TUOHY ANY COMPETITION THIS XC SEASON

I'm pretty sure Tuohy hasn't PRd this year. Has anyone checked in with Rojo to see how worried he is?

Marlee Starliper 161 SR today at PA state meet. Tough to compare to last year as time was 42 s faster, but last year weather was real bad. But 161 for her is certainly believable.

Zofia Dudek beat everyone in MI by almost a minute or more including a couple of FLN top tens who were in different divisions. Her race hasn't been rated yet but it might also be in the 160s.

Pre-race:

https://www.freep.com/story/sports/high-school/2019/11/01/michigan-girls-cross-country-zofia-dudek-poland/4097605002/

Post-race:

https://www.freep.com/story/sports/high-school/2019/11/02/high-school-girls-cross-country-state-championships-michigan/4143167002/

michigan wrote:

Zofia Dudek beat everyone in MI by almost a minute or more including a couple of FLN top tens who were in different divisions. Her race hasn't been rated yet but it might also be in the 160s.

155 officially, although as noted she won by a lot.

fastTuohy wrote:

155 officially, although as noted she won by a lot.

That's surprising. Out of the next 10 who are on the list of top speed ratings all 10 were under their top rating with the average being 11 points under. I figured most of them would be close to their best.

Vanderkooi "only" ran 18:11 to win her division race by over 70 seconds. On the same course and on the same day Dudek ran 17:00... those course conditions were brutal with the wind and mud and she almost ran a course record.

Vanderkooi ran 17:02 at portage earlier this season and last year finished 3rd at Footlocker, ran sub 17 three times and threw down a 10:04 for 3200m indoors (Dudek was also in the race and ran 10:07). Dudek has obviously improved massively since.... something seems off about that speed rating.

ObservingObserver wrote:

Vanderkooi "only" ran 18:11 to win her division race by over 70 seconds. On the same course and on the same day Dudek ran 17:00... those course conditions were brutal with the wind and mud and she almost ran a course record.

Vanderkooi ran 17:02 at portage earlier this season and last year finished 3rd at Footlocker, ran sub 17 three times and threw down a 10:04 for 3200m indoors (Dudek was also in the race and ran 10:07). Dudek has obviously improved massively since.... something seems off about that speed rating.

Well, I remain convinced that in any single race there is a little uncertainty in these things. By the numbers, the course ran a touch faster than last year (15:13 last year was 193, while this year 15:01 was 194). To me, these are one and the same speed. Whether this agrees with the course conditions, I have no idea. Another point of reference, last year Vanderlende ran 17:08 for a 155 winning by 50 seconds, and ended up with 151/149 at the two National meets.

If you were to increase the girls ratings by 5 (Dudek to 160), in all likelihood you would have to increase the boys winner (and all boys by 5) to 199ish which would put Carter Solomon basically right there with Sprout/Young/ Daschback type speeds.

Recall also the ratings are basically set by how the bulk of the middle of the pack does, not the top 10 or bottom 10 for that matter.

Maybe Carter Solomon will end up right there with the fastest when all is said and done and we can look back at this. 155 for Dudek, very close to her highest while winning by 1 minute is pretty good in any case. She is clearly among the very fastest this year.

But I too, am just an observer.

The Dirty Duck wrote:

I'm pretty sure Tuohy hasn't PRd this year. Has anyone checked in with Rojo to see how worried he is?

Who is RoJo... no no PRS for Tuohy. It's still some nice progress in terms of within the year. I think she's being smart with not overdoing it. And hopefully can Peak once the postseason comes.

Anyway she still looks like she's a good bit ahead of any other competitor. I mean 7 speed rating points are the 21 second Gap so that's pretty big. And she's the only one who's consistently running in the 160s and getting faster. If she gets into the 170s again it's doubtful anyone is going to be close. Why what do you think? Seems like some of the girls can be close on the track for 2 miles but in cross-country she still seems like there's no one really that close.??

You make a valid point. There's also the possibility that Vanderkooi was not giving a legit effort or just didn't have a strong race, so the comparison I made wasn't that great. (Another thing how some runners seem to perform better/worse under certain conditions but not necessarily making them a "better" or "worse" runner as a whole; e.g. California runners struggling with NXN mud while Midwest/Northeast runners excelling).

The concept of speed ratings are fascinating to me and I fully support them as well, it's just that it can be hard to view them objectively when you can't always assume that the performances themselves by runners are all out or just tempo efforts/workout. I know a lot of people were debating about that when Katelyn Tuohy would run a 170 something speed rating and then afterwards say she wasn't racing that hard and just doing a workout, giving the implication that she could have run much faster.

Dudek’s team seems pretty good. Are they NXN material?

Yes, the weakness is that something that makes a course hard or easy for one runner such as heat, hills, or mud does not necessarily impact other runners the same. Also, if conditions are very muddy, they are probably the worst for those stuck in the middle of a pack with no options where they run, and less bad for the leaders who have more room. But, just my opinion, not really based on any data.

Gagahha wrote:

Dudek’s team seems pretty good. Are they NXN material?

A good team, but most likely behind Beavercreek and North Naperville in the MW, might be right with Yorkville. Probably right in the mix for a wild card invite if they get beaten by the other 2 in the MW. But there also solid teams in the NW, SW and maybe CA as well in that mix. Might be better than any of the teams in the northeast or south though, which get automatic invites. Tough competition in some regions. Going to be some tough decisions by the committee.

The Dirty Duck wrote:

I'm pretty sure Tuohy hasn't PRd this year. Has anyone checked in with Rojo to see how worried he is?

For sure he's very worried!

Tuohy is like Ditka. Only Tuohy can beat Tuohy at NXN or FLN. She would have to go out like a maniac to die hard enough for 2nd place to catch her.

The 158 for Masciarelli was in September at their season opener Canterbury Invite. Nothing close since. Wonder how that bodes for Championship season or is it peaking too early.

smugmug123 wrote:

The 158 for Masciarelli was in September at their season opener Canterbury Invite. Nothing close since. Wonder how that bodes for Championship season or is it peaking too early.

You think she peaked for their season opener? Lol... yeah I'm sure her coach was like "hey, let's taper for september and forget about the post season completely"

I am sure Brynn Brown's coach didn't plan on her getting a stress fracture either after her amazing season opener. Maybe the more important question is who is getting faster as the season progresses toward championships, or who hasn't demonstrated that. duhhhh.

With her limited prep school meet schedule, there are not many data points to measure Syd's progression. Her coach seems pretty clever, as they have certainly been able to peak at the right time over the last year, as she ran great at the 2 Foot Locker XC meets, and then showed up again in the spring to win everything at NB Nationals track. I have faith she will show up ready to race at Foot Locker again.

I don't know how clever or not her coach is, but I would not make any judgements based on the one race in October.

michigan wrote:

Zofia Dudek beat everyone in MI by almost a minute or more including a couple of FLN top tens who were in different divisions. Her race hasn't been rated yet but it might also be in the 160s.

Pre-race:

https://www.freep.com/story/sports/high-school/2019/11/01/michigan-girls-cross-country-zofia-dudek-poland/4097605002/

Post-race:

https://www.freep.com/story/sports/high-school/2019/11/02/high-school-girls-cross-country-state-championships-michigan/4143167002/

Zofia won a loaded Brooks PR mile last spring in 4:41, then went on to win the U-20 Eurochamps 3000:

Speaks English with a mostly American accent:

She could be trouble for Tuohy if nearby in the last 800m.