Wilmington will not be selected! It won't happen!
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Brockport should make it to nationals
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Wash U... more like Wash L.
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Wash U?
Wash me!
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Does anyone know how closely the D3 selection process resembles D1? I know its not as formulaic, but do they mainly consider wins against teams already in the field? How real is the "push" process in D3? Or do they only consider ten teams at a time?
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Team At-Large Selection
The selection criteria below will be considered to select the at-large teams.
● Regional performance/place; Regional performance/place is the primary piece of the criteria, as a team cannot
be selected to the championships over a team it finished behind at its respective regional.
● Head-to-head competition with teams already in the championships field and other potential at-large
teams using late-season performance comparisons; Note: Late-season performance (a team’s meet that
occurs on or after Sept. 23, including regionals) that meets the following criteria will be used during the
selection process:
- A team runs at least five of its student-athletes who will compete for their institution at regionals.
- The race length must be at least 5 kilometers for the women, and 7 kilometers for the men.
- The meet must be scored in accordance with the scoring procedures in the NCAA Cross Country and
Track and Field Rules Book.
● Common opponents using late-season performance comparisons;
● Regional meet results — point gap for place of a team’s finish and total team score versus the team that placed
ahead of it and behind it; and
● Late-season meet results — point gap for place of a team’s finish versus the team that placed ahead of and
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Has anybody looked at the new Regions to see if the numbers add up? Looks like some only had 24 teams while others had closer to 35. The NCAA changed it because several Regions had the potential to race 70 teams but i don’t think participation has increased due to the new regionals. Thoughts?
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AQs(10):
John Carroll, MIT, Haverford, Carnegie Mellon, Williams, North Central, SUNY Geneseo, UW-Whitewater, Emory
At-Large Locks(13):
RPI, UW-La Crosse, Johns Hopkins, Wartburg, Case Western, Middlebury, St. Olaf, CMS, Lynchburg, UW-Stout, Loras, UC Santa Cruz, George Fox
Should be in(7):
Mount Union, Otterbein, Chicago, WashU, Bates, Colby, Conn College
Colby and Otterbein are only not locks b/c of losing to Mt. Union and Bates. Same with WashU losing to Chicago the last two meets. No team benefitted from a regional finish as much as Mt. Union did today beating Otterbein, Calvin, and Wilmington. Went from very little path forward to "should be in."
Most likely Bubble(3 for 2 spots):
Calvin, Wilmington, Tufts
Next two out(2):
UW-Eau Claire, St. Lawrence (lEau Claire lost to Calvin, and SLU lost to Calvin and Tufts)Right now the comparison is Calvin vs. Tufts. If D3 practices the "push," then Wilmington could push Calvin in and take the last two spots for the Great Lakes region. If Calvin wins the first comparison, then Wilmington vs. Tufts should be interesting. Wilmington seems to have it due to beating Calvin and Conn College, but they lost by 100 POINTS today to Calvin. We'll see how much the committee values later season performance.
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Yeah I've read the manual but its not really clear on how they consider teams. Will they push in a 3rd place team if the 4th place team is the best in the comparison? It is explicit that the D1 committee considers 18 teams at a time(2 per region).
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Does anyone have a breakdown on the projected women's field?
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Calvin v. Tufts
Common Opponents: MIT, Conn College, Mt. Union
Calvin at Prenats: Lost to MIT by 265, Lost to Conn College by 26, Beat Mt. Union by 11
Calvin lost to Mt. Union today by 33Tufts at Conn College Invite: Lost to MIT by 225, Lost to Conn College by 21, Beat Mt. Union by 29
Tufts lost to Conn College again by 15 at NESCACSize of invitational is relevant to scores. Conn College Invite is 23 teams, while Prenats is 36.
Best other results against other probable NCAA teams? Calvin lost to UChicago by 10 at Augustana, while Tufts lost by 1 to Bates at NESCAC(that being said, they were 44 back of Bates today).I would probably give it to Tufts based on their wins. Tufts resounding win versus Mt. Union at Conn College versus Calvin's smaller win(at a bigger meet no less) and resounding loss today. If the committee were to pick Calvin, it would come down to this...
