Parker Valby is going to smoke Katelyn Tuohy in the NCAA 5000

Oh exactly. I’m personally not concerned at all.

I imagine they’ll have Tuohy do a slight taper for NCAAs (putting her in a competitive ability for a 4:04-4:06 range for 1500 and 15:05 to 15:15 range for 5000 (In the meantime, I imagine they’re specifically doing workouts catered towards the super fast 1500 and then 1 hour 40 minute break and then hammer out a solid 5000, role-playing scenarios essentially what she’ll be up against at NCAAs).

a little off topic but did anyone notice that both Warner-Judd and Kurgat ran either side of 31:10 in the recent 10K. Tuohy beat both of them in the CA 5K. I don't know if they went out too hard and faded.

Wake Forest …

A collegiate athlete must have participated in an event with other collegiate athletes… and run a qualifying time… for the championship prelims…

Wake Forest Invitational was such a collegiate event… in both the 1500m and the 5000m… even though pro athletes were in the fields…

On Track Fest… would not produce a qualifying time for the NCAA Championships, as not enough collegiate athletes and teams represented… But, it did produce a NCAA Record in the 5000m…

Different qualifications for participation in Championships… than in setting new individual collegiate records…

Also conference has 0 effect on nats, it's just a separate event. For historical reasons and coaches bonuses, conference meets are still important to teams and athletes. Also more kids can 'score at conference' than at nats, so more team fun.

KT, was not running her debut 10000 to break records or qualify… She was out to have a good time and probably under 33:00:00 was the plan.. Part of her 5000m training no doubt…

So, KT’s 10000m, is not a true measure of KT or anyone running with KT, whenever…

Warner-Judd and Kurgat are pros, who ran 10k in London yesterday in 31:10. Since Touhy beat both at track fest 5k, FT is loosely implying that KT could also have run 31:10 - just for perspective.

Tuohy has only managed to run a 15:50 5K twice after doubling off the 1500...

She might try to take the lead in the 1500 and slow it down and then win it with the last lap sprint...

And then try to draft the entire way in the 5K and then do the same thing...

I think she’d be putting herself in a tough spot if she leaves it for a final 400m sprint. I believe she’ll take it from FAR out (like 800-1200). In both races.

Warner-Judd and Kurgat are best at 10k, Tuohy is (as of now) not a 10k runner but best at 1500/3k. With <4:08 and low 31 she should have run at least 10 sec. faster in the 5k. She will eventually run 31 or faster but her best 10k right now would probably be around 31:45

Do you think she is best at 1500/3k (as opposed to 3k/5k for example) because she did not run better (1450's ) at Track fest?

Conserve.... tactical... Needs to be fastest 100m closer in 5k and fastest 400m in 1500... And if she cant do that against this competition then she has no business running world championships or thinking about going pro

I am not trying anything deep; I don't claim to know what might eventually be the best distance. But from the most recent results, incl. indoors and the track fest 5000m I'd say what I wrote. Especially because of the shoes and organized paced+wavelights races many people are relatively better in the 5000 than 1500. The 10k was obviously not all out and my guess above is just eyeballing from the other PBs.

The odd thing is that for a "miler" she never runs 800m (no PB listed at WA)

Sounds like you've gone over to the dark side. She's for sure the fastest 400m and probably 100m closer in '23 NCAA 5000 field. At 1500 she is an average closer at 400m and poor from 100m. That's why she has to run a hard 1500 and has luxury of a sit and kick 5000.

It looks like Tuohy drew lane 1 in her 1500 heat.

Then she can run like Centro, never off the rail.

She’s going to have to really push that first 100m hard then.