OFFICIAL 2022 WOMENS Individual NCAA D1 XC Championships Predictions

TuohyFan · 2022-11-13T15:07:16-05:00

We’ve been predicting for months now on the [b]“Way Too Early”[/b] thread. 50 pages and 987 posts of knowledge, observations and thought sharing. [b]It’s been great![/b] Now The Big Dance is next weekend. The women have achieved all of the fitness they can at this point and are tapering and resting to be as fast as they can be this upcoming Saturday. So, who’ll win? My personal predictions have NOTHING to do with overall finishing times on any given course during this 2022 XC season. They’re based on who’s raced whom, and who won in head-to-head battles, and how that compares to other women in the NCAA. Not every woman has faced ALL of the competition during 2022. However, some women have raced enough of the various top guns in one race, and then in another race have faced some of the other top guns that by using them as a common reference competitor, predictions can be made. Through those various competitions and competitors, I came up with the following extremely solid predictions of the top-10 women:[b]1 Tuohy SO NC State [/b](defeated Chelangat by 12 seconds in a 5k @ Joe Piane) Undefeated during 2022 season on some of the more difficult courses in the NCAA (ie: Nuttycombe) [b] 2 Valby SO Florida[/b] (defeated Chelangat by 8 seconds @ SEC) Undefeated during 2022 season, ran possibly the fastest ever recorded 6k course in the history of the NCAA @ SEC in 18:25. Flat-fast courses during 2022 season[i] NOTE: 3, 4 & 5 could flip-flop in various ways:[/i] [b] 3 Chmiel JR NC State[/b] (12 seconds behind Tuohy @ ACC)- has been within 5 seconds of Tuohy @ Nuttycombe). Placed ahead of Chelangat due to being closer to Tuohy in a longer and more challenging course. [b] 4 Chelangat SR Alabama[/b] (12 seconds behind Tuohy in a 5k @ Joe Piane) Chelangat is ahead of McCabe based on the last time they were head-to-head was @ 2021 NCAA’s and Chelangat defeated her Ran possibly the 2nd fasted ever recorded 6k course in NCAA history at SEC in 18:33 [b] 5 McCabe JR West Virginia[/b] (2 seconds ahead of Roe @ Big 12) Undefeated during 2022 season [b] 6 Roe SR Oklahoma State[/b] (handily showed her teammates who’s leading her team @ Big 12 by being far ahead of them when sprinting w/ McCabe) [b] 7 Jepkirui FR Oklahoma State[/b] (6 seconds behind Roe @ Big 12) [b] 8 Kemboi SR Utah Valley[/b] (defeated Stearns by 8 seconds @ Mountain Region) [b] 9 Stearns SO NAU[/b] (8 seconds behind Chmiel @ Nutty, 9 seconds behind Roe @ Cowboy) [b] 10 Cook FR Oklahoma State[/b] (11 seconds behind Roe @ Big 12)Regardless of how this all turns out. The fact that OSU has 3 women very strongly possibly finishing in the top-10 is incredible and very well may have a chance at winning the team title. I’m excited to watch this race!Thoughts?

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3 years ago 11/16/2022 3:03pm EST

re: FastTuohy

FastTuohy wrote:
Link:citiusmag.substack.com/p/2022-ncaa-cro...

Thanks for sharing! They’re picking Valby. With the thoughts:

“She might have to run away with it. She has to get away from Tuohy with enough space to withstand a kick. She might have to kick a mile out. She has some strong victories this season when we saw her beat Chelangat at the SEC Cross Country Championship and at the South Regional.”

And then regarding Tuohy:

“Tuohy beat Valby head-to-head the last time they raced at the NCAA Championships 5000m final. Tuohy knows she can beat Valby. She can sit on Valby and be OK. You also can’t forget that Tuohy has run 4:06.84 for 1500m. If she can let Valby do the work and then go by her toward the finish, that could be her best way to win.”

I’m surprised with the statements they made that they still went with Valby.

3 years ago 11/16/2022 3:12pm EST

re: TuohyFan

This is a great read a few hours ago direct from the NCAA themselves:

ncaa.com

Making the case for 3 schools to win the DI women's cross country championship

We're days away from the 2022 DI cross country championships and there are some clear contenders for the title. Let's make a case for three to win the title.