Tufts v. Wilmington
Common Opponents: same as aboveWilmington beat Conn by 28, Mt. Union by 65 and Lost to MIT by 211 at prenats
Wilmington lost to Mt. Union by 134 today.MIT results are equal for both teams. Wilmington did have a bigger win against Mt. Union, but let's say that's covered by the difference in number of teams at both meets. What separates the teams is Wilmington beat Conn, and Tufts lost to them twice. BUT, Wilmington lost by 100 today to Calvin and 134 to Mt. Union, while Tufts trailed their nearest competitor, Colby, by 34. And they beat Mt. Union by 29 earlier this year.
If it comes down to these three teams, Calvin is in as they have to get in over Wilmington. The real question is if the committee will consider the Tufts-Calvin comparison separately from the Tufts-Wilmington comparison. And how much they will weigh Wilmington getting blown out today. I think it will be Tufts and then Calvin as the last teams in, with Wilmington as the first out.
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runnerguy2 wrote:
Calvin v. Tufts
Common Opponents: MIT, Conn College, Mt. Union
Calvin at Prenats: Lost to MIT by 265, Lost to Conn College by 26, Beat Mt. Union by 11
Calvin lost to Mt. Union today by 33Tufts at Conn College Invite: Lost to MIT by 225, Lost to Conn College by 21, Beat Mt. Union by 29
Tufts lost to Conn College again by 15 at NESCACSize of invitational is relevant to scores. Conn College Invite is 23 teams, while Prenats is 36.
Best other results against other probable NCAA teams? Calvin lost to UChicago by 10 at Augustana, while Tufts lost by 1 to Bates at NESCAC(that being said, they were 44 back of Bates today).I would probably give it to Tufts based on their wins. Tufts resounding win versus Mt. Union at Conn College versus Calvin's smaller win(at a bigger meet no less) and resounding loss today. If the committee were to pick Calvin, it would come down to this...
Tufts v. Wilmington
Common Opponents: same as aboveWilmington beat Conn by 28, Mt. Union by 65 and Lost to MIT by 211 at prenats
Wilmington lost to Mt. Union by 134 today.MIT results are equal for both teams. Wilmington did have a bigger win against Mt. Union, but let's say that's covered by the difference in number of teams at both meets. What separates the teams is Wilmington beat Conn, and Tufts lost to them twice. BUT, Wilmington lost by 100 today to Calvin and 134 to Mt. Union, while Tufts trailed their nearest competitor, Colby, by 34. And they beat Mt. Union by 29 earlier this year.
If it comes down to these three teams, Calvin is in as they have to get in over Wilmington. The real question is if the committee will consider the Tufts-Calvin comparison separately from the Tufts-Wilmington comparison. And how much they will weigh Wilmington getting blown out today. I think it will be Tufts and then Calvin as the last teams in, with Wilmington as the first out.
Look at the at-large selection criteria. Regional results matter most, then head-to-head, then record against common opponents, then regional point gaps, then late season point gaps. The point gaps would only come into play if the two teams were equal in the first four criteria. They are not equal in head-to-head. Calvin does noticeably better in head-to-head than Tufts, with wins over Wilmington and UWEC in addition to SLU and Mt Union.
Wilmington definitely does better head-to-head than than Tufts, since they've beaten Chicago, Conn, and Calvin at prenats. They aren't going to get held out for losing at regionals to a Calvin team which itself qualified. Since they have better head-to-head results, they will qualify ahead of Tufts.
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runnerguy2 wrote:
Calvin v. Tufts
Common Opponents: MIT, Conn College, Mt. Union
Calvin at Prenats: Lost to MIT by 265, Lost to Conn College by 26, Beat Mt. Union by 11
Calvin lost to Mt. Union today by 33Tufts at Conn College Invite: Lost to MIT by 225, Lost to Conn College by 21, Beat Mt. Union by 29
Tufts lost to Conn College again by 15 at NESCACSize of invitational is relevant to scores. Conn College Invite is 23 teams, while Prenats is 36.
