No it is not hard to be wrong about predicting something that hasn't happened. 10 million people bet on the superbowl before it happened. 5 million are correct and 5 million are incorrect. Now you can't even grasp the possibility that your predictions could be incorrect when you are in the minority.
Armstronglivs wrote:
Aouita 84 wrote:
Thank you!
Is that OBVIOUS enough for you Armstrongisdead?
Your ignorance of the issues is excused because you have obviously come late to the thread and followed none of the discussion.
"Ignorance of the issues"?
Dude!!! You're 70+ posts in on this subject and you've added NOTHING of substance from your first post to your last. You're like a dog chasing his tail. What's most comical is your continued reference to Jim Ryun and other athletes 40+ years ago and trying to compare them to today's runners. You're a broken record going on and on and on.
Let me help you out, Mu is a special talent and has a really good chance at breaking the 800m WR within a few years...PERIOD! If you had ANY running experience/knowledge at all (not from reading books or being a hobby jogger), you'd understand that her potential is sky high, by looking at her running mechanics combined with natural speed (400m) she's well equipped to challenge the WR. Also, her willingness to move up in distance (1500/Mile) shows that she not adverse to challenging herself at longer distances while a the same time developing the speed endurance needed to run a fast 800m.
Chew on that for a while...I know you will.
"Go Run One"
OK so the majority of you think Athing Mu can break the world record at 800m. The odds are she will NOT. She is very talented but the odds of any major talent breaking the world record are fairly small. Of course she might break the world record. None of us knows. She is not close at this time. She is young. It will take several years to know who is correct. May we all enjoy seeing what happens as again, none of us knows.
The odds are that she will. You don't seem to understand odds. Vegas establishes odds for many sports but not athletics so it is essentially what the majority determines. It is clear that the majority of posters are predicting it and the minority of posters are predicting against it. Therefore, the odds are that she will break it. Most of us will be happy to place a monetary bet with you if you are giving odds. Are you giving 3 to 1? 2 to 1? You could earn some real money.
Bower Woman wrote:
The odds are that she will. You don't seem to understand odds. Vegas establishes odds for many sports but not athletics so it is essentially what the majority determines. It is clear that the majority of posters are predicting it and the minority of posters are predicting against it. Therefore, the odds are that she will break it. Most of us will be happy to place a monetary bet with you if you are giving odds. Are you giving 3 to 1? 2 to 1? You could earn some real money.
No offense but your post is nonsense. The majority are often wrong. You really have not learned to think critically.
gernuu wrote:
Bower Woman wrote:
The odds are that she will. You don't seem to understand odds. Vegas establishes odds for many sports but not athletics so it is essentially what the majority determines. It is clear that the majority of posters are predicting it and the minority of posters are predicting against it. Therefore, the odds are that she will break it. Most of us will be happy to place a monetary bet with you if you are giving odds. Are you giving 3 to 1? 2 to 1? You could earn some real money.
No offense but your post is nonsense. The majority are often wrong. You really have not learned to think critically.
Well isn't your post the same? Are the majority wrong the majority of the time?
The majority is correct the majority of the time. But that was not the point. The point was that you claimed the odds were that she will not break the record. The odds are that she will break the record. You have seen that via this thread. Please provide the odds that you have established. I will even be willing to take 1/1 odds but I know you won't because you are just trying to be objectionable and you are not confident in your prediction.
I am interacting with mental midgets. I most be crazy for doing so.
Bower Woman wrote:
The majority is correct the majority of the time. But that was not the point. The point was that you claimed the odds were that she will not break the record. The odds are that she will break the record. You have seen that via this thread. Please provide the odds that you have established. I will even be willing to take 1/1 odds but I know you won't because you are just trying to be objectionable and you are not confident in your prediction.
I have NOT seen that the odds are that she will break the world record via this thread. This thread has ZERO bearing on whether she will break the record...so it doesn’t alter the odds at all. Please tell me you can grasp this.
You haven't seen it because you refuse to consider the data and the opinions that are provided. When Vegas establishes 2-1 odds that the Packers will beat the Bears, they have not altered the outcome but they have established the odds whether you like the odds or not. The majority of people established the odds that Mu will break the record. They didn't alter the future but they are predicting that she will.
The first definition:
the ratio between the amounts staked by the parties to a bet, based on the expected probability either way.
"the bookies are offering odds of 8-1"
Odds: the chances or likelihood of something happening or being the case. This is how I utilize the word. The other definition is a gambling term which has no relevance here.
gernuu wrote:
I am interacting with mental midgets. I most be crazy for doing so.
Ah man, a mental midget? I'd like to think I contribute some decent material to the boards.
You're a reasonable poster too but I think I have to disagree here,
jabouko wrote:
gernuu wrote:
I am interacting with mental midgets. I most be crazy for doing so.
