Sorry- zarbo
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Ideal conditions. wrote:
I’m not saying that Sam Bush isn’t talented, because she is, but I still don’t see her as a top 5-10 placer. I see her more in the 10-15 range. Maybe she has become more consistent but my impression of her is that she is not consistent.
Sam has improved a ton from last year, and actually from the last two races she has placed inside top 5, top 1 in adidas xc and top 5 in joe piane, her mileage is up this season and thats why i believe she can stay more consistent than last season
i have her as the second best runner at nc state, and marlee is third, idk about kelsey but at indoors, she was running same times as sam so i think they are close, but then we know kelsey is an amazing cross country runner, so if she comes back, ill put her either the 2nd or 3rd just behind sam
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FastTuohy wrote:
My current guess by groupings - assuming no Chmiel. Some good names get pushed out to 20-25 and this does not have OSU and AL
Katelyn Tuohy - seems to me she should be favored
Aubrey Frentheway
Everlyn Kemboi
Isabel Van Camp
Sydney Seymour
Samantha Bush
Amelia Mazza-Downie
Gracelyn Larkin
Emma Heckel
Olivia Markezich
Kaylee MitchellEmily Covert
Marlee Starliper
Samree Dishon
Elise Stearns
Annika Reiss
Maddy Denner - ??? probably better or worse
Grace Featherstonaugh - this might be optimistic
Haley Herberg - ??? probably better or worseBailey Hertenstein
Taryn O'Neill
Bethany Graham
Brynn Brown
Emily VentersSam Bush will defeat Frenthway and will finish behind Kemboi
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Lookingforagoodmatchup wrote:
Not sure where you’re going with that. If you’re referring to Houlihan I won’t go there. Actual training, will be what has worked for him when he coached at UW and evolved as a pro coach which is aerobic strength based work. He is secretive about the specific Bowerman TC training but it’s obviously very high volume at moderate to moderately high intensity. Definitely not speed oriented. He has a quirky system they refer to as “Badger miles” that is basically a way to run more volume than you actually count. He learned and adapted his training from Martin Smith. UW men were basically the top collegiate distance program when he left. Presumably they will benefit from Nike tech but probably can’t go to altitude as much.
Most definitely referring to the actual training (not Houlihan etc).
Interesting stuff. BTC is arguably the top US distance pro group so really just wondering how closely the college training will be to the pro training. Like, what is very high volume? Also, will he be good with mid-d/ speedier athletes?
It’s surprising there’s so little talk about possibly the top distance coach in the country coming back to coach college kids. Jerry produced some good 1500 runners at UW but his program clearly isn’t suited to most mile/800 types. High volume is hard to discern in terms of total mileage because Badger miles obscures the actual mileage. That said my sense is very little actual speed work. High volume workouts at tempo or slightly faster are staples.
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semihaze wrote:
FastTuohy wrote:
My current guess by groupings - assuming no Chmiel. Some good names get pushed out to 20-25 and this does not have OSU and AL
Katelyn Tuohy - seems to me she should be favored
Aubrey Frentheway
Everlyn Kemboi
Isabel Van Camp
Sydney Seymour
Samantha Bush
Amelia Mazza-Downie
Gracelyn Larkin
Emma Heckel
Olivia Markezich
Kaylee MitchellEmily Covert
Marlee Starliper
Samree Dishon
Elise Stearns
Annika Reiss
Maddy Denner - ??? probably better or worse
Grace Featherstonaugh - this might be optimistic
Haley Herberg - ??? probably better or worseBailey Hertenstein
Taryn O'Neill
Bethany Graham
Brynn Brown
Emily VentersSam Bush will defeat Frenthway and will finish behind Kemboi
You don't think Bush could finish ahead of Kemboi?
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If sam finished in front of alabama's 2nd then id put her in front of kemboi, but she didnt so i put kemboi ahead of her simply because kemboi finished 3rd on an unfamiliar tough course and then won her next race so i feel like she has more momentum of doing well, and shes excited to race against katelyn (how i know that, i cant say it)
i really hope sam proves me wrong and she finishes top 2 and then kelsey as top 3 if she ever runs this friday, hopefully she does coz its the biggest invitational, this is as close as you can get to a national line up
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Lookingforagoodmatchup wrote:
semihaze wrote:
Sam Bush will defeat Frenthway and will finish behind Kemboi
You don't think Bush could finish ahead of Kemboi?
If I have to force rank the following I will guess this. More of a WAG. But I think these 9 are close
Kaylee Mitchell - beat Bush and Seymour at ND
Samantha Bush
Sydney Seymour
Everlyn Kemboi - the question is how much faster than 20:22 at OSU is she?
Isabel Van Camp - I just think she is this good
Aubrey Frentheway
Olivia Markezich
Gracelyn Larkin
Amelia Mazza-Downie
Emma Heckel40 -
Justification for my top-10:
1 Katelyn Tuohy NC State SO
15:14 track 5k, 15:50 XC 5k this year. 20:08 @ Nutty in 2021. 4:06 1500m speed. Again, I predict 19:17 for her this weekend if conditions are right.
2 Samantha Bush NC State JR
15:45 track 5k, 16:11 XC 5k this year. 20:27 @ Nutty in 2021. 8:54 track 3k. 4:13 1500m speed.
