Interesting takes Fast and Fan. At this part of the season, I tend to give more weight to ‘indicators of fitness at 6K’ and thus high finishers at Stillwater like Frentheway, Mitchell, Reiss, Ramsden, Roarke et al will have my attention in Wisconsin. There’s always the question of fitness progress vs a seasonal plan that doesn’t want people to peak for a bit, as well performance relative to an expected ceiling but I’m more impressed by what happened at Stillwater than South Bend. That additional 1K changes the equation for many; we’ll see how it goes.
I think this
"There’s always the question of fitness progress vs a seasonal plan that doesn’t want people to peak for a bit"
is the big unknown in translating early season results to mid Oct and later.
One could argue that both NC St and NM ran better at Nuttycombe last year than they did at Joe Piane 2 weeks earlier. I certainly think CO will be better than they showed at OSU, and AR too (especially Van Camp). I would put that in the seasonal plan category (along with most of the top programs). UT Valley is one I am wondering about. Mitchell ran at Joe Piane!
So who do you like for top 10?
This is exactly why I prefer to WATCH the races. You can see who’s up there and who “POOF” vanishes. Then, look back on the results, get a feel for what happened and as is in the case (I believe) of Starliper, looks like speed and confidence is there 100%, just a ‘lil more fitness needed to maintain.
One thing I mentioned earlier in the thread that always excites me about early season meets: If they’re doing THIS already, and they maintain fitness and health, then we SHOULD be excited, ‘cause they haven’t even tapered yet. They’re still coming off of summer mileage.
Most of the rankers have Van Camp around 20th in NCAA (meaning ~15th in this meet). I think they have her underrated by a lot.
I agree. I’ll tell everyone this right now, this woman is coming to RACE this weekend!
I have her ranked #4 in this race. And I have another example as to why, (please read below):
In a recent interview that’s posted on Runnerspace, Van Camp sat down and talked about races, experiences, things she’s learned, etc. At 18:35 into the interview, when addressing her performance at the recent Cowboy Jamboree, (where she placed 10th in 20:37), she said this:
”I think the thing that I was frustrated about was not necessarily where I finished or what my time was, that was secondary. I think it was more so I didn’t feel like the effort that I put forth that day was representative of the work that I’ve been doing and I think that I felt like I sold myself short; and I sold my teammates short. And that I respect my teammates; I respect my coaches, I respect myself enough that I don’t wanna give less than my best. And that the temporary pain of a race or losing focus; its just the energy that it takes to re-focus or to push through the inevitable pain of a race is much easier to deal with then feeling like you let down people that you care about, afterwards.
I think that, that it just, I think that I just needed a little bit of a wake-up, that day.”
What’d she do the next weekend? She went out and won the Chili Pepper Festival 5k in 15:58…
Top group after KT in no particular order — Frentheway, Kemboi, Mitchell, Brown, Stearns, Hertenstein, Roarke, Bush, VanCamp.
Re: VanCamp — as Harter pointed out last November, she ran the last ~1500M at nationals with just one shoe/spike and still went sub-20. So, there may be some more upside there than some are accounting for. And, according to the UA site, the 15:58 at Chili Pepper was the third fastest 5K by anyone in the SEC over the last 14 years, and faster than Dom Scott and Karissa Schweitzer (sp?) ran on that particular course. But, that’s still just 5K. Some other prominent names haven’t run yet so they remain wildcards.
Assuming they’re healthy, I expect strong showings from Mitchell and Frentheway.
Top group after KT in no particular order — Frentheway, Kemboi, Mitchell, Brown, Stearns, Hertenstein, Roarke, Bush, VanCamp.
Re: VanCamp — as Harter pointed out last November, she ran the last ~1500M at nationals with just one shoe/spike and still went sub-20. So, there may be some more upside there than some are accounting for. And, according to the UA site, the 15:58 at Chili Pepper was the third fastest 5K by anyone in the SEC over the last 14 years, and faster than Dom Scott and Karissa Schweitzer (sp?) ran on that particular course. But, that’s still just 5K. Some other prominent names haven’t run yet so they remain wildcards.
Assuming they’re healthy, I expect strong showings from Mitchell and Frentheway.
I totally forgot that Van-Camp was the 1-shoed soldier! *high-five*…. Agreed, another great example that this woman really should be ranked higher than she is.
15:14 track 5k, 15:50 XC 5k this year. 20:08 @ Nutty in 2021. 4:06 1500m speed. Again, I predict 19:17 for her this weekend if conditions are right.
