I feel the same way about Franklin that I do Rocky. They have some strong elements, but in a year as stacked as this one, top 5 is about the best they can do. It's a bummer too, because preseason they were most people's #3 and in the hunt for an NXN bid.
And the Franklin boys team is not in the championship race now. Only 2 individuals are in there
The teams are all over the place. Mountain View of Idaho makes it in, but Highland doesn't despite finishing just behind them at the state meet with placing that would be better in a meet like this. 16th place team from Firman makes it into the championship race, though.
Boise girls not in champ race, despite beating literally every NW school they have raced this year except for Rocky, Timberline, and Capital, and they even beat those schools multiple times this year. A bunch of teams from Washington are definitely weaker than Boise. Jackson (Wy) makes it in despite finishing 102 points behind them at Bob Firman.
The teams are all over the place. Mountain View of Idaho makes it in, but Highland doesn't despite finishing just behind them at the state meet with placing that would be better in a meet like this. 16th place team from Firman makes it into the championship race, though.
Boise girls not in champ race, despite beating literally every NW school they have raced this year except for Rocky, Timberline, and Capital, and they even beat those schools multiple times this year. A bunch of teams from Washington are definitely weaker than Boise. Jackson (Wy) makes it in despite finishing 102 points behind them at Bob Firman.
Boise is a huge surprise... Surely it's a decision made by the coach? I know that there are some local Idaho teams that have chosen to stay out of the elite races before.
Their girls have qualified for NXN before, and literally got 2nd at Firman. Sure, they blew up at the state meet, but is it really better to win the open varsity rather placing between 4th-8th in the elite race??
This post was edited 38 seconds after it was posted.
If Highland would've beaten that 16th place team at Firman, then they probably would have gotten in. They were in different races but would've still been behind them barely. I would've put them in and that's unfortunate.
I feel the same way about Franklin that I do Rocky. They have some strong elements, but in a year as stacked as this one, top 5 is about the best they can do. It's a bummer too, because preseason they were most people's #3 and in the hunt for an NXN bid.
And the Franklin boys team is not in the championship race now. Only 2 individuals are in there
People that know the sport knew Franklin had no chance at all at NXN this year let along a repeat 6A State Championship . They lost to much talent from last year. Lots of emotional responses from that group in previous posts earlier in the season.
I’m surprised Mnt Spokane did not make it into the championship race but a team like Mead did. Are you better off qualifying for your state meet or no? Arlington also didn’t make it in - they were missing their first and fifth place athlete at the state meet and now they’re penalized - even though they crushed Issaquah at their state meet qualifier
''Quick email to let you know your team will be reassigned to Open Invitational Section #1 as they did not meet the full slate of metrics we use to determine final placement into the Championship race.'' This appears to be new, or at least the first time meet director has stated use of 'metrics'.
Really 2-5 is a toss-up - it'll come down to who has the best fifth man on the day, giving that to Rocky. Mercer has a great 1-3 punch, Crater can make it if Tostenson is healthy - that can easily make up 20 points on my prediction so their 125-140.
Teams like Sehome could be in the mix but they lack a frontrunner which makes the difference in a race like this.
In my hypothetical I included more than just the top 22 teams so my overall points may be off
Really 2-5 is a toss-up - it'll come down to who has the best fifth man on the day, giving that to Rocky. Mercer has a great 1-3 punch, Crater can make it if Tostenson is healthy - that can easily make up 20 points on my prediction so their 125-140.
Teams like Sehome could be in the mix but they lack a frontrunner which makes the difference in a race like this.
In my hypothetical I included more than just the top 22 teams so my overall points may be off
No way that you have that many teams that close. The 5th place team won't be as little as 40 points behind 1st, especially considering they were 60 behind CDA in a much less deep race at Hole in the Wall.
CDA will beat up on everyone pretty bad at 1-3, especially if Tostenson is not fully healthy. Rocky very well might be 2nd, but they will be 50+ points behind CDA after 3 and they won't close the gap much at all at 4 and might lose ground on 5.
Im a Washington guy, I have no bias towards or against any Idaho or Oregon team, this is just what my numbers are showing me based off of how teams did at state.
Really 2-5 is a toss-up - it'll come down to who has the best fifth man on the day, giving that to Rocky. Mercer has a great 1-3 punch, Crater can make it if Tostenson is healthy - that can easily make up 20 points on my prediction so their 125-140.
Teams like Sehome could be in the mix but they lack a frontrunner which makes the difference in a race like this.
In my hypothetical I included more than just the top 22 teams so my overall points may be off
No way that you have that many teams that close. The 5th place team won't be as little as 40 points behind 1st, especially considering they were 60 behind CDA in a much less deep race at Hole in the Wall.
CDA will beat up on everyone pretty bad at 1-3, especially if Tostenson is not fully healthy. Rocky very well might be 2nd, but they will be 50+ points behind CDA after 3 and they won't close the gap much at all at 4 and might lose ground on 5.
5th will probably be in the low 200s point wise. Sharing the scores mostly to show how close I think 2-5 will be. It will be a dogfight for that 2nd spot. For CDA it really depends on where that 5th man finishes and who it'll be.
My overall scores were wrong when I did the Washington state predictions last week but the order was more or less the same not accounting for teams that were missing guys due to sickness
Probably would have been more accurate to say that Rocky will be around 30 points behind CDA, Jesuit will be 10-20 points back from that, Crater will be 5-10 points back from Jesuit, and Mercer Island 10-25 points back from Crater. Basically the same thing you said here but with out the overlap on the bottom edge of scores, which gives you more realistic scores of CDA around 90-100, Rocky around 125, Jesuit around 135-145, Crater around 150-160, and Mercer Island around 170-195.
I feel Mercer Island actually ran poorly at Hole in the Wall but did what they should've done at State. No guarantee they repeat it this weekend but I'd rather be running well this late than not. Mercer was also only 47pts behind CDA at Woodbridge (Crater beat them both) and that was with extra-large field of 36 teams. Mercer's #2 runner ran very poorly at that one also and ended up way behind their normal #3, so points could've been made up. I understand CDA has some injury issues too at 4-5 at that one also. It's gonna be tight and fun to see how it comes out. A poor performance by any of the top 5 runners from any team will sink their team's chances. 3rd place team should get a wildcard to NXN.
I feel Mercer Island actually ran poorly at Hole in the Wall but did what they should've done at State. No guarantee they repeat it this weekend but I'd rather be running well this late than not. Mercer was also only 47pts behind CDA at Woodbridge (Crater beat them both) and that was with extra-large field of 36 teams. Mercer's #2 runner ran very poorly at that one also and ended up way behind their normal #3, so points could've been made up. I understand CDA has some injury issues too at 4-5 at that one also. It's gonna be tight and fun to see how it comes out. A poor performance by any of the top 5 runners from any team will sink their team's chances. 3rd place team should get a wildcard to NXN.
Mercer island #2 and #3 essentially switched places that race. #3 ran his best race all season and #2 had a tough race. #4 also ran one of his best races at Woodbridge but now #5 is improving and running well now
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