Best other results against other probable NCAA teams? Calvin lost to UChicago by 10 at Augustana, while Tufts lost by 1 to Bates at NESCAC(that being said, they were 44 back of Bates today).I would probably give it to Tufts based on their wins. Tufts resounding win versus Mt. Union at Conn College versus Calvin's smaller win(at a bigger meet no less) and resounding loss today. If the committee were to pick Calvin, it would come down to this...
Tufts v. Wilmington
Common Opponents: same as aboveWilmington beat Conn by 28, Mt. Union by 65 and Lost to MIT by 211 at prenats
Wilmington lost to Mt. Union by 134 today.MIT results are equal for both teams. Wilmington did have a bigger win against Mt. Union, but let's say that's covered by the difference in number of teams at both meets. What separates the teams is Wilmington beat Conn, and Tufts lost to them twice. BUT, Wilmington lost by 100 today to Calvin and 134 to Mt. Union, while Tufts trailed their nearest competitor, Colby, by 34. And they beat Mt. Union by 29 earlier this year.
If it comes down to these three teams, Calvin is in as they have to get in over Wilmington. The real question is if the committee will consider the Tufts-Calvin comparison separately from the Tufts-Wilmington comparison. And how much they will weigh Wilmington getting blown out today. I think it will be Tufts and then Calvin as the last teams in, with Wilmington as the first out.
Also, your points analysis is just kind of absurd. Trying to argue that Tufts should go ahead of Calvin because of an 18 point difference in how much they beat Mt. Union by in different meets is ridiculous.
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UAA Fan wrote:
runnerguy2 wrote:
Calvin v. Tufts
Common Opponents: MIT, Conn College, Mt. Union
Calvin at Prenats: Lost to MIT by 265, Lost to Conn College by 26, Beat Mt. Union by 11
Calvin lost to Mt. Union today by 33Tufts at Conn College Invite: Lost to MIT by 225, Lost to Conn College by 21, Beat Mt. Union by 29
Tufts lost to Conn College again by 15 at NESCACSize of invitational is relevant to scores. Conn College Invite is 23 teams, while Prenats is 36.
Best other results against other probable NCAA teams? Calvin lost to UChicago by 10 at Augustana, while Tufts lost by 1 to Bates at NESCAC(that being said, they were 44 back of Bates today).I would probably give it to Tufts based on their wins. Tufts resounding win versus Mt. Union at Conn College versus Calvin's smaller win(at a bigger meet no less) and resounding loss today. If the committee were to pick Calvin, it would come down to this...
Tufts v. Wilmington
Common Opponents: same as aboveWilmington beat Conn by 28, Mt. Union by 65 and Lost to MIT by 211 at prenats
Wilmington lost to Mt. Union by 134 today.MIT results are equal for both teams. Wilmington did have a bigger win against Mt. Union, but let's say that's covered by the difference in number of teams at both meets. What separates the teams is Wilmington beat Conn, and Tufts lost to them twice. BUT, Wilmington lost by 100 today to Calvin and 134 to Mt. Union, while Tufts trailed their nearest competitor, Colby, by 34. And they beat Mt. Union by 29 earlier this year.
If it comes down to these three teams, Calvin is in as they have to get in over Wilmington. The real question is if the committee will consider the Tufts-Calvin comparison separately from the Tufts-Wilmington comparison. And how much they will weigh Wilmington getting blown out today. I think it will be Tufts and then Calvin as the last teams in, with Wilmington as the first out.
Look at the at-large selection criteria. Regional results matter most, then head-to-head, then record against common opponents, then regional point gaps, then late season point gaps. The point gaps would only come into play if the two teams were equal in the first four criteria. They are not equal in head-to-head. Calvin does noticeably better in head-to-head than Tufts, with wins over Wilmington and UWEC in addition to SLU and Mt Union.
Wilmington definitely does better head-to-head than than Tufts, since they've beaten Chicago, Conn, and Calvin at prenats. They aren't going to get held out for losing at regionals to a Calvin team which itself qualified. Since they have better head-to-head results, they will qualify ahead of Tufts.
Wilmington has been trending in the wrong direction since peaking at pre nats and will not qualify!
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runnerguy2 wrote:
Does anyone know how closely the D3 selection process resembles D1? I know its not as formulaic, but do they mainly consider wins against teams already in the field? How real is the "push" process in D3? Or do they only consider ten teams at a time?
