Confirmed: Joshua Cheptegei WILL go for Komen's legendary 7:20.67 on Wednesday!!

I think one problem of many commentators and also many conversion tables etc. is that the last years seem to have shown that strength based runners can be considerably better at the long track distances (and of course on the road but there it gets even more complex with the shoes, pacing etc.) than we thought in the 80s or 90s. In the case of Cheptegei the pacing lights were an additional factor last year (I would never have believed him to have a chance at sub 12:40 with his previous marks).

The early pace in Ostrava certainly was to fast for Cheptegei, with even pacing or slightly negative split he would probably have run 7:27-28 (say 5:00 + 2:27). Sure, this would still be incredibly close to his 5k WR pace (only 2 secs faster pace) but he is a 10k runner not a 1500-5000m type like Komen, El Gerrouj etc. were.

SDSU Aztec wrote:

Starno wrote:

Actually 7.33 is bad for Cheptegei since it's his 5k WR pace. Back in August he could go 2 more k at this pace.

Yeah, if he was in 12:35 shape he could have run 7:25 or maybe a little faster. That he tops out at 3:37 is nonsense.

Yes

When he could last 12.5 laps at 7:33 pace, it's not unthinkable that he could have gone 8-9 seconds faster on 5 laps less. Otherwise the guy is really some kind of slow twitch man xD

Armstronglivs wrote:

You stupid piece of cr*p

When you are being owned day in day out, only insults can make you feel better.

I am enjoying your loss.

5679 wrote:

Armstronglivs wrote:

You stupid piece of cr*p

When you are being owned day in day out, only insults can make you feel better.

I am enjoying your loss.

My loss? I said Cheptegei wouldn't break Komen's record. I was proved to be right. I guess that's what you're enjoying - because it can't be anything else. If that's "ownership", I'll take it.

Cue rekrunner.

There are commenters here who simply do not grasp what a freakish record 7.20 is.

You point that Cheptegei has no chance of taking the record unless he is a 3.47 or thereabouts miler is key to the argument. I previously said he has no chance of the 3k record unless he is able to run sub-3.30 for the 1500, as Komen could. As you say, the miler's qualities relate more closely to the 3k than those of a 5k-10k runner.

Starno wrote:

SDSU Aztec wrote:

Yeah, if he was in 12:35 shape he could have run 7:25 or maybe a little faster. That he tops out at 3:37 is nonsense.

Yes

When he could last 12.5 laps at 7:33 pace, it's not unthinkable that he could have gone 8-9 seconds faster on 5 laps less. Otherwise the guy is really some kind of slow twitch man xD

He is. He has not shown speed over shorter distances.

All obvious. All true. But hard for some to grasp.

rekrunner wrote:

If you don't care about Hungarian tables, favoring your own method, that certainly drives your thinking. Similarly 7:11 and 7:14 come from tables, so it is consistent that you would reject them too. These are theoretical values from a model, so any conclusions must keep that in mind. No one said or insinuated it was plausible (besides Armstronglivs when building a strawman). I said that I wouldn't rule out a world record (sub-7:20.67).

Using your approach of comparing to other fastest performances, it makes sense to dig a little deeper to see what shape the athletes were in when achieving their 3000m times, and other factors, like incentives, pacing, weather, number of opportunities, etc. and compare these results to the conditions of 5000m and 10000m.

I think that a couple of things have happened recently which have really impacted the effectiveness of these tables - especially in distance running, and we all know what they are - pacing lights and shoes. We also know that the impact of both of these innovations ramps up dramatically the longer distance you run and this makes sense right?

The benefit of even pacing is astronomical to running efficiency - and we saw this perfectly demonstrated by Cheptegei in both his WR's as he barely fluctuated in pace throughout almost all of his 37.5 laps. The benefit of spike innovation with respect to muscular fatigue reduction by way of impact cushioning not at the expense of weight and force efficiency is also clearly more pronounced the longer a track event is.

