Unofficial 2019 D3 XC Thread (Official)

As Ryan Cutter’s roommate, I’m disappointed with the field simply holding off and not going out. My roommate led from 1k to 7k, giving me the impression that no one is a clear favorite.

Besides that, North Central refuses to lose, Pomana Pitzer peaked (good job lads), Wartburg is solid, and Washington and Lee lost to Chicago. The fact that Chicago is the most aggressive team shows that the field is soft. This was discussed with Ryan Cutter since I’m his roommate.

Ryan Cutter's Roommate wrote:

As Ryan Cutter’s roommate, I’m disappointed with the field simply holding off and not going out. My roommate led from 1k to 7k, giving me the impression that no one is a clear favorite.

Besides that, North Central refuses to lose, Pomana Pitzer peaked (good job lads), Wartburg is solid, and Washington and Lee lost to Chicago. The fact that Chicago is the most aggressive team shows that the field is soft. This was discussed with Ryan Cutter since I’m his roommate.

Look buddy, your roommate is big-time talent. But today, he was a big-time dumba**.

Well hello, Berea.

East coast is gonna be up there this year, some times from today’s races

Aiden Ryan- 23:56

Patrick Watson- 24:00

Jared Pangalozzi- 24:02

Sean McAneny- 24:17

Danny Aschale- 24:17

Also Lucas Meuller? 25:56

Second race in a row he has run well below his abilities

How were the conditions at Oshkosh? Times weren't as fast as probably many would have expected. Some really good racing on the East Coast this weekend. The race for the men's individual title at nationals is going to be quite the show this year.

Conditions were low 50’s, not much wind, course was a little soft and wet but not a complete mud fest. I’d say around 20s slower than the “lights-out A+” Oshkosh day that comes around every few years.

bEast coast wrote:

East coast is gonna be up there this year, some times from today’s races

Aiden Ryan- 23:56

Wait, what's Aidan Ryan's last name?

For anyone referencing times, remember: its cross country. Each course runs differently based on terrain/weather conditions plus arbitrary measurements can have some courses as short or long. Comparing times from the Oshkosh meet against the Connecticut meet or Rowan meet doesn't make sense. Comparing bodies can be a bit more helpful although certainly each runner's performance can change a bit from meet to meet. Typically looking at team spreads is normally the most helpful way to compare teams across different meets.

At Lousiville:

1. Nault, LAX- 2419

2. Freyaldenhoven- Rhodes- 2422

3. Osmulski- NCC 2424

4. Hampton- Otterbein 2430

5. Beutel- NCC 2431

6. Pangallozzi- Hopkins 2435

7. Pommier- NCC 2435

8. Aschale- Conn 2439

9. Whetstone- Emory 2439

10. Mah- MIT 2444

Then looking at the respective meets and assuming they roughly would perform similarly, even though Watson ran 24:00, with Pangallozzi so close, not sure how Watson would have fared at pre-nats or at the Oshkosh met although he has looked super impressive thus far this season. Aschale lost by 20 seconds today (2nd to Ryan at Conn), assuming he ran similarly, looks like Ryan would be pretty close to the front at both Oshkosh and Prenats. Again, only using those two as data points makes it tougher but that rough idea I think shows a clear front tier for nationals.

Matteucci, Nault, Watson, Ryan, Osmulski, Schraeder (Lax, just beat Nault at home meet and was 5th last year), Nault, Freyaldenhoven.

I feel like the national champion will probably be one of the guys listed above.

Noticeably absent is Mueller who is maybe injured? Has run twice this season and both races have been very forgettable.

