The thing about Ventura is that they are really good, but they only have a top 5 (just like American Fork), that happen to be worse than AF. Ventura is like a beta version of American Fork.
Yeah Ventura’s top 5 is class of 2024 guys but they also has a freshman, who ran varsity last season, Blake Harris. He ran a 4:30 1600. Maybe he can step up big like many do from freshman to soph year
Firman was also flukey. They were the chute next to Rocky Mountain and two over from the middle barrier. Rocky cut over quickly and Great Oak got shot out the back.
This is why XC is so great. No matter the track times and times teams have been getting on California courses, other teams can be better because they take an opportunity and actually race good.
It's worth noting that CDA's number 5 ran 4:34/10:00 last week as a freshman. People keep on saying they need to find a number 5 but act like Rocky Mountain or Boise don't. As of right now, CDA's #5 is with Rocky's number 4 and Boise's number 5. That doesn't include Wyatt Carr.
CDA's lifetime 3200 PRs of guys currently on the roster: 9:13, 9:37, 9:39, 9:40, 10:00, 10:19 Rocky's: 8:59, 9:12, 9:56, 10:00, 10:07, 10:08, 10:10.
Right now, the top 25 5A state meet by 3200 PR goes: Rocky, Rocky, Eagle, CDA, Boise, Boise, CDA, Owyhee, Timberline, CDA, CDA, Thunder Ridge, Highland, Meridian, Boise, Capital, Centennial, Boise, Centennial, Centennial, Mountain View, Rocky, Eagle, Rocky, CDA, Boise. Bryson Blaser probably slots in around the Boise guys, and Wyatt Carr slots in around the 2 Centennial boys. CDA wins this format 56 to Rocky's 75 and Boise's 67. That doesn't account for Bryson Blaser or Wyatt Carr. Centennial would score ~100 slotting Bryson Blaser in after the Boise guys. Timberline is 210, Mountain View is 183, Eagle is 155. Obviously there's some issues with this. Guys in 5A District 3 like Bryson Blaser, Cole Reed, Thomas Stevens, Chase McComber, Branden Keetch, etc. have focused on lower events and have weak 3200s, so they aren't properly accounted for. Timberline has 2 or 3 boys missing because they just haven't even run a 3200. Those guys end up diluting the scoring runners in the 20's, though. That really kills Rocky more than anyone out of the top 4.
It's hard to see any Idaho team other than Boise or CDA qualifying for NXN with an at-large. Rocky looks to be pretty clearly the 3rd place Idaho team. Granted, they could make a large leap, but with what is known now, they don't look like an NXN team without getting another transfer that's on the same level as Hunter Hill.
It's worth noting that CDA's number 5 ran 4:34/10:00 last week as a freshman. People keep on saying they need to find a number 5 but act like Rocky Mountain or Boise don't. As of right now, CDA's #5 is with Rocky's number 4 and Boise's number 5. That doesn't include Wyatt Carr.
CDA's lifetime 3200 PRs of guys currently on the roster: 9:13, 9:37, 9:39, 9:40, 10:00, 10:19 Rocky's: 8:59, 9:12, 9:56, 10:00, 10:07, 10:08, 10:10.
Right now, the top 25 5A state meet by 3200 PR goes: Rocky, Rocky, Eagle, CDA, Boise, Boise, CDA, Owyhee, Timberline, CDA, CDA, Thunder Ridge, Highland, Meridian, Boise, Capital, Centennial, Boise, Centennial, Centennial, Mountain View, Rocky, Eagle, Rocky, CDA, Boise. Bryson Blaser probably slots in around the Boise guys, and Wyatt Carr slots in around the 2 Centennial boys. CDA wins this format 56 to Rocky's 75 and Boise's 67. That doesn't account for Bryson Blaser or Wyatt Carr. Centennial would score ~100 slotting Bryson Blaser in after the Boise guys. Timberline is 210, Mountain View is 183, Eagle is 155. Obviously there's some issues with this. Guys in 5A District 3 like Bryson Blaser, Cole Reed, Thomas Stevens, Chase McComber, Branden Keetch, etc. have focused on lower events and have weak 3200s, so they aren't properly accounted for. Timberline has 2 or 3 boys missing because they just haven't even run a 3200. Those guys end up diluting the scoring runners in the 20's, though. That really kills Rocky more than anyone out of the top 4.
