15:14 track 5k, 15:50 XC 5k this year. 20:08 @ Nutty in 2021. 4:06 1500m speed. Again, I predict 19:17 for her this weekend if conditions are right.
2 Samantha Bush NC State JR
15:45 track 5k, 16:11 XC 5k this year. 20:27 @ Nutty in 2021. 8:54 track 3k. 4:13 1500m speed.
3 Everlyn Kemboi Utah Valley SR
Not known for fast track running, she can run on the grass and her 2022 season is going phenomenally well. 3rd @ the Jamboree against 2 arguably top-5 national contenders and then backing that up with a victory @ Paul Short in 19:33 (course short? maybe, but she still won). She won’t win in a sprint finish, but she’ll race tough at the front.
4 Isabel Van-Camp Arkansas JR
I agree with FastTuohy. She’s just that good… 15:35 track 5k, 15:58 XC 5k, 19:54 XC 6k, 4:16 1500 speed
5 Emily Covert Colorado SO
15:35 track 5k, 19:51 XC 6k (I think she had a bad day @ Cowboy Jamboree as she was up with the leaders and fell way back, but that was several weeks ago), 9:04 track 3k speed.
6 Gracelyn Larkin New Mexico JR
15:29 track 5k, 19:41 XC 6k (at Altitude in Albuquerque a year ago).
7 Sydney Seymour NC State SR
15:34 track 5k, 19:46 XC 6k. 6th @ Joe Piane w/ Alabama’s two big guns ahead of her, and Oregon’s Kaylee Mitchell.
8 Emily Venters Utah SR
15:47 track 5k w/ a 33:07 track 10k. She’s fast AND strong.
9 Elise Stearns Northern Arizona SO
15:55 track 5k, 5th @ Cowboy Jamboree against Roe, Cook, and Kemboi.
10 Marlee Starliper NC State FR
From an injured not-ran for 2 seasons to BOOM a 15:36 track 5k, 2nd @ Adidas XC Challenge, and 12th @ Joe Piane (I think she’s just lacking a touch of fitness still as she was UP there with the leaders and then dropped in the last 1k). She’s continuing to improve and will be top-10 this weekend.
Very useful breakdown. Venters and Stearns ahead of Covert and Seymour for me. I think you nailed the top four--unless Larkin surprises us all. Is V-C the best XC runner in the SEC not attending Alabama? Right now, I have her in the SEC chase pack with Bockrath, Herman and Valby.
Will Tuohy attempt a sub-19:30 or focus on "pulling" Bush to 2nd? Bush may not need the help, but it wouldn't hurt.
I think Kaylee Mitchell will finish within the top 10, maybe top 5. Didn't she already defeat Bush this season?
Stride report race preview and nuttycombe podcast are both out. They put Kemboi as #2.
actually I misread how the data is portrayed - my error. I count 7 with ratings sub 15:30 - mostly from last outdoor season. I think only Tuohy (15:20), Cook (15:31), and Chelangat (15:32) have been rated faster than 15:34 so far this XC season.
To whom were you referring with the LACCTiC rating? Van Camp’s Chili Pepper race?
15:14 track 5k, 15:50 XC 5k this year. 20:08 @ Nutty in 2021. 4:06 1500m speed. Again, I predict 19:17 for her this weekend if conditions are right.
2 Samantha Bush NC State JR
15:45 track 5k, 16:11 XC 5k this year. 20:27 @ Nutty in 2021. 8:54 track 3k. 4:13 1500m speed.
3 Everlyn Kemboi Utah Valley SR
Not known for fast track running, she can run on the grass and her 2022 season is going phenomenally well. 3rd @ the Jamboree against 2 arguably top-5 national contenders and then backing that up with a victory @ Paul Short in 19:33 (course short? maybe, but she still won). She won’t win in a sprint finish, but she’ll race tough at the front.
4 Isabel Van-Camp Arkansas JR
I agree with FastTuohy. She’s just that good… 15:35 track 5k, 15:58 XC 5k, 19:54 XC 6k, 4:16 1500 speed
5 Emily Covert Colorado SO
15:35 track 5k, 19:51 XC 6k (I think she had a bad day @ Cowboy Jamboree as she was up with the leaders and fell way back, but that was several weeks ago), 9:04 track 3k speed.
6 Gracelyn Larkin New Mexico JR
15:29 track 5k, 19:41 XC 6k (at Altitude in Albuquerque a year ago).
7 Sydney Seymour NC State SR
15:34 track 5k, 19:46 XC 6k. 6th @ Joe Piane w/ Alabama’s two big guns ahead of her, and Oregon’s Kaylee Mitchell.
8 Emily Venters Utah SR
15:47 track 5k w/ a 33:07 track 10k. She’s fast AND strong.
9 Elise Stearns Northern Arizona SO
15:55 track 5k, 5th @ Cowboy Jamboree against Roe, Cook, and Kemboi.
10 Marlee Starliper NC State FR
From an injured not-ran for 2 seasons to BOOM a 15:36 track 5k, 2nd @ Adidas XC Challenge, and 12th @ Joe Piane (I think she’s just lacking a touch of fitness still as she was UP there with the leaders and then dropped in the last 1k). She’s continuing to improve and will be top-10 this weekend.
Even though they all have Kemboi ranked #2 for this race on their lists of predictions, on the Podcast, they mention that its most likely Bush that’ll be closest to Tuohy at the finish… :)
Even though they all have Kemboi ranked #2 for this race on their lists of predictions, on the Podcast, they mention that its most likely Bush that’ll be closest to Tuohy at the finish… :)
I listened to the pod and I literally think they just forgot about Kemboi. I don't think they mentioned her once
Yeah, the Podcast was funny. They literally did not mention Kemboi. HOWEVER, ALL of them on their lists of predictions have Kemboi #2…
My question remains : Everlyn Kemboi - the question is how much faster than 20:22 at OSU is she?"
I think there are quite a few people who can go faster than that at OSU this year. 20:22 early is good. But come November it might take 20:05 to make top 10.
It’s funny, Pre-Nats is this weekend with Roe & Cook giving their course another go against a diminished field, and Chelangat is running tomorrow morning in the Crimson Classic and Ceili McCabe is in the Penn State National Open. 4 of the top women in the country NOT at NuttyCombe and there is virtually NO news of those races, or them…
It’s ALL about Nuttycombe tomorrow. Excitement building!
the NM press conference following Joe Piane and looking ahead at Nuttycombe. Seems to be one per week. I would say healthy respect for NC State but no more than that.
“…come November it might take 20:05 to make top 10.”
This.
Agree. I think top 5 may very well go sub 20 this year (barring crazy weather).
Watching the end of the Jamboree, it was clear (at least to me) that Roe wasn't full out. Maybe she just didn't have it that day or it's still early, but when she is really kicking her stride is longer and more powerful. She looked like she was jogging at the end. I think she has a lot more.
Racing in the Nuttycombe Wisconsin Invitational on Friday morning will have No. 14 Arkansas competing amongst a field of 25 nationally-ranked top 30 women’s programs in a field of 36 teams.
