"I guess this is the LAST season" — Katelyn Tuohy

I differ here with 'oranges n apples'. Rather than last week's follow the Monsoon route, I think she just trusts Elly to get her efficiently in the right position at 2k, and then they will race from there. Elly (like Chmiel) is very good at patiently working her way through the field. My concern is that a sprint first hundred and then tracking the 8:20 leaders is a recipe to crash, burn and run 9:05 lol. Follow Elly, 2k at 5:50, finish strong competing for 3rd.

When Schweizer set the record the three leaders she ran behind came in right under the prior record. I think they all ran within the 8:41 range. Sounds like the pace of this race will be more complicated. I would think try to stay with the leaders as long as possible, but we will see.

Morgan, Galvan will most likely get out hard and stick to the lead group as long as they can hoping to break 8:40. Tuohy will have a lot of competition for 3rd.

You raise some interesting points, though I don’t think Tuohy can resist going strong for the first 100 and then perhaps falling back to a more comfortable 34/35 pace. If she gets dropped at that point she has the discipline to hold back with the first chase group without regressing to a 9 minute pace (36 pace). She’ll know in the first few laps what to do. Hoping she feels well enough to chase the record or alternately an aggressive PR.

you have to go out hard or you end up in 14th, or in lane 2

Welp... now they have shuffled some start positions around again. Henes still in #1, but Tuohy #6, Monson #7, pacer #10, Cranny #14 . Interesting they have Tuohy next to Monson now for 2nd race in a row.

Also lists everyone's indoor PRs. Has cranny really not run 3k indoors since college? She ran 8:29 outdoor last summer.

I somewhat disagree about Tuohy following Elly’s lead. I know Elly has some marginally better numbers than Tuohy but I believe KT has recently moved past Elly and it would be a mistake if she followed her for the first, 2K. They might just wind up at 5:55 or 6:00, with only 1K to make up too much ground. I believe KT will end up ahead of both Henes and Steelman this Saturday. She’s on a steep progression rate that outstrips them. She should pace herself to get to 2K in no slower than 5:50 and optimistically a bit under. This would set her up for a strong final K. Perhaps looking for Gavin would be the better strategy…then both can perhaps hit the targeted 8:40 and give her a better chance to finish no worse than 3rd. I don’t believe either Henes or Steelman are in 8:40 shape. Henes is stronger in the 5K distance but this is the speedier 3K and KT knows exactly what she needs to do. I believe this is the more natural distance for her.

I think the best bet is to follow Monson. Losing contact with the race leaders to run with a second group that may or may not be running record pace is too risky. Just has to avoid redlining.

Completely agree with RunForLife2. Galvan is the best choice though hopefully one of Elly or Whittni, and maybe someone else, will also be near 8:40 pace. Alternatively, Tuohy could try to hang with Cranny and Monson (thinking that she was able to hang with Monson on the mile) but runs the risk of getting burned by a too fast pace. It will be very interesting to see how she handles this, which will be a test all of its own.

Unless Tuohy can suddenly run 14:30 Monson might be going too fast. The OAC boys think (but do not know) that she will be going hard aiming at 8:25.

KT/Coach Henes have been practicing closing from 1k for all of 2022 and Tuohy recently referred to 'closing the usatf 5000 in 4:30, just to be competitive'. This is the perfect field to test their progress. So expend as little energy as possible in the first 2k, and then crank it up. 2:55, 2:55, 2:50 is 8:40. (Hell 3:00, 3:00, 2:40 is 8:40)

There are 13 runners and a pacer. Let's say Touhy is 10th at 2k mark, most of the field will be right there in front of her to try and run down. I'll predict she gets all except for 4:

1-Monson

2-Cranny

3- Galvan

4-Orton-Morgan

5-Touhy 8:44 (10 second pr , #3 ncaa)

Of course, if Monson is pushing 33’s early on Tuohy will know that is beyond her ability and she will adjust and fall back. Her HS coach claimed she has a ‘metronome’ and always knows what pace she’s on and maintains it like no one else. As long as she runs within herself (controlled/relaxed) she will maximize her performance. As others have pointed out she needs to be careful not to get ‘boxed in’ and stick to a plan and only push beyond in the last lap or two, if she feels like she has more to give. Her best performances have followed this pattern.

That is a very risky approach.

I meant to say that Gator Bait's approach is very risky.

Predicting a forced ranking is always dangerous. Agree with 1 and 2. No reason to believe she doesn’t have a shot beating Galvan and/or Morgan. 2 weeks ago Morgan just out-kicked her by a step on a shorter distance. 3K is more in KT’s recent wheelhouse and I’m not so sure Morgan can consistently out-kick her. We’ll see…

Not really in a race you r not trying to win. We all kind of know how times will be. 1-2 8:30, 3-4 8:40, 5-13 strung out 8:44-9:05.

In this situation, I'd rather be finishing strong and passing people, than fading and watching them all blow by.

Perhaps. The times could be a bit optimistic. A couple of competitors have PB’s well north of 9 minutes. Not everyone is in shape to run PB’s…otherwise, a string of runners from 8:30 to 9:00+ sounds about right.

I know everyone is predicting huge things this season for Tuohy, but until Tuohy proves otherwise Henes has faster PR's indoors and outdoors in the 3k and 5k. I wouldnt say marginally either. I have high hopes for what Tuohy can do outdoors but for now she hasn't come close to 14:52 in the 5k and Henes also ran an 8:42 3k en route in the 2 mile at the Pre classic last year which is right around the time that Tuohy hopes she can run. Maybe she's rusty but seeing as she's entered into the 3k at Indoor Champs next weekend i would assume Henes is in pretty good shape to run low 8:40's as well.

I am with you. Galvan, Henes, Orton-Morgan and Tuohy might have a battle finishing either side of 8:40. Eleanor Fulton might be there too although her first race this year was only 4:14 - well off the 4:05s she was throwing down last year. I think the rest of the field is high 8:40s and slower.