OFFICIAL 2022 WOMENS Individual NCAA D1 XC Championships Predictions

TuohyFan · 2022-11-13T15:07:16-05:00

We’ve been predicting for months now on the [b]“Way Too Early”[/b] thread. 50 pages and 987 posts of knowledge, observations and thought sharing. [b]It’s been great![/b] Now The Big Dance is next weekend. The women have achieved all of the fitness they can at this point and are tapering and resting to be as fast as they can be this upcoming Saturday. So, who’ll win? My personal predictions have NOTHING to do with overall finishing times on any given course during this 2022 XC season. They’re based on who’s raced whom, and who won in head-to-head battles, and how that compares to other women in the NCAA. Not every woman has faced ALL of the competition during 2022. However, some women have raced enough of the various top guns in one race, and then in another race have faced some of the other top guns that by using them as a common reference competitor, predictions can be made. Through those various competitions and competitors, I came up with the following extremely solid predictions of the top-10 women:[b]1 Tuohy SO NC State [/b](defeated Chelangat by 12 seconds in a 5k @ Joe Piane) Undefeated during 2022 season on some of the more difficult courses in the NCAA (ie: Nuttycombe) [b] 2 Valby SO Florida[/b] (defeated Chelangat by 8 seconds @ SEC) Undefeated during 2022 season, ran possibly the fastest ever recorded 6k course in the history of the NCAA @ SEC in 18:25. Flat-fast courses during 2022 season[i] NOTE: 3, 4 & 5 could flip-flop in various ways:[/i] [b] 3 Chmiel JR NC State[/b] (12 seconds behind Tuohy @ ACC)- has been within 5 seconds of Tuohy @ Nuttycombe). Placed ahead of Chelangat due to being closer to Tuohy in a longer and more challenging course. [b] 4 Chelangat SR Alabama[/b] (12 seconds behind Tuohy in a 5k @ Joe Piane) Chelangat is ahead of McCabe based on the last time they were head-to-head was @ 2021 NCAA’s and Chelangat defeated her Ran possibly the 2nd fasted ever recorded 6k course in NCAA history at SEC in 18:33 [b] 5 McCabe JR West Virginia[/b] (2 seconds ahead of Roe @ Big 12) Undefeated during 2022 season [b] 6 Roe SR Oklahoma State[/b] (handily showed her teammates who’s leading her team @ Big 12 by being far ahead of them when sprinting w/ McCabe) [b] 7 Jepkirui FR Oklahoma State[/b] (6 seconds behind Roe @ Big 12) [b] 8 Kemboi SR Utah Valley[/b] (defeated Stearns by 8 seconds @ Mountain Region) [b] 9 Stearns SO NAU[/b] (8 seconds behind Chmiel @ Nutty, 9 seconds behind Roe @ Cowboy) [b] 10 Cook FR Oklahoma State[/b] (11 seconds behind Roe @ Big 12)Regardless of how this all turns out. The fact that OSU has 3 women very strongly possibly finishing in the top-10 is incredible and very well may have a chance at winning the team title. I’m excited to watch this race!Thoughts?

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3 years ago 11/16/2022 10:32am EST

re: TuohyFan

TuohyFan wrote
Solid list! If Chelangat has in fact been holding back this whole time, (which I actually don’t think is the case, as she really did run FAST against Valby when she lost by 8 seconds), then having won on this course previously, she’ll win on Saturday…

It's not that I think Mercy held back against Valby...she did let her go in the middle of the race, but Mercy closed at virtually the same pace as Valby. So it's not that Valby outkicked Mercy...she may have caught her off-guard in the middle and then it was too late to do anything about it.

Anyway, I don't think there is any chance that Tuohy/Valby get too far ahead of Mercy this race. Mercy has the experience when she ran this with Orton and Roe in 2021. She jumped on Ortons weakness and blew Roe away in the final km. So if Tuohy/Valby go hard, Mercy will likely sit back and hope for any show of weakness. Mercy is not as fast as either of them flat out...but will be there waiting for any sign of trouble.

I expect McCabe, Roe, Mercy and Chmiel will all pack run...they know what the two in front of them are capable of.

3 years ago 11/16/2022 10:38am EST

re: astro

astro wrote:
It is not that I don't think anonymous emails are not the gold standard of journalism, but what the email said did not make any sense.

Haha, I’ve been thinking this all along. :)

3 years ago 11/16/2022 10:40am EST

re: Jedsdead

Jedsdead wrote:
TuohyFan wrote
Solid list! If Chelangat has in fact been holding back this whole time, (which I actually don’t think is the case, as she really did run FAST against Valby when she lost by 8 seconds), then having won on this course previously, she’ll win on Saturday…
I expect McCabe, Roe, Mercy and Chmiel will all pack run...they know what the two in front of them are capable of.

That’s exactly how I see it playing out as well.

3 years ago 11/16/2022 11:01am EST

re: Jedsdead

One final comment about the "injury', and to me the most telling...all year Tuohy has set a decent pace during races, and then takes off somewhere around the 4k - 4.5k mark (which lines up right around that last hill climb at OSU). She has closed all of the previous races hard even though she hasn't needed to...she has been preparing for the final stage of the Nats race all year. Again, there was no reason for her to do this at Regionals if she was worried about any injury. You are not getting in better shape 1 week out. Had she not pushed at the end of Regionals, that would have been normal (similar to Mercy, Roe, Cook etc). But she did...and closed 2k in 6:08. That is fast by any standard, and likely the same pace as Valby during SEC's.

So obviously Tuohy did not think anything was wrong for that final 2km, nor did she seek any assistance after.