It's hard to see any Idaho team other than Boise or CDA qualifying for NXN with an at-large. Rocky looks to be pretty clearly the 3rd place Idaho team. Granted, they could make a large leap, but with what is known now, they don't look like an NXN team without getting another transfer that's on the same level as Hunter Hill.
By my count, here are the number of Rocky, Boise, and CDA runners have so far run at least once fast enough to perhaps be the 5th place runner on a 2nd place NXR NW team (168 SR, 9:46, 4:33).
Rocky - 2
Boise - 4
CDA - 4
The number of runners who look close to that level, not counting incoming freshmen:
It's worth noting that CDA's number 5 ran 4:34/10:00 last week as a freshman. People keep on saying they need to find a number 5 but act like Rocky Mountain or Boise don't. As of right now, CDA's #5 is with Rocky's number 4 and Boise's number 5. That doesn't include Wyatt Carr.
CDA's lifetime 3200 PRs of guys currently on the roster: 9:13, 9:37, 9:39, 9:40, 10:00, 10:19 Rocky's: 8:59, 9:12, 9:56, 10:00, 10:07, 10:08, 10:10.
Right now, the top 25 5A state meet by 3200 PR goes: Rocky, Rocky, Eagle, CDA, Boise, Boise, CDA, Owyhee, Timberline, CDA, CDA, Thunder Ridge, Highland, Meridian, Boise, Capital, Centennial, Boise, Centennial, Centennial, Mountain View, Rocky, Eagle, Rocky, CDA, Boise. Bryson Blaser probably slots in around the Boise guys, and Wyatt Carr slots in around the 2 Centennial boys. CDA wins this format 56 to Rocky's 75 and Boise's 67. That doesn't account for Bryson Blaser or Wyatt Carr. Centennial would score ~100 slotting Bryson Blaser in after the Boise guys. Timberline is 210, Mountain View is 183, Eagle is 155. Obviously there's some issues with this. Guys in 5A District 3 like Bryson Blaser, Cole Reed, Thomas Stevens, Chase McComber, Branden Keetch, etc. have focused on lower events and have weak 3200s, so they aren't properly accounted for. Timberline has 2 or 3 boys missing because they just haven't even run a 3200. Those guys end up diluting the scoring runners in the 20's, though. That really kills Rocky more than anyone out of the top 4.
It's hard to see any Idaho team other than Boise or CDA qualifying for NXN with an at-large. Rocky looks to be pretty clearly the 3rd place Idaho team. Granted, they could make a large leap, but with what is known now, they don't look like an NXN team without getting another transfer that's on the same level as Hunter Hill.
By my count, here are the number of Rocky, Boise, and CDA runners have so far run at least once fast enough to perhaps be the 5th place runner on a 2nd place NXR NW team (168 SR, 9:46, 4:33).
Rocky - 2
Boise - 4
CDA - 4
The number of runners who look close to that level, not counting incoming freshmen:
Rocky ~10
Boise ~2
CDA ~ 3
Also:
BK: 3/2
Cent. 1/5
IF: 3/2
It’ll be a great season.
I think CDA will be better than Boise. CDA beat Boise at NXR and CDA returns everybody and adds W Carr
Centennial has 3 guys that have run at least 4:33 or 9:48.
Blaser- 4:16 McComber- 4:23 Keetch- 4:30
They also have Drew Donahue and Levi Hymas at 9:54. Arnulfo Romero is at 10:13.
Rocky would also have 3 considering that Cole Reed has run sub 4:33. Sam Jensen has also run a 4:10 1500, so really, they have 4.
What are you classifying as close to those marks? 10 guys looks like it's 4:45/10:30 on Rocky. A bunch of teams have guys that are close to that, then. Eagle has 2 guys currently, and another 2 that are close. Timberline has 1 guy currently, but 4 more close guys. Mountain View has 1 guy, and then 4 more close guys. "Close" needs a lot more definition.
Like people are saying, CDA probably beats rocky at any given meet, but I have a hard time seeing how Boise beats Rocky, especially at something like NXR.
Boise's number one guy can probably get top 10, their 2 can get top 25, but their 3 and 4 will be lucky to get top 50 based off XC pr's and track times. Unless they get a stud freshman or someone seriously steps up, they just don't have a 5th. Currently, their 5th is looking to crack the top 80 at NXR on a good day.
