d3 xc nationals predictions

Brandeis_Buddy wrote:

My prediction as an infromed Brandeis University Cross Country Athlete:

Christopher Collet will not be able to wave his arms in victory 200 meters before the finish due to a decisive kick from Alex Phillip.

Wartburg as per usual will choke and get 12th-7th by sending their entire team to be glorified pacers for the first 5,000 meters only to fall into the void.

MIT is overinflated in terms of prowess. Top 3-4, but unlikely to win. Good pick for podium.

Braden Nicholson from North Central will be in the Top 5, I find it hard to say Top 3, but on a good day, he in the conversation to be runner up or 3rd.

And now for my most controversial: Pomona-Pitzer will not win the National Championship. I think they are an incredibly deep team, whose B team could easily be Top 5 in the nation if the coach wanted to run them. As me writing this, in California it is 63 and sunny with no wind. The conditions in East Lansing will be something they have never encountered. There are plenty of Eastern and Midwestern teams who have been exposed to this weather for 2-3 weeks already and have adjusted. I also considering that Pomona relatively little competition in comparison to Midwestern and Eastern teams, they will have to run extremely smart to win. Some teams are going to take it out to them.

I see something special from another team, one which has been peaking their abilities and is ready to go for the National Championship, North Central. They too have a super deep team when comparing them to Pomona-Pitzer, however, it is another aspect which makes them the favorite for me. They run incredibly smart. They are a work-up come from behind fight like hell type of team when on the course. Unlike other teams in the Midwestern region, in particular Wartburg who tends to run from the front and slowly drop off as time goes on. As a student of Brandeis University, I have not witnessed Pomona-Pitzer run, so I can't make claims about their team's chemistry, but considering that they will be in a foreign enviroment where the temperture will hover around 18 degrees when the gun goes off, and the fact that the competition will be taking it out to them from the start, I easily see a situation where the Midwestern and Eastern teams aclimated to the enviroment and who are just as fast will panic Pomona-Pitzer into running off their strategy or running too fast from the start.

Time will tell!

kiddoc wrote:

beersandmiles wrote:

If moving to a one team autoqualifier keeps teams out that would regularly get into the meet because of a horrible region, I'm all for it. It's absolutely not perfect but there have been years where some regions 5-7th best team would auto qualify in others.

A) show me a Nationals result where a fifth-team-in beat a regional champion.

B) I ran at nationals D3 in the 90s. You go once, and you get the confidence that you can compete there AND a hunger to go back. I think some of these “horrible regions” are going to be artificially kept horrible if they don’t get a shot at the big dance.

C) I guess on some level it’s a difference in philosophy. Even if you are right, I’d let the second team from a bad conference in over the fifth team from a good conference. Let them sort it out at Nationals.

Brandeis_Buddy wrote:

My prediction as an infromed Brandeis University Cross Country Athlete:

Christopher Collet will not be able to wave his arms in victory 200 meters before the finish due to a decisive kick from Alex Phillip.

Wartburg as per usual will choke and get 12th-7th by sending their entire team to be glorified pacers for the first 5,000 meters only to fall into the void.

MIT is overinflated in terms of prowess. Top 3-4, but unlikely to win. Good pick for podium.

Braden Nicholson from North Central will be in the Top 5, I find it hard to say Top 3, but on a good day, he in the conversation to be runner up or 3rd.

And now for my most controversial: Pomona-Pitzer will not win the National Championship. I think they are an incredibly deep team, whose B team could easily be Top 5 in the nation if the coach wanted to run them. As me writing this, in California it is 63 and sunny with no wind. The conditions in East Lansing will be something they have never encountered. There are plenty of Eastern and Midwestern teams who have been exposed to this weather for 2-3 weeks already and have adjusted. I also considering that Pomona relatively little competition in comparison to Midwestern and Eastern teams, they will have to run extremely smart to win. Some teams are going to take it out to them.

I see something special from another team, one which has been peaking their abilities and is ready to go for the National Championship, North Central. They too have a super deep team when comparing them to Pomona-Pitzer, however, it is another aspect which makes them the favorite for me. They run incredibly smart. They are a work-up come from behind fight like hell type of team when on the course. Unlike other teams in the Midwestern region, in particular Wartburg who tends to run from the front and slowly drop off as time goes on. As a student of Brandeis University, I have not witnessed Pomona-Pitzer run, so I can't make claims about their team's chemistry, but considering that they will be in a foreign enviroment where the temperture will hover around 18 degrees when the gun goes off, and the fact that the competition will be taking it out to them from the start, I easily see a situation where the Midwestern and Eastern teams aclimated to the enviroment and who are just as fast will panic Pomona-Pitzer into running off their strategy or running too fast from the start.

Time will tell!