It's fair to draw the conclusion that the length of event matters right? The 800m has been barely effected - wavelight kind of irrelevant when you are basically running at 93% of your max for 400m and then trying to simply hold on for another 400m and the real benefit for 800m runners in the new tech spikes is more likely seen with training and the ability to train faster and recover better than it is actually during a race. The 1500m a little more impact than the 8 but nowhere near as much as the 5000m so the question then becomes at what distance do we really start to see the impact of wavelight and spikes in terms of in race effects.

Maybe the 3000m isn't at that threshold. I mean it is quantifiably closer to the mile than it is to the 5000m. Maybe pacing lights and spikes just aren't going to generate the same jump in performance we have seen obviously in the 5 and 10'000m events - I don't know? Again, I don't think JC was at his best the other night but I have to admit seeing him try the tempo and then get absolutely destroyed by the shadow of Komen didn't give me much confidence he can do this. I think for me it just reinforced the quality and insanity of Komens time because I just don't think even pacing and slightly less fatigue in training or in race thanks to footwear is going to cut it.

Hey either way I'm confused by some of the numbers. Even a 7.15 3000m is "equivalent" to 12.26 and 25.52 - so I don't know how anyone arrived at such numbers. I understand someone probably used a Purdy/Cameron/Riegel/V02max predictor but they are simply mathematical models devoid of any ability to calculate the nuances and plethora of variables involved in actual running so I would never take them seriously. Ever.

As for the history of this event and shape/incentive of athletes going after the WR, when you are talking about guys like El G, Morceli, Geb, Bekele all in their primes who clearly committed to running fast (because when you start running sub 7.27 you aren't simply sitting and kicking for a golden four/league win) - I very much doubt they didn't have serious aspirations with breaking this record. El Guerrojou for sure wanted it. If you have ever seen that race with him running 7.23, it's the first time I ever saw him truly suffer out there in the final 300m and probably the only race I ever saw him absolutely exhausted at the finish. He wanted it. Morceli was of course the previous record holder and was done by the time Komen ramped things up - the point being I doubt Morceli didn't try and run his maximum considering he was setting the WR at the time. Maybe chasing 7.20 he could have run 7.23 high/7.24 low - he wasn't good enough over 5000m to be better than that. Geb - not fast enough over the mile, pure and simple as he was a 3.50 miler at best and the same with Bekele. I think anyone in that 7.25 club got there being in shape and going for it - they just couldn't get close.

Lengthy post, but all fair points.

It seems reasonable to suggest the new lights and shoes "break" the oxygen for pace model used in VDOT, and the WR speed model used in Purdy.

But regardless of model, individual tailoring is always necessary, when making interpretations about the real world.

I looked at all-time performances, to see which months were more likely to produce fast times, and how fast April and May times are for 1500m and 3000m. July, August and September are the best months at producing fast times. It would be unprecedented to produce such fast times in the first track races of the season in April and May. Another attempt when he is in Olympic shape would be more interesting.

Seems reasonable to me that 1500m/5000m type, like El G, had he attempted it more, would have a better chance than 5000m/10000m types like Geb and Bekele and Cheptegei.

But I still don't rule out Cheptegei's potential to produce much faster 1500m/3000m than he has. I used another model, which factors in both speed and endurance of the 5000m and 10000m world records, to predict potentials of 3:31 for 1500m and 7:20 for 3000m. Increasing efficiency for longer distances might also impact this model, but correcting assuming less efficiency only speeds up these 1500m and 3000m times.

Again a disclaimer: it's just an ideal model, not the real world, that assumes these 5000m and 10000m WRs are "equivalent" to each other, with respect to speed and endurance, and assumes a constant rate of slowdown for each doubling of distance.

What is hard for you to grasp is that running over/under distance is normal and recommended for athletes from 800m-10k.

It is completely normal for a 5000m-10000m athetes to race a 3000m, even a 1500m race in preparation for their goal events.

Joshua stated before the race that he thought he couldn't run under 7:20.67 but he gave it a go. Maybe he had financial incentives to try it, maybe he just wanted to see how it went.

What is also obvious and true is that you are a very rude person and not very knowledgeable when it comes to elite running.

Nadya wrote:

Armstronglivs wrote:

All obvious. All true. But hard for some to grasp.

