While one hopes that CL has a lot of upside development still, there is NO guaranty to that. Quincy Wilson (another prodigy) ran 44.2 two years ago and 44.1 last year. One hopes he will make a jump this year, but I also wouldn't surprised if he didn't. The records lists (more on the girls side) are filled with athletes who peaked (never ran faster, even while competing for a few more years) at U18. Perhaps they just had poor coaching that prevented their continued development, who knows.
Now CL is already at a very high level (World champion), better than QW relatively, although he ran a 45.37 recently (almost losing to another HSer) where the World meet was won over half a second faster. Other than DL meets, there are not any Championship meets for CL to get into this summer (the world U20 meet would not be a real test, even if he does it), so we will have to wait until next year. If he gets consistent at that 1.42 level (1.44 indoors seemed almost comfortable), then ones hopes that he can make the jump to sub-1.41. Hopefully his coach will work on both his speed development and endurance as well.
I can see a relationship of 400m going to 1k as follows: 400 - 45.0 (+3sec) 600 - 1.12 (48) +2.5sec 800 - 1.41 (50.5sec) +2.5sec 1000 - 2.12.5 (53sec) that is 1.46 800m plus another 200m.
Perhaps in his 20's he can see what his 1500/Mile brings. But I wouldn't seek that out unless he starts stagnating at 800m. As to sub-1.40, much like Keely Hodgkinson, it may come down to how much speed does he need to get out in 49 and endurance to also come back in 50 (=1.39).
While one hopes that CL has a lot of upside development still, there is NO guaranty to that. Quincy Wilson (another prodigy) ran 44.2 two years ago and 44.1 last year. One hopes he will make a jump this year, but I also wouldn't surprised if he didn't. The records lists (more on the girls side) are filled with athletes who peaked (never ran faster, even while competing for a few more years) at U18. Perhaps they just had poor coaching that prevented their continued development, who knows.
Now CL is already at a very high level (World champion), better than QW relatively, although he ran a 45.37 recently (almost losing to another HSer) where the World meet was won over half a second faster. Other than DL meets, there are not any Championship meets for CL to get into this summer (the world U20 meet would not be a real test, even if he does it), so we will have to wait until next year. If he gets consistent at that 1.42 level (1.44 indoors seemed almost comfortable), then ones hopes that he can make the jump to sub-1.41. Hopefully his coach will work on both his speed development and endurance as well.
I can see a relationship of 400m going to 1k as follows: 400 - 45.0 (+3sec) 600 - 1.12 (48) +2.5sec 800 - 1.41 (50.5sec) +2.5sec 1000 - 2.12.5 (53sec) that is 1.46 800m plus another 200m.
Perhaps in his 20's he can see what his 1500/Mile brings. But I wouldn't seek that out unless he starts stagnating at 800m. As to sub-1.40, much like Keely Hodgkinson, it may come down to how much speed does he need to get out in 49 and endurance to also come back in 50 (=1.39).
Good post. While I don’t personally think he’s there currently, I will go on record here predicting CL will both break 45 and the current 800 WR, if it stays where it is the next few years and he stays healthy. Now, sub-44 and sub-1:40? Harder to see that. Maybe the latter. But that 1:40 barrier might be the hardest and most revered in all of track. So I’m going to go with no and hope I’m wrong.
Oh, and he will never be a major factor over 1500. That’s not his wheelhouse. He can run fast, but not world championship fast.
While one hopes that CL has a lot of upside development still, there is NO guaranty to that. Quincy Wilson (another prodigy) ran 44.2 two years ago and 44.1 last year. One hopes he will make a jump this year, but I also wouldn't surprised if he didn't. The records lists (more on the girls side) are filled with athletes who peaked (never ran faster, even while competing for a few more years) at U18. Perhaps they just had poor coaching that prevented their continued development, who knows.
Now CL is already at a very high level (World champion), better than QW relatively, although he ran a 45.37 recently (almost losing to another HSer) where the World meet was won over half a second faster. Other than DL meets, there are not any Championship meets for CL to get into this summer (the world U20 meet would not be a real test, even if he does it), so we will have to wait until next year. If he gets consistent at that 1.42 level (1.44 indoors seemed almost comfortable), then ones hopes that he can make the jump to sub-1.41. Hopefully his coach will work on both his speed development and endurance as well.
I can see a relationship of 400m going to 1k as follows: 400 - 45.0 (+3sec) 600 - 1.12 (48) +2.5sec 800 - 1.41 (50.5sec) +2.5sec 1000 - 2.12.5 (53sec) that is 1.46 800m plus another 200m.
Perhaps in his 20's he can see what his 1500/Mile brings. But I wouldn't seek that out unless he starts stagnating at 800m. As to sub-1.40, much like Keely Hodgkinson, it may come down to how much speed does he need to get out in 49 and endurance to also come back in 50 (=1.39).
Good post. While I don’t personally think he’s there currently, I will go on record here predicting CL will both break 45 and the current 800 WR, if it stays where it is the next few years and he stays healthy. Now, sub-44 and sub-1:40? Harder to see that. Maybe the latter. But that 1:40 barrier might be the hardest and most revered in all of track. So I’m going to go with no and hope I’m wrong.