Open link

3 years ago 11/16/2022 3:15pm EST

re: TuohyFan

TuohyFan wrote:
This is a great read a few hours ago direct from the NCAA themselves:
Link:www.ncaa.com/news/cross-country-women/...

Well this would be awesome!

“As good as NC State's top two runners are, its third and fourth runners are what sets it apart. Sydney Seymour and Samatha Bush have the potential to finish inside the top 10 at the championships, and it would be no surprise if NC State has the lowest combined point total across its top four runners of any school. If the Wolfpack's fifth runner can finish fast enough, NC State could become the first back-to-back women's champion since 2010.”

3 years ago 11/16/2022 3:18pm EST

re: TuohyFan

Valby v Tuohy, Tuohy v Valby (note eye roll).

IMO, PV will not be able to run away from a healthy KT, and will not be able to get far enough away from CMc or MC that they can’t close on the hills the second time around. Will be fun to watch.

3 years ago 11/16/2022 3:39pm EST

re: TuohyFan

TuohyFan wrote:
Link:www.thestridereport.com/post/blue-oval...
The Stride Report’s latest podcast is out where Ben and Garett discuss thoughts about Regionals and the upcoming championships.
On the women’s side, they mention they feel Chelangat would realistically be on the only one to expect to defeat Valby and Tuohy, essentially based on her winning it all previously, and on this same course. While I agree Chelangat is a phenomenal athlete, and I have her ranked high, I don’t think she’s had the kind of season that lends itself to seeing a possibly victory. Besides, she’s lost to both of them this season.
What really surprised me is I don’t remember them mentioning McCabe having a shot. They mentioned Roe and Cook as dark horses, but I don’t recall them discussing McCabe. Interesting…

This just OUT! Brace yourself for too much talking from the interviewer, but HOPEFULLY McCable will get a chance to talk!

dyestat.com

DyeStat.com - Videos - DyeStat Discussions - EP771 - Ceili McCabe

Ceili McCabe, a redshirt junior at West Virginia and the two-time Big 12 Conference cross country champion as well as an NCAA Division 1 All-American in cross country, indoor track and outdoor track who represented Canada at...

Open link

the superior athlete will show up wrote:
Valby’s tactic will be to invite anyone else to go over the edge with her.

Actually, I don’t think an early push by Valby is her best strategy to win this one.

3 years ago 11/16/2022 4:11pm EST

re: Blank231

Gault might know more.

3 years ago 11/16/2022 4:15pm EST

re: Blank231

Blank231 wrote:
I've become a Markezich fan after watching her race style at ACCs. I think she will bring it on Saturday.

I like her but don’t you think she starts a bit too fast? She got a lot of guts to race like that but maybe a more tempered approach would be better.

3 years ago 11/16/2022 4:19pm EST

re: Do not forget about McCabe

My pick will be: Roe, Valby, McCabe, Tuohy and Chimel.

Dark horse pick to win it all is Natalie Cook.

3 years ago 11/16/2022 4:22pm EST

re: TuohyFan

TuohyFan wrote:
TuohyFan wrote:
Link:www.thestridereport.com/post/blue-oval...
The Stride Report’s latest podcast is out where Ben and Garett discuss thoughts about Regionals and the upcoming championships.
On the women’s side, they mention they feel Chelangat would realistically be on the only one to expect to defeat Valby and Tuohy, essentially based on her winning it all previously, and on this same course. While I agree Chelangat is a phenomenal athlete, and I have her ranked high, I don’t think she’s had the kind of season that lends itself to seeing a possibly victory. Besides, she’s lost to both of them this season.
What really surprised me is I don’t remember them mentioning McCabe having a shot. They mentioned Roe and Cook as dark horses, but I don’t recall them discussing McCabe. Interesting…
This just OUT! Brace yourself for too much talking from the interviewer, but HOPEFULLY McCable will get a chance to talk!
Link:www.dyestat.com/gprofile.php?mgroup_id...

I think McCabe is planning on NOT waiting for the final sprint. She said twice “…attack the last couple minutes of the race”. I think she may have a plan to make her move from about 800m out.

I very much like how calm, insightful and respectful she is of her competition.

3 years ago 11/16/2022 4:24pm EST

re: Highly Disturbed

Highly Disturbed wrote:
My pick will be: Roe, Valby, McCabe, Tuohy and Chimel.
Dark horse pick to win it all is Natalie Cook.