Ah man, a mental midget? I'd like to think I contribute some decent material to the boards.
You're a reasonable poster too but I think I have to disagree here,
OK I was harsh in my reply BUT I have acknowledged that NONE of us know whether she will break the world record and then someone says the odds are she will based upon this thread. That of course is nonsense. Again she might. I cannot prove you are wrong about this prediction. However, the majority predicting she will is not relevant. Time will tell. This thread will not tell.
Looking at Nadezhda Olizarenko may prove instructive. In the month of July 1980 she ran 50.96, 1:53.43 and 3:56.8. So when you look at Athing Mu she is going to need to have superior speed, which she appears to have, and likely endurance to run maybe close to 4:02. This may be possible. We shall see.
Mu does not have “a very good chance” to break the WR—she has “a chance”. And still slim, at that.
Bolt had “a very good chance” of breaking the 100m WR after he tied it at 9.72 in NYC. Mu is nowhere near, at the moment.
There is a lot of real estate between 1:57 and 1:53. At 1:55 her chances would improve: at 1:54 it would be better but still not probable; sub-1:54 we can talk about a good shot.
Mu is a talent, but that record does not suck. We have seen talents before, maybe at other distances—Perec, etc—and they haven’t come close to those roid records.
Otoh you have someone like Pharmelita, who probably equaled one. Mu’s chances at the moment are interesting to think about only because they are non-zero, which is more than be said for anyone else...and maybe a big reason for that non-zero is Rudisha.
What were Rudisha’s times like at a similar stage in his development?
And remember, Rudisha flourished under the Diack administration, like Dolt, etc. Hopefully those days are over, meaning a harder path for Mu.
gernuu wrote:
Looking at Nadezhda Olizarenko may prove instructive. In the month of July 1980 she ran 50.96, 1:53.43 and 3:56.8. So when you look at Athing Mu she is going to need to have superior speed, which she appears to have, and likely endurance to run maybe close to 4:02. This may be possible. We shall see.
You're right, at the end of the day we just have to wait and see.
I think Mu will challenge 4:05 by the next Olympic year. Half of being a track fan is speculating over development and being excited for future talents. I think a major source of the disagreements on this thread don't come from her current ability and performances to date, but rather whether we are viewing them as optimistic (signaling she could grow) or pessimistic (indicating where her upper limits may be).
Ultimately, I try to approach this in a positive light, even though I know sometimes young talent doesn't make it far. By being reasonable with expectations but also staying optimistic, we can have much better discourse regarding these young stars. Keep it less toxic, more encouraging, and generally clean up the tone of this place.
People aren't disagreeing over what Mu can do, they're disagreeing about the lense with which to view her abilities.
my two cents
Bower Woman wrote:
No it is not hard to be wrong about predicting something that hasn't happened. 10 million people bet on the superbowl before it happened. 5 million are correct and 5 million are incorrect. Now you can't even grasp the possibility that your predictions could be incorrect when you are in the minority.
You have just constructed a noose for your own neck there, so to speak. Your predictions, too, could equally be incorrect. Reality - especially something that hasn't happened - is not decided by popular vote. The Superbowl will happen; Mu running a world record is pure conjecture, not a scheduled event.
Aouita 84 wrote:
Armstronglivs wrote:
Your ignorance of the issues is excused because you have obviously come late to the thread and followed none of the discussion.
"Ignorance of the issues"?
Dude!!! You're 70+ posts in on this subject and you've added NOTHING of substance from your first post to your last. You're like a dog chasing his tail. What's most comical is your continued reference to Jim Ryun and other athletes 40+ years ago and trying to compare them to today's runners. You're a broken record going on and on and on.
Let me help you out, Mu is a special talent and has a really good chance at breaking the 800m WR within a few years...PERIOD! If you had ANY running experience/knowledge at all (not from reading books or being a hobby jogger), you'd understand that her potential is sky high, by looking at her running mechanics combined with natural speed (400m) she's well equipped to challenge the WR. Also, her willingness to move up in distance (1500/Mile) shows that she not adverse to challenging herself at longer distances while a the same time developing the speed endurance needed to run a fast 800m.
Chew on that for a while...I know you will.
"Go Run One"
A "really good chance"? That's a highly persuasive argument. A "really good chance" to break a record set by a doper nearly forty years ago and which no doper since has been able to surpass. Currently, she is nowhere near it. You are thus far a mere fantasist.
Ironically, it is another likely doper who is closer to it than Mu, and that was Genzebe Dibaba, who closed the 2015 world championship 1500 in 1.57.3 over the last two laps. You were saying about Mu?
She is Scheduled to run the 400 Saturday. https://flashresults.com/2021_Meets/Outdoor/05-01_AlumniMuster/003-1_start.htm