Rocky has a guy looking to win it, a guy who can probably get top 15, their freshman could likely snag a top 40, then their 4 and 5 (whoever that ends up being, based off of a pool of like 10 dudes) is probably going to run around the 60-70 place mark. Not to mention that there's a huge question mark about someone like Cole Reed.
I think that there are a few questions that need to be answered before we can accurately predict what is going to happen in Idaho this upcoming XC season.
1a. What is Rocky's coaching like? Clearly what the coaches did to get huge drops in time last year worked, but is it something sustainable for this season?
If so, then some of Rocky's 4:40/10:00 guys could easily jump into mid 15 type guys, definitely making them a threat to at least podium at NXR and get an at-large.
1b. What is going on with Cole Reed. Dude is clearly someone capable of mid to high 15's at the Eagle Island course, IF his track times translate. So what exactly is going on there?
2. Is Luke Athay coming back? And if so, will he be able to improve? If he's back, then Idaho falls could seriously become a threat in the NXRNW scene.
3. Is CDA going to have their Freshman recover quickly? Rumor has it that he's injured, and if he is, then CDA won't have a 5th man.
Centennial has 3 guys that have run at least 4:33 or 9:48.
Blaser- 4:16 McComber- 4:23 Keetch- 4:30
They also have Drew Donahue and Levi Hymas at 9:54. Arnulfo Romero is at 10:13.
Rocky would also have 3 considering that Cole Reed has run sub 4:33. Sam Jensen has also run a 4:10 1500, so really, they have 4.
What are you classifying as close to those marks? 10 guys looks like it's 4:45/10:30 on Rocky. A bunch of teams have guys that are close to that, then. Eagle has 2 guys currently, and another 2 that are close. Timberline has 1 guy currently, but 4 more close guys. Mountain View has 1 guy, and then 4 more close guys. "Close" needs a lot more definition.
Admittedly lots is missing in my breakdown, including some recent results.
In general terms, the 5th place runners on the top teams at NXR NW were speed rated at 175 and 168. Tully equates the 168 (a 168 is roughly 16:20 at Eagle Island) to about a 9:46/4:33 in track times. If we are looking for an Idaho team to make it to NXN, they need all 5 at least that fast, probably a little faster. I tried to give rough squad numbers on what that looks like for the teams.
2. Is Luke Athay coming back? And if so, will he be able to improve? If he's back, then Idaho falls could seriously become a threat in the NXRNW scene.
This is true. Besides Athay, they return 4 guys under 16:20.
At least at this point, the Northwest might just be the deepest region.
Crater, Jesuit, CDA. Rocky, Eastlake, Franklin, Seattle Prep, Boise, Idaho Falls all could get top 3 at NXR if things go their way and they have a good summer
It's hard to say. Historically California region and SouthWest regions have always seen as very dominant. I would say it probably will likely be the same next year unless a Northwest team wants to come out to Woobridge and show everyone who is boss early season. Then people will probably give Northwest one or two auto bids. Last year they were very good and probably should have gotten 1 but it is hard to predict if they will be as good the following year.
This post was edited 5 minutes after it was posted.
Firman was also flukey. They were the chute next to Rocky Mountain and two over from the middle barrier. Rocky cut over quickly and Great Oak got shot out the back.
This is why XC is so great. No matter the track times and times teams have been getting on California courses, other teams can be better because they take an opportunity and actually race good.
A tier - Southlake Carroll, Jesuit LA, The Woodlands,
B tier - Grapevine, Austin Vandergrift, Coppell
Exchange the Woodlands with Grapevine
I actually don’t see how The Woodlands and Coppell can be included here.
Woodlands didn’t make the podium at state and lose almost their whole varsity.
Coppell barely made the podium at state and loses 5 guys.
I do know that these 2 teams can reload, but it will be hard for them to compete against Southlake Carroll and Grapevine.
Southlake will be Southlake, and Grapevine made NXN last year and only lose Rayon. I think they can close the 4-5 gap pretty easily based on how well they reloaded in the past.
I think you are spot on about Vandegrift though. They return their 2-4, and they had lots of underclassmen step up during track. I think they will be very deep this season
Firman was also flukey. They were the chute next to Rocky Mountain and two over from the middle barrier. Rocky cut over quickly and Great Oak got shot out the back.
This is why XC is so great. No matter the track times and times teams have been getting on California courses, other teams can be better because they take an opportunity and actually race good.