3 years ago 11/16/2022 11:07am EST

re: Jedsdead

“McCabe, Roe, Mercy and Chmiel will all pack run“

Agree. I’m not convinced PV can front-run 1) on this course, and 2) in the forecasted wind and 20-something wind chills — and win. I also believe that ‘tweaks’ when one is warm and racing often become something different when one fully cools off. This course and the forecasted conditions will test that ‘tweak.’

I think the winner will come from one of the group named above.

3 years ago 11/16/2022 11:17am EST

re: Jedsdead

Jedsdead wrote:
One final comment about the "injury', and to me the most telling...all year Tuohy has set a decent pace during races, and then takes off somewhere around the 4k - 4.5k mark (which lines up right around that last hill climb at OSU). She has closed all of the previous races hard even though she hasn't needed to...she has been preparing for the final stage of the Nats race all year.

Yep…………………………….

3 years ago 11/16/2022 11:18am EST

re: vmg

vmg wrote:
“McCabe, Roe, Mercy and Chmiel will all pack run“
Agree. I’m not convinced PV can front-run 1) on this course, and 2) in the forecasted wind and 20-something wind chills — and win. I also believe that ‘tweaks’ when one is warm and racing often become something different when one fully cools off. This course and the forecasted conditions will test that ‘tweak.’
I think the winner will come from one of the group named above.

Look at you, making a prediction.

Very well could be the case!

3 years ago 11/16/2022 11:22am EST

re: vmg

I agree with you...my prediction...Valby obviously runs at the front and pushes an honest pace, but does not try to take off. The top 6-8 will separate from the pack during the first large hill climb...this will be the point PV&KT start to push a bit more, and at 4.5 km the real race will start. The weather is not to PV's advantage, nor to KT if she does have any issues going on.

That could open the door for the Mercy-Train to come through.

3 years ago 11/16/2022 11:28am EST

re: Jedsdead

Jedsdead wrote:
I agree with you...my prediction...Valby obviously runs at the front and pushes an honest pace, but does not try to take off. The top 6-8 will separate from the pack during the first large hill climb...this will be the point PV&KT start to push a bit more, and at 4.5 km the real race will start. The weather is not to PV's advantage, nor to KT if she does have any issues going on.
That could open the door for the Mercy-Train to come through.

So far Valby has gone for a gap way earlier, at about 3k or sooner. I think 2k at regionals? What do you think happens in that scenario?

3 years ago 11/16/2022 11:28am EST

re: Jedsdead

Jedsdead wrote:
I agree with you...my prediction...Valby obviously runs at the front and pushes an honest pace, but does not try to take off. The top 6-8 will separate from the pack during the first large hill climb...this will be the point PV&KT start to push a bit more, and at 4.5 km the real race will start. The weather is not to PV's advantage, nor to KT if she does have any issues going on.
That could open the door for the Mercy-Train to come through.

Very well could be. There won’t be any pesky mosquitos in those cold temperatures though.

3 years ago 11/16/2022 11:30am EST

re: Blank231

Blank231 wrote:
Jedsdead wrote:
I agree with you...my prediction...Valby obviously runs at the front and pushes an honest pace, but does not try to take off. The top 6-8 will separate from the pack during the first large hill climb...this will be the point PV&KT start to push a bit more, and at 4.5 km the real race will start. The weather is not to PV's advantage, nor to KT if she does have any issues going on.
That could open the door for the Mercy-Train to come through.
So far Valby has gone for a gap way earlier, at about 3k or sooner. I think 2k at regionals? What do you think happens in that scenario?

I think quite awhile back FastTuohy predicted that Valby will go sub-9:40 for the first 3km…. It’ll be interesting if she does.

3 years ago 11/16/2022 11:46am EST

re: TuohyFan

I think quite awhile back FastTuohy predicted that Valby will go sub-9:40 for the first 3km…. It’ll be interesting if she does.

That would certainly be fast, faster than ACC's

3 years ago 11/16/2022 11:56am EST

re: astro

astro wrote:
It is not that I don't think anonymous emails are not the gold standard of journalism, but what the email said did not make any sense. And all she said during the race is that she had a cramp and she cooled down normally. That is all we have to go on.

No, we have other stuff to go on that was on another thread that got deleted.

3 years ago 11/16/2022 11:58am EST

re: the superior athlete will show up

The one that got deleted before reaching 25 pages. Yep, I recall.

3 years ago 11/16/2022 11:58am EST

re: Blank231

Blank231 wrote:
I think quite awhile back FastTuohy predicted that Valby will go sub-9:40 for the first 3km…. It’ll be interesting if she does.
That would certainly be fast, faster than ACC's

Well, at ACC’s Tuohy and Markezich went out in 9:38 w/ Chmiel @ 9:40

3 years ago 11/16/2022 12:00pm EST

re: TuohyFan

Yep. At ACCs Tuohy did not push once she reached the NDs runners until later when Chmiel came up.

3 years ago 11/16/2022 12:08pm EST

re: astro

astro wrote:
Yep. At ACCs Tuohy did not push once she reached the NDs runners until later when Chmiel came up.

I do think the OSU course is slower than the VA course. At VA the hills are many, but short. OSU has longer hills, especially the climb at ~2500 m.

3 years ago 11/16/2022 12:13pm EST

re: FastTuohy

FastTuohy wrote:

Didn’t we determine on a different thread (probably the ACC one), that we think OSU’s will run about 20-30 seconds slower than Panorama?

3 years ago 11/16/2022 12:17pm EST

re: TuohyFan

TuohyFan wrote:
FastTuohy wrote:
Didn’t we determine on a different thread (probably the ACC one), that we think OSU’s will run about 20-30 seconds slower than Panorama?

I don't recall but that sounds reasonable. If you can find that and the basis, please do.

3 years ago 11/16/2022 12:18pm EST

re: TuohyFan

Sounds like Sunken Meadow vs. Holmdel.

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