There are no pushes in D3. Every team is selected on their own merit.
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No Push wrote:
runnerguy2 wrote:
Does anyone know how closely the D3 selection process resembles D1? I know its not as formulaic, but do they mainly consider wins against teams already in the field? How real is the "push" process in D3? Or do they only consider ten teams at a time?
There are no pushes in D3. Every team is selected on their own merit.
Correct no pushes, and the committee looks at 10teams at a time (one from each region) BUT the committee will now look at the next team behind each of those 10 teams, and if TEAM A beats TEAM B that has a lot of quality wins, TEAM A will get a boast from it.
It’s not a push, but an extra data point for the selection process that wasn’t used for consideration in the past
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A guess at the women’s field -
East (2) - MIT, Bates
Great Lakes (4) - John Carroll, Calvin, Hope, Mount Union
Metro (1) - Widener
Mid-Atlantic (2) - Johns Hopkins, Carnegie Mellon
Mideast (5) - Williams, Amherst, RPI, St. Lawrence, Smith
Midwest (4) - Wartburg, U. Chicago, Wash U., Loras
Niagara (2) - Geneseo, NYU
North (5) - Carleton, LaCrosse, St. Olaf, Eau Claire, Stevens Point
South (2) - Lynchburg, Emory
West (5) - Claremont, Pomona, Santa Cruz, George Fox, Colorado College
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UAA Fan wrote:
runnerguy2 wrote:
Calvin v. Tufts
Common Opponents: MIT, Conn College, Mt. Union
Calvin at Prenats: Lost to MIT by 265, Lost to Conn College by 26, Beat Mt. Union by 11
Calvin lost to Mt. Union today by 33Tufts at Conn College Invite: Lost to MIT by 225, Lost to Conn College by 21, Beat Mt. Union by 29
Tufts lost to Conn College again by 15 at NESCACSize of invitational is relevant to scores. Conn College Invite is 23 teams, while Prenats is 36.
Best other results against other probable NCAA teams? Calvin lost to UChicago by 10 at Augustana, while Tufts lost by 1 to Bates at NESCAC(that being said, they were 44 back of Bates today).I would probably give it to Tufts based on their wins. Tufts resounding win versus Mt. Union at Conn College versus Calvin's smaller win(at a bigger meet no less) and resounding loss today. If the committee were to pick Calvin, it would come down to this...
Tufts v. Wilmington
Common Opponents: same as aboveWilmington beat Conn by 28, Mt. Union by 65 and Lost to MIT by 211 at prenats
Wilmington lost to Mt. Union by 134 today.MIT results are equal for both teams. Wilmington did have a bigger win against Mt. Union, but let's say that's covered by the difference in number of teams at both meets. What separates the teams is Wilmington beat Conn, and Tufts lost to them twice. BUT, Wilmington lost by 100 today to Calvin and 134 to Mt. Union, while Tufts trailed their nearest competitor, Colby, by 34. And they beat Mt. Union by 29 earlier this year.
If it comes down to these three teams, Calvin is in as they have to get in over Wilmington. The real question is if the committee will consider the Tufts-Calvin comparison separately from the Tufts-Wilmington comparison. And how much they will weigh Wilmington getting blown out today. I think it will be Tufts and then Calvin as the last teams in, with Wilmington as the first out.
Look at the at-large selection criteria. Regional results matter most, then head-to-head, then record against common opponents, then regional point gaps, then late season point gaps. The point gaps would only come into play if the two teams were equal in the first four criteria. They are not equal in head-to-head. Calvin does noticeably better in head-to-head than Tufts, with wins over Wilmington and UWEC in addition to SLU and Mt Union.
Wilmington definitely does better head-to-head than than Tufts, since they've beaten Chicago, Conn, and Calvin at prenats. They aren't going to get held out for losing at regionals to a Calvin team which itself qualified. Since they have better head-to-head results, they will qualify ahead of Tufts.
Eat sh*t. Tufts is in over Wilmington
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Fields announced
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Congrats on the 17th time getting in to nationals... Go get that 32nd place!
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