Stop lying to yourselves about ATHING MU, she has WR potential

That's exactly what she needs to run lots faster, a stronger competition. If she can run 1:57 practically solo, one can only imagine what she is capable of if pushed hard.

wiederganger wrote:

I have to agree with Armstringlivs; whilst Mu is showing great potential, to talk about the likelihood of her breaking the 800m WR is nonsense at the moment. Let her settle into her senior years and run consistently in the 1:55-1:57 region first. She's only broken 2 mins twice for goodness sake! Let us also see her run against the international big girls too. Throw in experienced tacticians capable of running well under 2 mins, and her race will not be the same as competing against college girls who are running way outside 2 mins.

It is easy to be misunderstood when discussing issues where there is a difference of opinion.

But let me be clear - Athing Mu is an extraordinary talent and is amongst the best in the world in her age group if not the best. We don't know what she may achieve. And that is partly the point - we don't know.

It is possible she may go on to dominate her events on the international stage. But we also see that talent that shows itself at a young age doesn't necessarily improve to the degree we think it should. Ryun may be a case in point.

I have said two things on this thread: that with a prodigious 18 year-old talent we can't say with any assuredness what the future may bring. The second point, which I maintain with more confidence, is that I believe the women's 800m world record remains out of reach to any normal - and by that I mean natural - athlete. No doper - and they are out there - has managed to take it in nearly 40 years. Asking Mu to accomplish that as a clean athlete is like asking her equivalent in the short sprints to break Flojo's records. It won't happen.

Most of us know what she will achieve.

Well you're wrong. Mu is nothing like Ryan. He came from an era when professional middle distance running was just at the beginning and there were very little resources, knowledge and competition. He ran through his sheer talent and had not much to help him build on that. Now Mu is a generational talent that will also profit from modern coaching techniques, new shoes and plenty other resources to help her develope her gift into a WR. She will get it and will get it clean.

Bower Woman wrote:

Most of us know what she will achieve.

I suppose you foresaw the pandemic, too. You were a fortune-teller in your former life?

Ryun (not Ryan) trained like a horse. It wasn't just "talent".

I wonder what "other resources" you might be referring to that will help Mu to a wr performance. I think I know.

I'd set her chances at 45%

Fortune teller? What are you talking about? She is right in front of us and we have seen her run. Most of us just seem to be a lot smarter than you.

Armstronglivs wrote:

Ryun (not Ryan) trained like a horse. It wasn't just "talent".

I wonder what "other resources" you might be referring to that will help Mu to a wr performance. I think I know.

Training like a horse means nothing. You also have to do it right and Ryun definitely didn't have the right coaching nor resources to advance further.

I could tell you about the advantages that professional athletes have nowadays, like facilities, doctors, psychologists, management, coaching, sponsorships and many more, but will it make any difference to you?

Probably the only clean WR holder for you was Ryun.

Bower Woman wrote:

Fortune teller? What are you talking about? She is right in front of us and we have seen her run. Most of us just seem to be a lot smarter than you.

Since you are so smart then, you will be able to tell me exactly how fast will she run. Will she run 1.53-flat, or even faster? 1.52 - 1.51? Because you know this you will even be able to give me her splits (200m). You will also know when she will do this. While you are about it, perhaps you could enlighten me as to how many Olympic and world championship medals she will win.

Of course, at some point injuries will be inevitable, so perhaps you could forewarn her as to when this will happen and how she might avoid them.

If you were more intelligent you would recognize how ridiculous you have become with your belief that you can foretell the future.

think first wrote:

Armstronglivs wrote:

Ryun (not Ryan) trained like a horse. It wasn't just "talent".

I wonder what "other resources" you might be referring to that will help Mu to a wr performance. I think I know.

Training like a horse means nothing. You also have to do it right and Ryun definitely didn't have the right coaching nor resources to advance further.

I could tell you about the advantages that professional athletes have nowadays, like facilities, doctors, psychologists, management, coaching, sponsorships and many more, but will it make any difference to you?

Probably the only clean WR holder for you was Ryun.

When you listed the advantages athletes have today you left out doping. It is after all a doped wr that you confidently expect a clean athlete to beat.

So Ryun, who set multiple world records at the ages of 19/20, "didnt do it right". There would be many - Mu included, I'm sure - who would be happy to make his mistakes.

paris2024hawk wrote:

I'd set her chances at 45%

Only 45%? Not even 50%? You're out of step with the rest of the thread, who are confidently predicting 100% - that she will break the record.

