Hocker COOKED in the 1500/mile?

The probability of 2025 winter shape Jakob finishing better than 5th is 100%, and that’s the point. All this talk about how difficult making the team is or how many 3:31 guys were in this field vs Euros/Worlds or whatever is irrelevant unless you’re arguing that Jakob would have performed as poorly as Hocker did.

And I’m sorry, but if Jakob winning a race where his main competitors are Nathan Green, Luke Houser, and Vince Ciattei isn’t all but guaranteed, I don’t know what is. No disrespect intended to any of those guys, but they aren’t in the same stratosphere as Jakob, or Hocker for that matter. He should have had no trouble putting them away even with that 3k in his legs, and he basically said as much after the race.

Reading your post is like being in the archery range. Bullseye after bullseye and the loser walks away full of arrows.

Nader at the time had no international hardware/signature wins and his overall PB was 3:30.84. He’d run 3:32 losing to Habz in a time trial. I’d certainly not take him over Nuguse. But his breakthrough occurred months later, not when Luke Houser was beating him.

Mills over Nuguse and Young is just incorrect. Mills struggles to finish, which is why he’s never won a big race, and scuffles at global championships.

Jakob would finish higher I agree. He IS better at doubling. You are missing the point that if Jakob runs the race hos he typically would he goes 12th from 1st with 800m to go. This is harder with more fit guys and a larger field. Then he has Yared Nuguse tracking him and not 2025 indoors Habz/Gourley. I’d take Yared over them. Also this Jakob strategy indoors has led to 3:36-7 races which doesn’t guarantee he runs out every finisher like Green/Houser.

Thoughtsleader is right, every one else arguing here need to reassess their knowledge of the sport and stop commenting for a while

Jakob beat Houser in a 3:38 race last year dude. Why are you grasping at straws trying to come up with ways for him to a lose a race we all know he’d win? Have we seriously reached the point where it’s controversial to expect Jakob to defeat America’s B tier 1500m squad?

You must look like a porcupine then, with the dozens of arrows stuck on you day after day.

Sorry - you are all lousy shots. You especially.

That's called confirmation bias. Yours.

I am not advocating for this. I think this discussion has been interesting. Indoors is such a unique season with how serious athletes take it, how stacked fields are, and even field sizes completely variable meet to meet.

EDIT: There’s a different world where USATF opts for rounds, and Hocker races 1500 only, wins, and renders this whole thread meaningless despite being in the exact same fitness.

I promise that I’m trying to be helpful.

You stated that Hocker is a 3:45 mile guy and his field was filled with 3:50/51 mile guys. You specifically mentioned that Teare and Nuguse being in the field proves that the USATF 1500m field is stronger - but you conveniently leave out that they also doubled with Hocker. This neutralizes them as threats, not strengthens them. A true 3:45 guy should have no trouble putting away a field of 3:50ish journeymen. He also had a staggered start and had the opportunity to lead the entire race, except he muddled it up in the last 600m and got himself boxed in again. Hocker is incapable of getting in his own way. 5th place at a national meet in your main event is abysmal, not worthy of being in discussion as the best distance runner in the world. Do you think in their national qualifying meets that Habz is placing 5th? Nader? Kerr? P Koech? Laros?

Jakob was also a 3:45 guy, doubled the 1500m against a fully fresh field of 3:50/51 journeymen. Led from start to finish and beat everyone handily.

It doesn’t matter if there are 8, 11, or a 100 other competitors in the field if they are all legitimately 3-5 seconds slower than you in the mile. The talent gap from 3:45-3:50 is light years different, technically it’s generationally different.

With the exception of Hocker/Nuguse - not a single guy in Sunday’s race will ever run sub 3:31 outdoors or sub 3:49 indoors in their lives. Not a single one of them will have a breakout season before they retire. Save this post for later and come back to it when I’m right.

Cole is definitely in proper fitness to win the 1500, and very well could. I think that, because of the tactical errors we have seen from him since Paris, we have to quit assuming he's just gonna win though. He has a horrible habit of losing focus with 500-200 to go, sticking to the rail while people go around and box him in, and thinking his kick will get him out of whatever mess he made for himself.

After the race Nathan Green said he knew when Houser made his move with 400 to go, that he HAD to go with the move because Houser had the goods to take it all the way home. Meanwhile Cole was unbothered by it and just let people go by.

Exactly. Hoey, Koech, Strand were all faster than Hocker last year and they were missing. Kessler’s recent 2000m AR also shows him in 3:30-mid 1500m short track shape, and 3:26-high outdoor shape

Hocker finished 5th against a b squad from the US only. Not a global championship.

Nuguse at the time had zero championship wins the year before (5th at USA’s).

Ciattei ran 3:52, 7 seconds behind Hocker, but beat him convincingly at USA’s so PB cant really tell you about championships. I think Nader was more sharp than the guys at USA’s in Apeldoorn, Habz too.

Mills finished strongly in Apeldoorn. I think it’s hard to tell who is better.

I think he accepts he was genuinely surprised that Hocker came 5th at nationals.

Are you doing yoga?

BECAUSE THAT'S A STRETCH.

Short-track to long-track is not a 4-second difference lol.

I like to stretch on the World Athletics scoring table - really lets me reach, ya know?

4:48.79 short track is a score of 1293, the equivalent performances are easily findable from there.

Not uncommon to see 3-4 seconds difference in the men’s 1500m short track and outdoor times. El G was 5 seconds, Jakob is 3 seconds, Kerr is 5 seconds, Hocker is 3 seconds, Lagat was 7 seconds. Pretty consistent theme, which is probably World Athletics scores these standards accordingly

Hocker 100% sjould make both teams but winning both will be VERY tough

Put June / July / August Hocjer, Kerr and Jakob on the BU track and they are sub 3:29 at the very worst