3 Everlyn Kemboi Utah Valley SR
Not known for fast track running, she can run on the grass and her 2022 season is going phenomenally well. 3rd @ the Jamboree against 2 arguably top-5 national contenders and then backing that up with a victory @ Paul Short in 19:33 (course short? maybe, but she still won). She won’t win in a sprint finish, but she’ll race tough at the front.
4 Isabel Van-Camp Arkansas JR
I agree with FastTuohy. She’s just that good… 15:35 track 5k, 15:58 XC 5k, 19:54 XC 6k, 4:16 1500 speed
5 Emily Covert Colorado SO
15:35 track 5k, 19:51 XC 6k (I think she had a bad day @ Cowboy Jamboree as she was up with the leaders and fell way back, but that was several weeks ago), 9:04 track 3k speed.
6 Gracelyn Larkin New Mexico JR
15:29 track 5k, 19:41 XC 6k (at Altitude in Albuquerque a year ago).
7 Sydney Seymour NC State SR
15:34 track 5k, 19:46 XC 6k. 6th @ Joe Piane w/ Alabama’s two big guns ahead of her, and Oregon’s Kaylee Mitchell.
8 Emily Venters Utah SR
15:47 track 5k w/ a 33:07 track 10k. She’s fast AND strong.
9 Elise Stearns Northern Arizona SO
15:55 track 5k, 5th @ Cowboy Jamboree against Roe, Cook, and Kemboi.
10 Marlee Starliper NC State FR
From an injured not-ran for 2 seasons to BOOM a 15:36 track 5k, 2nd @ Adidas XC Challenge, and 12th @ Joe Piane (I think she’s just lacking a touch of fitness still as she was UP there with the leaders and then dropped in the last 1k). She’s continuing to improve and will be top-10 this weekend.
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Kemboi
Covert
Tuohy
Larkin
Bush
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Sam Gilman, Air Force Academy, is going to podium at NuttyCombe in 2022! Go AIR FORCE!
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Boy Can wrote:
Kemboi
Covert
Tuohy
Larkin
Bush
Well that’s an interesting mix-up in the order. What makes you think this will be the result of the top-5?
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TuohyFan wrote:
Boy Can wrote:
Kemboi
Covert
Tuohy
Larkin
Bush
Well that’s an interesting mix-up in the order. What makes you think this will be the result of the top-5?
If Covert beats Tuohy I think that will be first time.......I spose Tuohy could get tripped up though...is this a reincarnation of the MN (now CO) girls are coming after Tuohy?
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FastTuohy wrote:
TuohyFan wrote:
Well that’s an interesting mix-up in the order. What makes you think this will be the result of the top-5?
If Covert beats Tuohy I think that will be first time.......I spose Tuohy could get tripped up though...is this a reincarnation of the MN (now CO) girls are coming after Tuohy?
see 2018...20 -
And Covert took 4th @ NXN that year, and then 5th @ Footlocker…
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Great article from Dyestat this morning about this weekend’s Nutty!
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semihaze wrote:
you can check the site DISCORD, quite easy there, all free!! you just do a livestream by sharing your screen then share the link, everyone who has a link can watch ~
After reading the fine print from RunnerSpace subscriptions, I’m not comfortable doing a live stream share of their live stream. Sorry folks. Reasoning:
The Services are for your personal and noncommercial use. You may not modify, copy, distribute, transmit, display, perform, reproduce, publish, license, create derivative works from, transfer or sell for any commercial purposes any portion of the Services, use of the Services or access to Content.
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I have Covert in my top 12 - and I hope she does well. Certainly has the talent to be a contender....but it seems everytime I expect her to really push the leaders, she struggles. Hopefully this is her year to shine!
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Interesting takes Fast and Fan. At this part of the season, I tend to give more weight to ‘indicators of fitness at 6K’ and thus high finishers at Stillwater like Frentheway, Mitchell, Reiss, Ramsden, Roarke et al will have my attention in Wisconsin. There’s always the question of fitness progress vs a seasonal plan that doesn’t want people to peak for a bit, as well performance relative to an expected ceiling but I’m more impressed by what happened at Stillwater than South Bend. That additional 1K changes the equation for many; we’ll see how it goes.
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Jedsdead wrote:
I have Covert in my top 12 - and I hope she does well. Certainly has the talent to be a contender....but it seems everytime I expect her to really push the leaders, she struggles. Hopefully this is her year to shine!
I expect that she’ll do well. I have her picked for 5th. That’s saying a lot in this field, and she’s capable of it, certainly.
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vmg wrote:
Interesting takes Fast and Fan. At this part of the season, I tend to give more weight to ‘indicators of fitness at 6K’ and thus high finishers at Stillwater like Frentheway, Mitchell, Reiss, Ramsden, Roarke et al will have my attention in Wisconsin. There’s always the question of fitness progress vs a seasonal plan that doesn’t want people to peak for a bit, as well performance relative to an expected ceiling but I’m more impressed by what happened at Stillwater than South Bend. That additional 1K changes the equation for many; we’ll see how it goes.
I think this
"There’s always the question of fitness progress vs a seasonal plan that doesn’t want people to peak for a bit"
is the big unknown in translating early season results to mid Oct and later.
One could argue that both NC St and NM ran better at Nuttycombe last year than they did at Joe Piane 2 weeks earlier. I certainly think CO will be better than they showed at OSU, and AR too (especially Van Camp). I would put that in the seasonal plan category (along with most of the top programs). UT Valley is one I am wondering about. Mitchell ran at Joe Piane!
So who do you like for top 10?
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