Are you thinking that Roe has been holding back a bit this whole season and is going to show something different on Saturday with the home course pride, etc?

I like Roe a lot, and what she showed at Indoor Nationals was awesome.

3 years ago 11/16/2022 4:24pm EST

re: TuohyFan

TuohyFan wrote:
TuohyFan wrote:
Link:www.thestridereport.com/post/blue-oval...
The Stride Report’s latest podcast is out where Ben and Garett discuss thoughts about Regionals and the upcoming championships.
On the women’s side, they mention they feel Chelangat would realistically be on the only one to expect to defeat Valby and Tuohy, essentially based on her winning it all previously, and on this same course. While I agree Chelangat is a phenomenal athlete, and I have her ranked high, I don’t think she’s had the kind of season that lends itself to seeing a possibly victory. Besides, she’s lost to both of them this season.
What really surprised me is I don’t remember them mentioning McCabe having a shot. They mentioned Roe and Cook as dark horses, but I don’t recall them discussing McCabe. Interesting…
This just OUT! Brace yourself for too much talking from the interviewer, but HOPEFULLY McCable will get a chance to talk!
Link:www.dyestat.com/gprofile.php?mgroup_id...

McCabe is always in the discussion but a win by her will not surprise me. Chmiel could also sneak in there and surprise some people.

i honestly don’t think that Tuohy is injured or if she is, that it is a significant injury. I’m leaning toward going with either Tuohy or McCabe for the win, Chmiel, and Roe for the top 4. After that Valby, Mercy, and Cook but not necessarily in that order.

3 years ago 11/16/2022 4:25pm EST

re: TuohyFan

I missed most of the interview by trying to click through each 3 or 4 minute questions

3 years ago 11/16/2022 4:25pm EST

re: TuohyFan

The race starts at the 16min mark.

3 years ago 11/16/2022 4:26pm EST

re: Do not forget about McCabe

Do not forget about McCabe wrote:
TuohyFan wrote:
This just OUT! Brace yourself for too much talking from the interviewer, but HOPEFULLY McCable will get a chance to talk!
Link:www.dyestat.com/gprofile.php?mgroup_id...
McCabe is always in the discussion but a win by her will not surprise me. Chmiel could also sneak in there and surprise some people.
i honestly don’t think that Tuohy is injured or if she is, that it is a significant injury. I’m leaning toward going with either Tuohy or McCabe for the win, Chmiel, and Roe for the top 4. After that Valby, Mercy, and Cook but not necessarily in that order.

I like the shake-up! Throwing Valby back towards the 5th place range is an interesting pick. Do you think that’s because of the hills?

3 years ago 11/16/2022 4:27pm EST

re: Jedsdead

Jedsdead wrote:
I missed most of the interview by trying to click through each 3 or 4 minute questions

I know, right?

3 years ago 11/16/2022 4:27pm EST

re: Jedsdead

By the way...where is our loyal KT Update queen Semihaze these days?

the superior athlete will show up wrote:
The race starts at the 16min mark.

Near here on the course:

ibb.co

2789-AE9-E-1-C7-A-4-E2-F-838-C-F7-DE0-D1-F2514

Image 2789-AE9-E-1-C7-A-4-E2-F-838-C-F7-DE0-D1-F2514 hosted in ImgBB

Open link

Taylor knows where that’s at.

3 years ago 11/16/2022 4:44pm EST

re: Jedsdead

Jedsdead wrote:
By the way...where is our loyal KT Update queen Semihaze these days?

I think she was banned

3 years ago 11/16/2022 4:48pm EST

re: TuohyFan

TuohyFan wrote:
Do not forget about McCabe wrote:
McCabe is always in the discussion but a win by her will not surprise me. Chmiel could also sneak in there and surprise some people.
i honestly don’t think that Tuohy is injured or if she is, that it is a significant injury. I’m leaning toward going with either Tuohy or McCabe for the win, Chmiel, and Roe for the top 4. After that Valby, Mercy, and Cook but not necessarily in that order.
I like the shake-up! Throwing Valby back towards the 5th place range is an interesting pick. Do you think that’s because of the hills?

Yep, I’m not disregarding Valby but hills and cold are going to negatively impact her. McCabe & Tuohy are gutsy runners that have run on hills and are used to cold weather. Morgantown, WV is not flat and that is where McCabe trains. Valby could make the top 3 but I just don’t see it.

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