Only a fortune teller could do the things that you are requesting. But telling you that she will break the world record? That is easy. That is like telling you that Nico Young will break 13:10 in a 5k during his lifetime. I have recommended that you offer odds to the community. We know that she will do it but you have admitted that you have no idea about the future. Yet you insult every poster who tells you what she is going to do. If you have no idea, please stop responding. This thread could be a very positive one if you had not posted.

Bower Woman wrote:

Only a fortune teller could do the things that you are requesting. But telling you that she will break the world record? That is easy. That is like telling you that Nico Young will break 13:10 in a 5k during his lifetime. I have recommended that you offer odds to the community. We know that she will do it but you have admitted that you have no idea about the future. Yet you insult every poster who tells you what she is going to do. If you have no idea, please stop responding. This thread could be a very positive one if you had not posted.

OK but the improvement of 15 seconds for Nico Young in a 5000m, which is likely but not guaranteed, is NOT the same as Athing improving by 4.46 seconds in an 800m especially when Athing is already better at 800m than Nico is at 5000m. It is much easier to knock 15 seconds off his 5000m. Let us say Nico could run 1:50 for 800m currently. Would you then expect he could eventually run 1:45.54? Very unlikely. You likely thought German Fernandez would run 13:00 one day considering he ran 13:25 at age 18.

think first wrote:

That's exactly what she needs to run lots faster, a stronger competition.

If she can run 1:57 practically solo, one can only imagine what she is capable of if pushed hard.

practically solo *and* with a negative split (which might be more relevant), so one would hope that she can go a bit faster during the summer with pacing and competition. However, a considerable improvement is not guaranteed. Competition is also pushing and shoving and not having a free stride.

Klosterhalfen at 20 yo ran 1500m in 3:59.58 basically solo (ran away after first lap) with a negative split. This was almost 4 years ago. Her PB is 3:58.92, almost no improvement vs. a solo run. Granted, she has focussed more on longer distances since then, but it is another case that some people are just very good at solo runs and don't gain so much from competition.

Bower Woman wrote:

Only a fortune teller could do the things that you are requesting. But telling you that she will break the world record? That is easy. That is like telling you that Nico Young will break 13:10 in a 5k during his lifetime. I have recommended that you offer odds to the community. We know that she will do it but you have admitted that you have no idea about the future. Yet you insult every poster who tells you what she is going to do. If you have no idea, please stop responding. This thread could be a very positive one if you had not posted.

It's "easy"for an 18 year-old 1.57-high runner to one day beat a decades-old doped world record that doped athletes haven't been able to beat? She's not even as fast as Dibaba, when the Ethiopian closed the last 800m at the 2015 world championships 1500 in 1.57.3. The equivalent to your overconfident prognostications is touting a clean young sprinting talent to beat Flojo's world records. The more you say the more absurd you become.

Jo72 wrote:

think first wrote:

That's exactly what she needs to run lots faster, a stronger competition.

If she can run 1:57 practically solo, one can only imagine what she is capable of if pushed hard.

practically solo *and* with a negative split (which might be more relevant), so one would hope that she can go a bit faster during the summer with pacing and competition. However, a considerable improvement is not guaranteed. Competition is also pushing and shoving and not having a free stride.

Klosterhalfen at 20 yo ran 1500m in 3:59.58 basically solo (ran away after first lap) with a negative split. This was almost 4 years ago. Her PB is 3:58.92, almost no improvement vs. a solo run. Granted, she has focussed more on longer distances since then, but it is another case that some people are just very good at solo runs and don't gain so much from competition.

Rationality is not needed here.

I won't pretend I saw what Athing has done in 2021 because I thought she may improve to 1:58.8 by the end of the season and she already blew that out the water. It's not far fetched that she may improve to around 1:55.9 which would make her a Gold medal favorite. Yes she is still a teenager but Pamela Jelimo ran 1:54.30 as a teenager and Athing is just as talented if not more so.

VIPAM wrote:

I won't pretend I saw what Athing has done in 2021 because I thought she may improve to 1:58.8 by the end of the season and she already blew that out the water. It's not far fetched that she may improve to around 1:55.9 which would make her a Gold medal favorite. Yes she is still a teenager but Pamela Jelimo ran 1:54.30 as a teenager and Athing is just as talented if not more so.

Jelimo was juiced.