What is hard for you to grasp is that running over/under distance is normal and recommended for athletes from 800m-10k.

It is completely normal for a 5000m-10000m athetes to race a 3000m, even a 1500m race in preparation for their goal events.

Joshua stated before the race that he thought he couldn't run under 7:20.67 but he gave it a go. Maybe he had financial incentives to try it, maybe he just wanted to see how it went.

What is also obvious and true is that you are a very rude person and not very knowledgeable when it comes to elite running.

Sorry to be rude about it but you haven't grasped that the issue here on this thread is not whether a runner should run shorter or longer events but whether they - in this case, Cheptegei - have the capacity to set a world record in an event that may not be their specialty. In the 3k it appears Cheptegei doesn't - even though he stated it was his intention to try for the record. But no one is arguing he shouldn't run it.

The nub of it. Without a given level of speed the record is unreachable. It does without saying that it also requires phenomenal endurance. Cheptegei has the latter but has not shown the former. The record will only likely be taken by the modern-day equivalent of El G, a 1500/5k exponent. And of course doped to the max.

Armstronglivs wrote:

Starno wrote:

Yes

When he could last 12.5 laps at 7:33 pace, it's not unthinkable that he could have gone 8-9 seconds faster on 5 laps less. Otherwise the guy is really some kind of slow twitch man xD

He is. He has not shown speed over shorter distances.

No, being a fellow human being prevents him from him being able to run 12:35 without having sub-3:50 mile speed.

Lengthy but isn't this the point of intelligent debate - making a point and backing it up with either facts or solid justification/reasoning? It's not a game of who shouts loudest right?

Again I'm in agreement with you on the fact that he didn't look at his best last week and historically he is way better off trying to get this record in August/September because every single one of the top 10 times ever was run in those months.

But time of year doesn't simply overcome a key physical attribute/component we know he simply needs to be even under 7.24 which is excellence at the mile distance. We haven't even mentioned the #3 all-time performer (probably with good reason) Saidi-Sief who was a 3.48 low miler and also ran 12.50.

Probably like you, I've seen a lot of great runners - I've ever run against some. Cheptegei to my eye just doesn't have this type of leg speed. It's why I believe a technology like wavelight is so beneficial to him and why he hasn't run any great races without it. I still don't believe he is a superior athlete to Bekele because of it - when you really analyze the records of both you quantifiably see the difference in pacing that makes such a large difference efficiency wise and of course efficiency is key in distance running.

Cheptegei in top shape, August, going for it with new spike tech and wavelight NOT set up to go after 7.20 (but more like 7.25) will run somewhere between 7.25.0 and 7.26.5. That is his limit.

SDSU Aztec wrote:

Armstronglivs wrote:

He is. He has not shown speed over shorter distances.

No, being a fellow human being prevents him from him being able to run 12:35 without having sub-3:50 mile speed.

You haven't included possible doping in your calculations, which means he isn't constrained by the same factors that affect the rest of us mere mortals. I will await to see whether he can beat 3.32 for the 1500. Either way, he is slower than Komen at 3.29 and El G at 3.26, which makes him "slow twitch" over the 3k. His 7.33 currently suggests that as well. Without sub 3.30 speed he doesn't stand a chance of beating 7.20.

But "modern training" says the sky is the limit. Or at least 7.20.

By all means -- I wasn't complaining about the length, and I'm all in favor of making a point and backing it up with either facts or solid justification/reasoning.

I agree with pretty much everything you said, given your rationale. I'm not married to the tables, and said earlier that 7:23-7:25 was reasonable. 7:25-7:28 is also just as reasonable. We don't really know his "true" capability over 1500m (or the mile), so I think there is too much uncertainty to attempt to argue about the few seconds difference.

Not sure I would say Cheptegei hasn't run great races without the lights -- besides the track records, he's racked up a few road records, without the lights.

Regarding Bekele, Canova has said a few times, he wasn't in his best 10K shape when he got the record.

Armstronglivs wrote:

But "modern training" says the sky is the limit. Or at least 7.20.

Can you expand on this and give us all a demonstration of your understanding?