2 Samantha Bush NC State JR
15:45 track 5k, 16:11 XC 5k this year. 20:27 @ Nutty in 2021. 8:54 track 3k. 4:13 1500m speed.
3 Everlyn Kemboi Utah Valley SR
Not known for fast track running, she can run on the grass and her 2022 season is going phenomenally well. 3rd @ the Jamboree against 2 arguably top-5 national contenders and then backing that up with a victory @ Paul Short in 19:33 (course short? maybe, but she still won). She won’t win in a sprint finish, but she’ll race tough at the front.
4 Isabel Van-Camp Arkansas JR
I agree with FastTuohy. She’s just that good… 15:35 track 5k, 15:58 XC 5k, 19:54 XC 6k, 4:16 1500 speed
5 Emily Covert Colorado SO
15:35 track 5k, 19:51 XC 6k (I think she had a bad day @ Cowboy Jamboree as she was up with the leaders and fell way back, but that was several weeks ago), 9:04 track 3k speed.
6 Gracelyn Larkin New Mexico JR
15:29 track 5k, 19:41 XC 6k (at Altitude in Albuquerque a year ago).
7 Sydney Seymour NC State SR
15:34 track 5k, 19:46 XC 6k. 6th @ Joe Piane w/ Alabama’s two big guns ahead of her, and Oregon’s Kaylee Mitchell.
8 Emily Venters Utah SR
15:47 track 5k w/ a 33:07 track 10k. She’s fast AND strong.
9 Elise Stearns Northern Arizona SO
15:55 track 5k, 5th @ Cowboy Jamboree against Roe, Cook, and Kemboi.
10 Marlee Starliper NC State FR
From an injured not-ran for 2 seasons to BOOM a 15:36 track 5k, 2nd @ Adidas XC Challenge, and 12th @ Joe Piane (I think she’s just lacking a touch of fitness still as she was UP there with the leaders and then dropped in the last 1k). She’s continuing to improve and will be top-10 this weekend.
Very useful breakdown. Venters and Stearns ahead of Covert and Seymour for me. I think you nailed the top four--unless Larkin surprises us all. Is V-C the best XC runner in the SEC not attending Alabama? Right now, I have her in the SEC chase pack with Bockrath, Herman and Valby.
Will Tuohy attempt a sub-19:30 or focus on "pulling" Bush to 2nd? Bush may not need the help, but it wouldn't hurt.
15:14 track 5k, 15:50 XC 5k this year. 20:08 @ Nutty in 2021. 4:06 1500m speed. Again, I predict 19:17 for her this weekend if conditions are right.
2 Samantha Bush NC State JR
15:45 track 5k, 16:11 XC 5k this year. 20:27 @ Nutty in 2021. 8:54 track 3k. 4:13 1500m speed.
3 Everlyn Kemboi Utah Valley SR
Not known for fast track running, she can run on the grass and her 2022 season is going phenomenally well. 3rd @ the Jamboree against 2 arguably top-5 national contenders and then backing that up with a victory @ Paul Short in 19:33 (course short? maybe, but she still won). She won’t win in a sprint finish, but she’ll race tough at the front.
4 Isabel Van-Camp Arkansas JR
I agree with FastTuohy. She’s just that good… 15:35 track 5k, 15:58 XC 5k, 19:54 XC 6k, 4:16 1500 speed
5 Emily Covert Colorado SO
15:35 track 5k, 19:51 XC 6k (I think she had a bad day @ Cowboy Jamboree as she was up with the leaders and fell way back, but that was several weeks ago), 9:04 track 3k speed.
6 Gracelyn Larkin New Mexico JR
15:29 track 5k, 19:41 XC 6k (at Altitude in Albuquerque a year ago).
7 Sydney Seymour NC State SR
15:34 track 5k, 19:46 XC 6k. 6th @ Joe Piane w/ Alabama’s two big guns ahead of her, and Oregon’s Kaylee Mitchell.
8 Emily Venters Utah SR
15:47 track 5k w/ a 33:07 track 10k. She’s fast AND strong.
9 Elise Stearns Northern Arizona SO
15:55 track 5k, 5th @ Cowboy Jamboree against Roe, Cook, and Kemboi.