Oh, and he will never be a major factor over 1500. That’s not his wheelhouse. He can run fast, but not world championship fast.
I think he’ll be more of a factor in the 1500m than the 400m. 44.9 is a great time for an 800m runner.
I don’t see any world where he can’t run faster than Hoey at all distances 100-1500m.
The record is his to take. Here is crazy stat / observation:
In the Olympics, Arop ran 50.9 / 50.3. The 50.3 was run entirely in lane 2. Probably at least as good as Rudisha’s run.
How do you know that Hoey does way more specific work during the indoor season? How do the workouts differ? Did he not do specific work in preparation the USATF championships last year?
3/5K guys are not going to run the fastest 1500m times. None of top three at Paris, Hocker, Kerr and Nuguse, are 800/1500m runners. A fast 1500m runner is going to be good in either the 800m or 1500m.
The fastest times I've the 1500/mile have not been run by 800/1500 runners. El G, Lagat and Ngeny didn't fall into that group.
You have no evidence for this. He trains speed and was running 46.3 open, and 45 relay splits when he was running 1:47 and up. His best event is the 800, and he has been training up his aerobic side but his coach even mentioned a major improvement in his speed workouts of late. So, really you don't have to be pigeonholing him just because it doesn't fit your worldview.
I'm not pigeon-holing him; he has so far not run faster than 22.1 for the 200. If he had his coach would have told us, as he has told us about his flying start performance. There is nothing so far that indicates his top speed is significantly faster. But let us say it might be possible that he could clock 21.5-21.7FAT, which is still a significant improvement; that is still nowhere near Juantorena speed of 20.7, which is what it would take to run 44-low for the 400. Any claim that he could get near that is fantasizing or pr - and that includes his coach, because if CL had that potential there would be recorded times showing it.
His coach did tell us but you discredited him. Can’t have it both ways. His coach didn’t tell us about the flying start, that was just one workout they recorded.
I'm not pigeon-holing him; he has so far not run faster than 22.1 for the 200. If he had his coach would have told us, as he has told us about his flying start performance. There is nothing so far that indicates his top speed is significantly faster. But let us say it might be possible that he could clock 21.5-21.7FAT, which is still a significant improvement; that is still nowhere near Juantorena speed of 20.7, which is what it would take to run 44-low for the 400. Any claim that he could get near that is fantasizing or pr - and that includes his coach, because if CL had that potential there would be recorded times showing it.
His coach did tell us but you discredited him. Can’t have it both ways. His coach didn’t tell us about the flying start, that was just one workout they recorded.
His coach hasn't told us that Lutkenhaus has run any times faster than his prs.
This is a thread of predictions - including by his coach. One thing that can be observed about predictions - especially here - is that they frequently overshoot the mark. You guys are setting yourselves up to be disappointed, whereas I may be pleasantly surprised.
At the level CL is already running a 2 second improvement over 400 is a huge jump. He can't be compared to most other 17 year olds. He has matured far earlier. He's not going to take 5 seconds off his 800 time, as many 17 year olds would.
If he is capable of 21-mid for the 200 - which is possible - he could possibly dip below 46 for the 400. That would still be Coe speed (he ran 45x in a relay). I think he is an 800 specialist whose skills are based on strength-endurance. The 800 and the 1500 have become very different events so it is unlikely he could successfully double at both. That is a rarity now.
Coe ran 46.87 as his lifetime PB at age 22 nine days after running around Lutkenhaus’ PB with a 1:42.3. He ran 3:32.1 that year.
Lutkenhaus hasn’t run a 400 since his recent jump. Before it was he was already a half-second better than Coe. He also was 16 not 22. So not only does he already have Coe speed it’s likely he has better than Coe speed. Why Coe is your comp at all I don’t get
Coe was still more on the endurance side than Cooper, although less so than Ovett. He did win a major 4 mile road race in Ireland, breaking a course record set by Brendan Foster, and beating Mike Mcleod (rightfully an Olympic 10000m winner, and twice winner of the Golden Spikes 10000m), Eamon Coghlan (European 5000m Champion) and Charlie Spedding (Olympic 10000m finalist; third Olympic Marathon).
WIth all due respect, I wouldn't expect Cooper to show that level of endurance, or even try too.
Coe was very quick in an era where the 800m had swung back away from the 400m/800m type - Fiasconaro, Juantorena - back towards the 800m/1500m type.
Now I think we're tilting back to 400/800m types, or 800m specialists who might be better at 400m than 1500m, and I think that's where Cooper fits more closely that he fits Coe (whose first school age national championship came at 3000m).
Snell was still more of an endurance runner that Cooper. He won the NZ x-country championships one year; ran with the leaders for 20 miles in the same year he set the 800m and mile world-records; and was an Olympic 1500m Champion.
His coach did tell us but you discredited him. Can’t have it both ways. His coach didn’t tell us about the flying start, that was just one workout they recorded.