Team wise, clearly down to NCC and Williams at this point. Tougher to compare again timewise but if we assume Ryan is a tad bit better than Osmulski, NCCs 33 sec spread today (roughly the same as pre-nats if you include both races they were in since some of those blue race guys were in the top 7 today) deff trumps Williams 73 sec spread but its more than that- Ncc's 1-5 spread is better than Williams 1-2 spread at Conn. Unless Ryan is going to run away from everyone at nationals (which maybe he does, he's looked great this season), I think its safe to say that thus far, NCC is clearly the better team and I don't think its particularly close. But we have more than a month to go and that's why they run the races. Wouldn't surprise me to see Williams continue to improve if Cox can get back to form and add a better 1-2 punch. Should be an exciting national meet this year for sure!

Its been at least a few years since there wasn't a clear cut favorite for the individual title (Patel, Lau, Lamere, Lamere, Wintheiser) so should be interesting to see how that shakes out.

Team wise, as of now, I feel like its NCC clear cut #1, Williams clear cut #2 and everyone else fighting for the podium as of now.

But if Ryan's performances to date are more than a "tad bit better" than Osmulski's, the NCC vs Williams comparison becomes a whole lot less clear cut.

There's no way to know, but (for fun) if we use the top 2 men from MIT and RPI as comparators and correct times to MIT's 1 (Mah), here's the comparison of NCC and the MIT/RPI "controls".

Osmulski (NCC 1) - 20 sec (compared to Mah)

Beutel (NCC 2) -13 sec

Pommier (NCC 3) -9 sec

Mah [MIT] 0

Davis [RPI] + 3 sec

Raman [MIT] +7 sec

Falasco [RPI] + 11 sec

Sebastian (NCC 4) + 20 sec

Shroda (NCC 5) +30 sec

Rohr (NCC 6) +32 sec

By comparison, here's the comparison of Williams versus the MIT/RPI "controls" this weekend:

Ryan (Williams 1) -57 sec

Lindgren (Williams 2) - 11 sec

Davis [RPI] - 1 sec

Mah [MIT] 0 sec

Gannon (Williams 3) + 1 sec

Marshall (Williams 4) +2 sec

Raman [MIT] +9 sec

Cox (Williams 5) + 16 sec

Falasco [RPI] + 24 sec

McGovern (Williams 6) + 24 sec

Of course, these comparisons are ALWAYS flawed, but Mah, Davis, and Raman had pretty consistent performances relatively to one another in these two races. With that in mind, I don't think that North Central's performance in the Silver race at Louisville was clearly better than Williams' performance two weeks later. Granted, North Central's incredible depth becomes a wildcard in any prediction. The team that ran in the Louisville Silver race had a completely different 4-7 than the team that ran this weekend at Oshkosh.

Penn State Penitentiary wrote:

Matteucci, Nault, Watson, Ryan, Osmulski, Schraeder (Lax, just beat Nault at home meet and was 5th last year), Nault, Freyaldenhoven.

You've got Nault in there twice.

PlankandSimple wrote:

Penn State Penitentiary wrote:

Matteucci, Nault, Watson, Ryan, Osmulski, Schraeder (Lax, just beat Nault at home meet and was 5th last year), Nault, Freyaldenhoven.

You've got Nault in there twice.

That's because he has twice the odds as everyone else

Hey don’t forget about Matt Wilkinson. His team blows chunks and probably won’t qualify for nationals, but after sucking the life out of Lucas Mueller and his 200 mile/week training, I- I mean Matt- am making a run for the national title.

charlietown wrote:

bEast coast wrote:

East coast is gonna be up there this year, some times from today’s races

Aiden Ryan- 23:56

Wait, what's Aidan Ryan's last name?

Cox

If Williams isn’t the unanimous #1 in today’s polls I will be triggered like the rest of my left wing allies.

Matt Wilkinson wrote:

Hey don’t forget about Matt Wilkinson. His team blows chunks and probably won’t qualify for nationals, but after sucking the life out of Lucas Mueller and his 200 mile/week training, I- I mean Matt- am making a run for the national title.

Wilkinson will go top 10, or else I'll post a face reveal

No one wants to see your face, Ryan, we get it you think your fast.

TRIGGERED!!!!

USTFCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCA gives WashU the boot