Northwest XC 2024

Nice. Any chance of 2 at large bids this year? What would have to happen?

Extremely low chance. I would say 3-4%

The Northwest has only really been super strong in terms of depth (having a lot of good teams) since covid. 2021, 2022, 2023, were all years were you could reasonably argue that the northwest had 5 or more teams in the top 30 or so in the nation.

The northwest has had several NXN winning teams, (Bozeman, North Central, Gig Harbor) but because we've only recently been super deep, I don't think we have built up enough historical precedent for chronic at-larges (most of the time 1, occasionally 2) like California or the midwest has, or have been so dominant this year and last year, that everyone and their dog wants us to get 2 at-larges, like the southwest has.

The southwest will get 2. Everyone agrees on that. The problem comes with the Midwest, and the South, and even California. All of these regions are pretty deep.

The south was pretty bad in 2022 (partially due to sickness), but in 2023 improved by a lot, and has improved yet again this year. This improvement is both in terms of the top teams looking to podium or top 5, and depth within the region. The South has a very good chance to get an at-large.

Problem #2 is the Midwest. Pre/Early season, most people wrote off the Midwest. They have been very very good historically (maybe the best region historically for the boys) for both depth and top tier performances. They are likely to get an at-large, as Downer's Grove North is shaping up to be a sleeper top 4-5 at NXN, and several other teams behind them, which preseason all looked solid, have fallen into line. If NXR Midwest is even somewhat close for 2nd and 3rd (like 20-30 points), they will likely get an at-large.

Problem #3 is California. Pre-season, and especially after Woodbridge, everyone, including myself, thought they would not be good enough for an at-large. However, consider that the committee is headed by Rich Gonzalez (PrepCalTrack's CEO, and the California XC Guru). On top of this, Crater did everyone in the Northwest a disservice by going to Ascis Clovis, and only placing 3rd. Now one could argue that this cancels out the fact that Crater beat all the Cali teams at Woodbridge, but the selection team hypothetically does not look at Woodbridge within the window that they use to select at-larges. Which means, California teams have beaten Northwest teams head to head, within the selection window. Now this doesn't mean that California will get an at-large, or that it's even likely, but it does mean that what used to be maybe a 5-10% chance for a Cali at-large is now looking to be like 15-20%.

If any of the following regions have relatively close NXR/State meets, then the Northwest will only get 1 at-large: South, Midwest, California.

A nightmare scenario would have the California state meet be incredibly close, NXR Midwest is incredibly close, and either Carroll or Vandegrift from Texas choke and get 3rd at NXR South. In this scenario, all three of those regions could feasibly get an at-large over the Northwest, leaving us with only 2 teams.

I'm looking over my post from yesterday and I would like to add a couple of points.

1. Crater is a very good team, and reading my post at a glance can make it appear that I don't like them. I'm a big fan of Crater, but their Clovis performance does hurt everyone in the Northwest.

2. California does have an even stronger case for an at-large with Jesuit CA. First and foremost, they are a very historically good team. I think that although the committee has never layed out historical precedence for a specific team as a qualification to get at-larges, from what I've seen, they do like to choose teams that historically have been good. Which makes sense. Look at 2022 for example, the 3 main teams up for the last at-large were Downer's Grove North, Mountain View UT, and Rocky Mountain. Looking at that from a purely historical precedence perspective, their choice of the first two teams would be the logical choice.

Jesuit came up to Portland and won the Nike Portland XC race. In my initial post, I didn't talk about this, because although the best Northwest teams in that race were only Summit, Mountain View, and Franklin, (teams that are hoping for 5th or 6th at best) they did beat Cheyenne Mountain, a team that will probably only finish 6th-8th in the Southwest. However, considering how good the Southwest is this year, a California team beating a mid-tier Southwest team, ends up looking very good.

I still don't think the odds of a Cali at-large are any higher than 20%, BUT if Rich and the rest of the committee are looking at California teams seriously, this, and what was mentioned in my other post, could provide a somewhat reasonable basis for selecting a Cali team.

What if Jesuit CA and Arnold Beckman autoqualify?

Thoughts on the Girls at large teams?

Southwest is getting two for sure. They had that 1-4 sweep last year. I think California will get at least one at large, maybe two

They will autoqualify, and even if they don't, it is because they are not performing well post season. Which would be a bad look for them.

I don't agree with the sentiment that Crater getting 3rd at Asics Clovis is a hit for the Northwest region. Everyone in the California thread agrees after what happened at woodbridge, california doesn't deserve any at-large. Your forgetting that Crater got 3rd at Woodbridge and was really close to South #1 (3rd at nxn in 2023) and BEAT Hamiltion (which I can garuntee you will be Southwest 3 or 4 at nxr southwest (the southwest likes to act like they are 6-8 but I can promise you that won't be the case)) Hamiliton is coached by an olympian coach.. People were thankful that Crater gave our teams a chance by taking a trip up to clovis to redeem themselves.

As for Jesuit CA's trip to Northwest, they were hoping to go against Jesuit OR at their home course.

I think Northwest and Midwest are in a good position to get at-larges. I think South is that wildcard. It could be a really tough decision if #3 South can finish closer to Carroll and Vandegrift at NXR.

Not really important - just some WA specific lore here, but pretty crazy how Mead got themselves into this race.

They didn't even qualify for state as a team (different story, WA state Qualifying system is broken), but they showed out so well with 4 runners they got themselves a bid. Looking at who else was in the mix, don't think anyone really got snubbed. You could argue Arlington cause they ran out of their minds at their district meet, but unfortunately had some sickness at state so underperformed.

Arlington or mnt Spokane should have gotten in over mead TBH

big picture it doesn’t matter

All of CDA’s top 7 have a 5k PR of sub-16

You think so?

I feel like Mead is the stronger team.

Girls championship race about to start soon

Huyler FTW

No final team results yet. But at 4K, Rocky in the huge lead. Second place is a battle

Rocky 99

Lincoln 183

Timberline 187

Looks like Jesuit only ran 5 girls. Must have had a serious illness hit the team?

That’s what the runnerspace announcers were saying

Thanks had the sound down and college football on at the same time

Hope they are all ok.

Kitchen FTW

7 sub-15 guys

CDA had all 7 in the top 90 overall