Down goes the Dow

My results through 2/27:

Futures

SP600 smallcap +0.29%

Comex Gold +10.36%

STOCKS

AAPL -5.95%

A -1.041%

LRCX -4.81%

NFLX +22.83%

ROST -3.5%

TQNT +46.28%

NVR +16.04%

RYL +6.95%

Overall stocks: +9.5%

Once again, that's why you learn how to invest and invest in stocks, not mutual funds. Mutual funds are for people who don't know what they're doing.

sorry bro wrote:

agip wrote:

all time highs today for small cap and mid cap

By my rules I have to buy some gold on Friday - if it finishes above the 200 day moving average. that will be the first time I've owned gold in two years.

if it is true that you should be afraid every time you buy something...I should definitely buy gold here. I hate the stuff. as an investment. dumb, brute, primitive piece of metal. Profiting off fear.

agip,

Yes, it is definitely hated. What other asset could you imagine being up over a +400% gain in the past 13 years (about +13.5% annualized!) and still be hated as much as gold? It really is fascinating.

What percent of your portfolio will this gold holding represent?

What vehicle are you using for your gold position?

One more question - if you are using the 200-day moving average as your buy/sell criteria, why has it been two years since you owned it? (it appears to have been over the 200-day in late 2002 and early 2013)

sorry bro wrote:

sorry bro wrote:

agip,

Yes, it is definitely hated. What other asset could you imagine being up over a +400% gain in the past 13 years (about +13.5% annualized!) and still be hated as much as gold? It really is fascinating.

What percent of your portfolio will this gold holding represent?

What vehicle are you using for your gold position?

One more question - if you are using the 200-day moving average as your buy/sell criteria, why has it been two years since you owned it? (it appears to have been over the 200-day in late 2002 and early 2013)

I wimped out on the earlier breaks above the 200 day - I overrode my system because I don't like gold as an investment. What can I tell you - I just was too scared.

I'll use IAU

As for size - it will be

coach d wrote:

My results through 2/27:

Futures

SP600 smallcap +0.29%

Comex Gold +10.36%

STOCKS

AAPL -5.95%

A -1.041%

LRCX -4.81%

NFLX +22.83%

ROST -3.5%

TQNT +46.28%

NVR +16.04%

RYL +6.95%

Overall stocks: +9.5%

Once again, that's why you learn how to invest and invest in stocks, not mutual funds. Mutual funds are for people who don't know what they're doing.

coach d, every time you post results they are 2-10x what the market has done. You are without doubt the best investor I have ever heard of.

sorry bro wrote:

agip wrote:

all time highs today for small cap and mid cap

By my rules I have to buy some gold on Friday - if it finishes above the 200 day moving average. that will be the first time I've owned gold in two years.

if it is true that you should be afraid every time you buy something...I should definitely buy gold here. I hate the stuff. as an investment. dumb, brute, primitive piece of metal. Profiting off fear.

agip,

Yes, it is definitely hated. What other asset could you imagine being up over a +400% gain in the past 13 years (about +13.5% annualized!) and still be hated as much as gold? It really is fascinating.

What percent of your portfolio will this gold holding represent?

What vehicle are you using for your gold position?

as for size, it will be

something weird going on with the boards. less than 1% of my total portfolio and 5% of my fun money portfolio.

coach d wrote:

Once again, that's why you learn how to invest and invest in stocks, not mutual funds. Mutual funds are for people who don't know what they're doing.

Aren't mutual funds run by people who "know what they're doing?"

all time highs again for world stocks

agip wrote:

coach d wrote:

My results through 2/27:

Futures

SP600 smallcap +0.29%

Comex Gold +10.36%

STOCKS

AAPL -5.95%

A -1.041%

LRCX -4.81%

NFLX +22.83%

ROST -3.5%

TQNT +46.28%

NVR +16.04%

RYL +6.95%

Overall stocks: +9.5%

Once again, that's why you learn how to invest and invest in stocks, not mutual funds. Mutual funds are for people who don't know what they're doing.

coach d, every time you post results they are 2-10x what the market has done. You are without doubt the best investor I have ever heard of.

I think that you may be forgetting the only investor on the planet who has BEATEN THE DOW FOR 24 YEARS IN A ROW!

You forgot someone wrote:

agip wrote:

coach d, every time you post results they are 2-10x what the market has done. You are without doubt the best investor I have ever heard of.

I think that you may be forgetting the only investor on the planet who has BEATEN THE DOW FOR 24 YEARS IN A ROW!

yeah, but FP says he only beats the market by a small amount. With Coach D it is orders of magnitude.

agip wrote:

You forgot someone wrote:

I think that you may be forgetting the only investor on the planet who has BEATEN THE DOW FOR 24 YEARS IN A ROW!

yeah, but FP says he only beats the market by a small amount. With Coach D it is orders of magnitude.

True enough.

I only wish that these others were as respectful of the truth as you are.

agip wrote:

yeah, but FP says he only beats the market by a small amount. With Coach D it is orders of magnitude.

Correct! I HAVE beaten the Dow every year since 1989, and usually that's by just a little bit. Last year I was losing to the Dow even past mid-way, but then my stuff rallied and I beat the Dow again.

Diversification and stuff invested with Vanguard and Fidelity have made it happen. One of the reasons why I like both of those companies so much.

Beating the Dow so far this year too.

The S&P 500 (.SPX) gained 5.16 points or 0.28 percent, to 1,859.45, a record close. The S&P 500 hit an intraday record of 1,867.92.

Finally 1850 is in the rear view mirror.

Monthly update:

Klondike5 continues to be on the wrong side of the bet -

here's where we are since the thread started on 8/27:

DJIA +11.7% including dividends

World stocks +13.9% including dividends

If you believe the OP sold at Dow 15,000, then he is down 9.9% including dividends.

February was a stunning month - globally stocks were up around 5%. And bonds were up 0.48% too, so everyone is happy.

Meanwhile, the DOW actually just started to go down.

The Dow might be setting up a double top (or "M" top) that would signal the end of a 2 1/2 year bull market. The left side began 12Dec and finished the first side on 2Jan. The next move was down to 2Feb and then back up to 16397 last week. A move below the Feb low close of 15440-ish would mark the completion of the right side and signal a major reversal.

A move that low would also close below the 200 day MA at 15,570, which would be another bearish signal.

There is also a mini "M" pattern on the left side of the M. Another mini M pattern on the right side would indicate a test of the 15440 level.

I wouldn't be investing more money in the SP500 right now.

The scary thing is that FP probably believes he actually has beaten the Dow every year since 1989.

Seeing as how he has Fidelity and Vanguard with their hands in his pockets, the reality is that he has beaten the Dow well less than half the time. That is a fact

The bet ain't over until I return to the market.

Which I will after the next collapse seems to be over. When I suspect the Dow will be well below the 15k I got out at.

The only question is when. I panicked too early this time. Which is okay; I was a little late getting out in 2008 and rode the Dow down from mid 1ks4 to mid 12ks before I got out while you geniuses enjoyed the ride down to less than $7k

K5 wrote:

The scary thing is that FP probably believes he actually has beaten the Dow every year since 1989.

Seeing as how he has Fidelity and Vanguard with their hands in his pockets, the reality is that he has beaten the Dow well less than half the time. That is a fact

Assuming the odds of beating an index in any year is 50% -- actually less when invested in a managed fund -- the odds of beating the Dow 25 years in a row is (1/2)^25. or IMPOSSIBLE