10 Marlee Starliper NC State FR
From an injured not-ran for 2 seasons to BOOM a 15:36 track 5k, 2nd @ Adidas XC Challenge, and 12th @ Joe Piane (I think she’s just lacking a touch of fitness still as she was UP there with the leaders and then dropped in the last 1k). She’s continuing to improve and will be top-10 this weekend.
Good info. But one small correction, which helps your argument. Sam Bush's PR in 5k on track is 15:35.
Very useful breakdown. Venters and Stearns ahead of Covert and Seymour for me. I think you nailed the top four--unless Larkin surprises us all. Is V-C the best XC runner in the SEC not attending Alabama? Right now, I have her in the SEC chase pack with Bockrath, Herman and Valby. Will Tuohy attempt a sub-19:30 or focus on "pulling" Bush to 2nd? Bush may not need the help, but it wouldn't hurt.
Thank you!
Van-Camp is definitely fast and a contender, I agree. I posted a quote from a recent interview she had. She’s motivated to RACE right now.
Not sure if you read back on the other posts, but I’m predicting Tuohy breaks the course record, 19:17 for the win. Her going fast will pull the entire team along to incredibly fast times. It’s fast, but certainly possible. 3:12/km essentially.
Right now the weather is showing perfect temperatures, cloudy, with a very low chance of rain. I’m getting even MORE excited for tomorrow’s race!
LACCTiC rated it at 15:34 and there only 4 in NCAA with any race rated sub 15:30
actually I misread how the data is portrayed - my error. I count 7 with ratings sub 15:30 - mostly from last outdoor season. I think only Tuohy (15:20), Cook (15:31), and Chelangat (15:32) have been rated faster than 15:34 so far this XC season.
15:14 track 5k, 15:50 XC 5k this year. 20:08 @ Nutty in 2021. 4:06 1500m speed. Again, I predict 19:17 for her this weekend if conditions are right.
2 Samantha Bush NC State JR
15:45 track 5k, 16:11 XC 5k this year. 20:27 @ Nutty in 2021. 8:54 track 3k. 4:13 1500m speed.
3 Everlyn Kemboi Utah Valley SR
Not known for fast track running, she can run on the grass and her 2022 season is going phenomenally well. 3rd @ the Jamboree against 2 arguably top-5 national contenders and then backing that up with a victory @ Paul Short in 19:33 (course short? maybe, but she still won). She won’t win in a sprint finish, but she’ll race tough at the front.
4 Isabel Van-Camp Arkansas JR
I agree with FastTuohy. She’s just that good… 15:35 track 5k, 15:58 XC 5k, 19:54 XC 6k, 4:16 1500 speed
5 Emily Covert Colorado SO
15:35 track 5k, 19:51 XC 6k (I think she had a bad day @ Cowboy Jamboree as she was up with the leaders and fell way back, but that was several weeks ago), 9:04 track 3k speed.
6 Gracelyn Larkin New Mexico JR
15:29 track 5k, 19:41 XC 6k (at Altitude in Albuquerque a year ago).
7 Sydney Seymour NC State SR
15:34 track 5k, 19:46 XC 6k. 6th @ Joe Piane w/ Alabama’s two big guns ahead of her, and Oregon’s Kaylee Mitchell.
8 Emily Venters Utah SR
15:47 track 5k w/ a 33:07 track 10k. She’s fast AND strong.
9 Elise Stearns Northern Arizona SO
15:55 track 5k, 5th @ Cowboy Jamboree against Roe, Cook, and Kemboi.
10 Marlee Starliper NC State FR
From an injured not-ran for 2 seasons to BOOM a 15:36 track 5k, 2nd @ Adidas XC Challenge, and 12th @ Joe Piane (I think she’s just lacking a touch of fitness still as she was UP there with the leaders and then dropped in the last 1k). She’s continuing to improve and will be top-10 this weekend.
Good info. But one small correction, which helps your argument. Sam Bush's PR in 5k on track is 15:35.
Thanks! Good catch, I believe that’s a typo on my part. (It’s funny how many times I’ll re-read what I’m posting before I click “Post Reply” and inevitably something always is still incorrect.
LACCTiC rated it at 15:34 and there only 4 in NCAA with any race rated sub 15:30
actually I misread how the data is portrayed - my error. I count 7 with ratings sub 15:30 - mostly from last outdoor season. I think only Tuohy (15:20), Cook (15:31), and Chelangat (15:32) have been rated faster than 15:34 so far this XC season.
To whom were you referring with the LACCTiC rating? Van Camp’s Chili Pepper race?