final lap. Maatoug finally gets to the rail as the pace begins to quicken. She's happy and remains there. But she doesn't sense that she's acquired that spot because now nobody else wants it. She's sitting 3rd and 4th with traffic also outside her and behind her. Some of those runners begin to move as Maatoug is stuck. She has to wait around the bend and sometimes into the straightaway before there's clearance outside. And by that point it's too late for some. But too late for how many? That's the issue she faces when it's top 5 or nothing.

I saw that scenario in many of her Netherlands races so the carryover to NCAAs is not surprising. She's new to 1500 but the same applied to many of her outdoor 800 races. Once she goes back to Europe this summer against weaker fields I think her tactics will steadily improve. She won't be content to sit back and wander around.

Amazing all of this hype about a runner who is significantly slower than a younger American. The silly claim has always been that Tuohy is only slower than runners who are older than her. Hilarious. Now we know that she isn't even faster than younger runners.

Wiley is 19 and she would smoke Tuohy. The D1 win now will be the JV win, sort of what the naysayers were saying about NAIA two weeks ago. Wiley is poised to make a world team while Tuohy will finish 3rd in the NCAA final in 4:07. What a joke.

Maatoug did try to take the lead in the mile final in NCAA indoors and push the pace. I think she may have gone out too hot and had issues with the altitude. And then she was very off in the 3k.

Maybe she needs to continue to build her endurance so she has to confidence to run towards the front and hold it instead of working her way up every time.

Tuohy does not run for coaches that dope their athletes or for a coach that doped her way to a world team. Yes, you can run fast with epo and steroids, which is what Wiley's coaches gave their athletes. Amazing that you think that is something to celebrate. It is an embarrassment to the sport.

Didn't she lose to Pourde at Drake a few weeks back? But more than enough time to get "help" in the interim. As I predicted Wiley is going to try to dope her way onto a world team. That was always in the cards, but you just hope they do not make a mockery of college running in the meantime. By all means take that sad circus off the the pros so it no longer infects college running. There she is free to disgrace herself all she cares to.

Sir, this is an Arby’s.