78 runners ran Nuttycombe today that ran Gans last month and their time averaged 37 seconds slower. Ignoring some obvious blowups put the average at 31. Consistent with last year about 30 seconds slower at Wisconsin. That would put NC St at 19:00, 19:05, 19:20, 19:27, 19:40. Today BYU was 18:42, 19:09, 19:41, 1945, 19:46. Presumably Hutchins would be down around 19:00-19:10. That would still put NC St with 5 before BYU 4th. Somewhat quick and simplistic - but the course to course time is pretty consistent and consistent with comments made by coaches. I am sure there will be downvotes, but provide data to contradict this. but as noted the dropoff to NC St 6 today was large.
Doesn't work that way in XC. Nice try though.
Both are clearly top tier contenders. Only way to know how they stack up is race head to head.
Well what is your method for assessing where they ahead of the actual competition? Gut feel?
They were the 4th at 2k (182) with their top 5 all in the top 60. But by 4k, they were just 12th (337) before finishing 18th with 418 and only two runners in the top 100..
Baloga didn't race and neither did McTighe who was their top at Gans
MattHatter tell us the status of Engel, Baloga and McTighe. Coenfield mentioned being without McTighe but did not indicate Baloga and Addie Engel would run this season.
US runners (probably cheating) getting to compete against Kenyans (definitely cheating), seems like this is a great outcome for people who want the US to win more medals at worlds.
If I had to place a bet, I would bet on Doris for the win.
That's not a crazy bet. Lemngole certainly could've matched Hedengren's pace and finish at GC today. Napoleon demonstrated the strength a 9:10 steepler can generate on a XC course. Underestimating a sub-9 athlete with proven steel and poise on the biggest Intl stage and through an array of NCAA championships is foolish.
Diljeet Taylor is an exceptional coach, and her impact at BYU is undeniable. Take Taylor Lovell as an example. When she signed with BYU, I was shocked. As an unheralded high school athlete, she only claimed a state title in her final high school race. In a relatively weak state for girls' distance running, she placed 7th at Arizona XC State her senior year and 48th at Woodbridge—solid, but not standout.
Yet, at Pre-Nationals, Lovell was BYU’s #7 runner—a position that would have made her the #1 or #2 runner on nearly every other team. She’s also an All-American in the steeplechase. This is no fluke; it’s a testament to BYU’s remarkable athlete development under Taylor’s guidance. The program doesn’t just rely on blue-chip recruits—it transforms talent into elite performers, year after year.
I get it. Ya'll hate her because she's loud. But she's one of the only coaches staying competitive with American athletes.
You kind of miss the point on recruiting at BYU. Taylor Lovell is Mormon and her Dad went to BYU. BYU was her top choice for college, as long as the team would take her.
Well the team took her and she developed real nicely.
It's not, however, like this is some nobody that Coach Taylor searched through the weeds to find.
She was Arizona State champ at 3200, and runner up at 1600....and she banged on the front door and asked "can I come to BYU please?".
So amazing coaching and development, but BYU recruits itself. Riley Chamberlain, Mormon from California. Alder family, Mormons who lived in North Carolina. (Now back in Utah)
BYU fortunate right now that the Mormon church happens to be home to tremendous distance running talent.
Well what is your method for assessing where they ahead of the actual competition? Gut feel?
Let’s fire up LACCTIC! Bijan? You out there? 🤓
still no PreNats results in TFRRS but LAACTiC has evaluated the Nuttycombe and shows for yesterday Hartman 15:17, Napoleon 15:20, Michalak 15:33, Gapes 15:38, Englehardt 15:49.
For reference, for BYU their athlete bests are Hutchins 15:19, Chamberlain 15:22, Alder 15:47 Rohatinsky 15:53. I am sure Hedengren warrants a best around 15:00 (Hartman's best is 14:50 for a 10,000) so as has been stated the top 3 for the 2 squads at their best seem pretty close but at least from yesterday their is a difference at 4. But of course these are the best ratings for each runner and the odds of all performing at their best on the same day are low.
Another interesting point, at Nationals last year both Michalak and Napoleon faded over the final 2K (and Henes acknowledged in her post race LRC interview). Well revenge has been had and they both ran 1 minute faster yesterday with the 2nd and 8th fastest final 2Ks in the field.
This why I made so much noise about no track results from 2025 being in LAACTiC as both (and others in NCAA) had made a lot of progress since XC last year that was not being reflected in the ratings.
I remain curious as to what the PAACTiC assessments for the PreNats race will be.
Of course I’m referring to your previous #2; that spot might now belong to Napoleon.
and #5 seems to be trending toward Engelhardt. But especially Putman, the trend since the start of the season has been in the wrong direction. Gapes may just have been one bad day - to be seen
still no PreNats results in TFRRS but LAACTiC has evaluated the Nuttycombe and shows for yesterday Hartman 15:17, Napoleon 15:20, Michalak 15:33, Gapes 15:38, Englehardt 15:49.
A 15:38 for a 19:57, and a 15:49 for a 20:11 seem a wee bit generous, no?
still no PreNats results in TFRRS but LAACTiC has evaluated the Nuttycombe and shows for yesterday Hartman 15:17, Napoleon 15:20, Michalak 15:33, Gapes 15:38, Englehardt 15:49.
A 15:38 for a 19:57, and a 15:49 for a 20:11 seem a wee bit generous, no?
For comparison, Time/TiC:
Nutty 2022…19:57/15:41, 20:11/15:52
Nutty 2024…19:57/15:55, 20:11/16:05
I just checked the 20:21 Nuttycombe, and those TiC’s coincidentally match this year’s TiC’s,
Nutty 2021…19:57/15:38, 20:11/15:49.
I wonder what the course conditions were that day?
A 15:38 for a 19:57, and a 15:49 for a 20:11 seem a wee bit generous, no?
For comparison, Time/TiC:
Nutty 2022…19:57/15:41, 20:11/15:52
Nutty 2024…19:57/15:55, 20:11/16:05
I just checked the 20:21 Nuttycombe, and those TiC’s coincidentally match this year’s TiC’s,
Nutty 2021…19:57/15:38, 20:11/15:49.
I wonder what the course conditions were that day?
“At the 2021 Nuttycombe Wisconsin Cross Country Invitational, the course was soft, soggy, and muddy following rainfall earlier in the week. Despite the wet ground, the weather on race day was mild and conducive to fast times.”
lol was Putman not the key a couple of weeks ago? As long as Gapes is healthy she will be fine. Hopefully for them that is the case.
I don’t want to call anyone out, but I had Putnam pegged as their solid #5 before today. Hartman ran this “firm course” 15secs slower than last year; Gapes was 26secs slower.
Except for their bright light in Napoleon, NC State closes out the regular season staggering and reeling on the ropes, while BYU is licking their chops ready to shock the post-season.
NC State appears like they could use that ‘band treatment’ that the Cougars got last week.
9 downvotes, so far, LRC?
I must have gotten dinged by both the Wolfpack fan, and BYU fan (for the reference to their ‘band treatments’.)
I have no idea, sometimes I am somewhat amused by what posts attract downvotes. But I would disagree that NC St is staggering other than the trend on the one runner I mentioned. But others trending in a good direction. Whatever the right Tic is, how many had Michalak or Engelhardt placing that high yesterday?