Would Hocker have beaten peak Jakob today in 5k?

Great that Hocker won. But it may be a bit overlooked that Jakob ran 13:02 in the final desire his massive inconsistent and lost training due to his injuries. I think that Hocker is credited with a 52.xx last lap. The question is (in my mind) if this had been a 12:50 or a 12:45 race (likely I think if Jakob had been in the final ), what kind of kick would Hocker have been left with. I doubt that it would have been 52. For different reasons, great performances by both of them.

Blah blah blah blah blah.

Here is the answer: Hocker can only win races coming from behind in 5th or 6th place at the bell, running a very fast final 400m. Hocker is always going to have that final kick no matter how fast or slow the race is, he has that ability to call upon his anaerobic system at will. But he can go missing in a race. In football terms, he is what you call a "goal sneak". This works given the right race. Mercurial, but flakey. See 1500m semi-final and the last 12 months.

However, in a 5000m race with peak Jakob, Jakob already has the jump on him at the bell, because likely he would be pushing the pace from further out AND has a very decent kick. So whether Hocker can run a 52 final lap, and Jakob a 53/54 is irrelevant, because Jakob already has a buffer for the win.

I believe it depends on the pace, anything slower than 13:10 goes to Hocker, anything faster than 13:00 goes to Ingebrigtsen and anything in between is a toss up.

This time around a healthy Jingy would have won by upping the pace with roughly 1200 to go rather than let it sit until the last 400. That most likely would have done the job and the winning time would be low 12:50s.

It just be said however that even if he does do the ramp up, if the beginning pace is slow enough (so that the finishing time is 13:10), I’m picking Hocker. His 52 mid last 400 equates to a 51 mid if you take into account that it was run in lane 2. Though yes this was a tactical error on his part, if Jakob were to ramp up the pace, he wouldn’t have to worry about making up as much ground as more people will have been dropped.

Hocker was in 12th at the bell. In a race beetween 12:50 and 13:00, the way Hocker ran he would have beaten Jakob anyway. Faster than 12:50 is probably another story, certainly if under 12:40 it’s Jakob.

The Jakob from Eugene and Budapest isn’t losing to anyone in history. So yes, he would have beaten Hocker and likely by some margin. Not a knock on hocker, he is great but Jakobs level of strength is just different. But that’s just like, my opinion man.

I actually think even if it comes down to 400 like Tokyo did, Jakob would still win. Cole was 1.2 seconds back of Mehary at the bell. I don’t think Paris Jakob is closing slower than 53.8 in this race. Honestly I think he’d be pretty close to 52.6 as well, just with the caveat of not having to run wide like Hocker did

However, I think if Jakob were healthy, Cole would’ve been more conscious of his positioning. But I also think that if Jakob were healthy it doesn’t come down to a 400m kick, and the scenario that everyone is discussing of the long drawn out kick would be more likely

and you base this on, what 😂

You’ve based this on what you’ve observed… i.e., their actual PBs.

I would have a high degree of confidence that Jakob’s top-end is what his PB is (because he time trials so much).

I would not have a high degree of confidence that Hocker’s PB is representative of his top-end. He doesn’t do a lot of time trialing, and he builds his fitness toward a peak at championship time. He ran a 7:23 indoors in February (admittedly in a time trial type situation with Fisher to chase). But then prioritised building fitness from February till August/September - likely at the expense of optimal performance in between.

So no, I would not be so sure the ‘fitness gap’ is really 5 seconds.

Hocker was simply the next man up, with his diminutive shoulder width and wide hips.

Jakob doesn't time trial the 5000, all the analysis given in this thread is based on races where Jakob wins the 5000 while looking like he's jogging.

Even though we've all been going back and forth for this many pages it's pretty silly to make predictions if Jakob who runs at 100% can beat someone like Hocker when he's never lost a 5000 race when fit while running at 90% effort, because the answer is obviously yes.

Impossible to know. Also impossible to know if he could have achieved the double. Jakob ran very well for a guy that looked horrible in the 1500m. It was very obvious that he was far from his top shape. Likely like 80%.

Eugene and Budapest? Those races where Jakob's winning time and his kick were both slower than Hocker's in Tokyo? Sure. Makes sense.

I get this argument but Jakob at his best probably makes his move from 600-1000 out and thins the field. Hocker would theoretically have fewer bodies to navigate IF he can stand the pace. He was far back in this one because the pack was huge and he saved up for a kick. In Paris for the 1500, he didn’t allow a gap even though he easily could have based on his entire prior history. So its about whether he is there or not to me. I think posters here are right to doubt he could hang.

You are absolutely incorrect!

Remember the question: "Would Hocker have beaten peak Jakob today in 5k?" The question is not who is the better athlete and/or who would win under every circumstance?

With a lap to go in Eugene Jacob was in front at 12:15 and in Budapest, he was also in front with a lap to go in 12:18. In Tokyo with a lap to go Hocker is at 12:04 and is about 5m off the leaders. Hocker would be with the leaders in every global championship race and his 12x last 100m would run away from Jacob and possibly anyone else in history in 'that particular type race'. There is almost no way Hocker would have been beaten by Jacob based on how he ran all of his previous global championship races. With all of that said, in a DL rabbited 12:4x race things might be different.

Exactly. It’s amazing how many jealous fu*k-tar*s there are who are seething with jealousy that Cole won, with a blistering last lap to boot. They were horrifed when Hocker won in Paris, and the win in Tokyo has put them over the edge. They’ve been reduced to things like making fun of his physique while being complete athletic failures themselves.

Depending on where you measure from, Jakob’s kick was faster in Budapest - his last 600 was 1:19.9 (Hocker 1:23.1) and last 400 was 52.45 (Hocker 52.62)

But Hocker didn’t get any consistent pressure. The first 3k was even 7:52 pace. That isn’t tiring any of the top guys at full fitness. Then, the next 1600 slowed down and it turned into a final 400m kick. While Jakob’s first 3k was slower, he was able to handle consistent pressure which turned into a 7:35 final 3k, 4:55 final 2k, 2:21 final K, and a 52.6 last lap. That’s more impressive.

What kind of fitness gap are you talking about though? Jakob leading and Cole pacing off of him? Or Jakob and Cole getting equal amount of pacing?

Both ran their respective 3000m times in ideally paced conditions. I'm just saying that Jakob is a serial time trialer and I have greater confidence that the 7:17 was an optimised performance for him. 7:23 for Hocker was in the winter, and indoors, and Hocker isn't a serial time trialer. It's possible that "September '25 Hocker" could be in better shape than 7:23 if run outdoors in optimised conditions / with wave light pacing, etc.

Not saying Hocker is a 717 guy, but I think the fitness gap is narrower than 5 seconds.

That's the thing I think people (including and perhaps especially his competitors) have underestimated about Hocker - both in Paris and Tokyo.