His coach hasn't told us that Lutkenhaus has run any times faster than his prs.
This is a thread of predictions - including by his coach. One thing that can be observed about predictions - especially here - is that they frequently overshoot the mark. You guys are setting yourselves up to be disappointed, whereas I may be pleasantly surprised.
His coach said he was crushing and “hunting” speed work. Running them faster. He doesn’t need to say he PRed in a workout. He’s running his speed work much faster than when split 45.3r.
It’s not about us being disappointed - it’s about you being so stubborn in saying “he can’t” do things. You don’t know what he can / can’t do but you act like you orchestrated his genetics.
Snell was still more of an endurance runner that Cooper. He won the NZ x-country championships one year; ran with the leaders for 20 miles in the same year he set the 800m and mile world-records; and was an Olympic 1500m Champion.
You're right, but as an 800 runner Snell was a strength rather than speed type. He generally considered he was the "slowest" in his Olympic finals. But he was definitely the strongest. Lutkenhaus appears similar in that regard. As controversial as it appears here, he isn't and won't be the fastest 200 or 400 guy in any championship 800 final. But it doesn't matter if he's the strongest with the most endurance.
While one hopes that CL has a lot of upside development still, there is NO guaranty to that. Quincy Wilson (another prodigy) ran 44.2 two years ago and 44.1 last year. One hopes he will make a jump this year, but I also wouldn't surprised if he didn't. The records lists (more on the girls side) are filled with athletes who peaked (never ran faster, even while competing for a few more years) at U18. Perhaps they just had poor coaching that prevented their continued development, who knows.
Now CL is already at a very high level (World champion), better than QW relatively, although he ran a 45.37 recently (almost losing to another HSer) where the World meet was won over half a second faster. Other than DL meets, there are not any Championship meets for CL to get into this summer (the world U20 meet would not be a real test, even if he does it), so we will have to wait until next year. If he gets consistent at that 1.42 level (1.44 indoors seemed almost comfortable), then ones hopes that he can make the jump to sub-1.41. Hopefully his coach will work on both his speed development and endurance as well.
I can see a relationship of 400m going to 1k as follows: 400 - 45.0 (+3sec) 600 - 1.12 (48) +2.5sec 800 - 1.41 (50.5sec) +2.5sec 1000 - 2.12.5 (53sec) that is 1.46 800m plus another 200m.
Perhaps in his 20's he can see what his 1500/Mile brings. But I wouldn't seek that out unless he starts stagnating at 800m. As to sub-1.40, much like Keely Hodgkinson, it may come down to how much speed does he need to get out in 49 and endurance to also come back in 50 (=1.39).
For a 16-year old that ran 1:42, any training he’s doing is perfection. If he stagnates at 1:41, he’ll never leave the 800m.
No, we do not have to wait until next year. People run very fast at DL meets it will be very exciting to see what he can do. He’ll also be competing against the best 800m runners in the world in those races.
As has been mentioned before, he’s not going to be running 1:39. It’s equivalent to running 3:22, and human beings, including Lutkenhaus, are not capable of running those times.
His coach hasn't told us that Lutkenhaus has run any times faster than his prs.
This is a thread of predictions - including by his coach. One thing that can be observed about predictions - especially here - is that they frequently overshoot the mark. You guys are setting yourselves up to be disappointed, whereas I may be pleasantly surprised.
His coach said he was crushing and “hunting” speed work. Running them faster. He doesn’t need to say he PRed in a workout. He’s running his speed work much faster than when split 45.3r.
It’s not about us being disappointed - it’s about you being so stubborn in saying “he can’t” do things. You don’t know what he can / can’t do but you act like you orchestrated his genetics.
So what times do you attribute to "hunting and crushing speed work"? Does he now have a faster 200 pr? Or 400?
His coach did tell us but you discredited him. Can’t have it both ways. His coach didn’t tell us about the flying start, that was just one workout they recorded.
His coach hasn't told us that Lutkenhaus has run any times faster than his prs.
This is a thread of predictions - including by his coach. One thing that can be observed about predictions - especially here - is that they frequently overshoot the mark. You guys are setting yourselves up to be disappointed, whereas I may be pleasantly surprised.
I don’t know man…being optimistic about a young person’s potential isn’t really “setting yourself up to be disappointed”.
Sure you’re probably right in regards to some people, but I think reasonable people aren’t putting all their eggs in the basket of “Cooper needs to run 44 and 3:29 in his next 400/1500 attempts!!!”
Race results don’t always paint a perfect picture of fitness. There are so many variables…weather, race conditions/tactics, how the body is feeling on the day.
He could go out and run slower than his PRs and still be in better shape and be capable or running much faster.
As any coach does, I’m sure his coach tracks his times/average times that he hits for certain interval distances during his workouts. In most cases that results in faster applicable race times. Doesn’t matter that he’s not getting FAT sprint times out of blocks in practice, as long as you generally try to compare apples to apples for the way that you gather practice times/data.
It seems more like you’re just worried about being wrong and guarding yourself against that.