Lol. Putin is so Dumb. Russia is Screwed.

AdultInTheRoom disappears as soon as Russia starts getting spanked by Ukrainian farmers. Ouch baby

There is no way Russia wins this in the long-term, even if/when Ukraine does fall, the Counter insurgency will be of a magnitude that history will never have seen before. Ukraine is unique in the regard that it borders NATO countries, the supply of lethal aid along a massive land border will be unstoppable, the technological advancement of the weapons and training will be of the highest quality that any insurgent force has ever seen and the vast majority of the country is not pro-Russian, usually in these conflicts, insurgents are in the political minority but that will not be the case in Ukraine.

I live in a Country where a small insurgent force(200-1000 people) launched a campaign on the British occupying army and it lasted 30 years. And this was an insurgent force that started the conflict with weapons that were 50 years out of date. And Britain was not under any economic sanctions during the conflict. Russia will neither have the money or public backing to hold Ukraine and no modern army has figured out how to efficiently squash counterinsurgency. The casualties come to slow at too high a cost and it drains them of their will. And this insurgency will be fighting with the most sophisticated weapons and training, with a huge land border with NATO allies which they can and will cross at will knowing the Russians cant follow without provoking war with NATO itself, the insurgency will also have majority support in Ukraine meaning safehouses, weapon caches and communication will be readily available and plentiful. All this will be happening while Russia is plowing huge amounts of money into intelligence and military for limited gains while already under incredibly stringent sanctions and under constant threat of attacks happening on Russian soil.

If you thought the US had a tough time in Afghanistan, that will have nothing on Russia is about to face, the US has never fought a counterinsurgency on its doorstep which also has a land border with the most powerful military coalition in the world backing them.

You may be right, but it's so tough to say this early on.Russia is in a far different position than the US or UK:

It isn't a democracy. It's locked down by an autocratic regime that has tight control of the population. It controls every inch of the border except the extreme far west. Putin isn't held to the same humanitarian concerns that democracies are. It's citizens live in a vacuum. The only thing being covered by media in Russia is the "minor incursion" in the Dobas. The state has tight control of the internet, and very few Russians speak foreign languages to interpret foreign media.

I'm rooting for Ukraine and democracy. But this could go any number of ways.

There are plenty of Russians in the US that have contact with family still in Russia. They know what’s going on. My neighbor is Russian and constantly goes back to Russia. Pretty sure he’s there now which kind of sketches me out. He’s also loaded/ owns a used car dealership and I have no idea how he got his money

A new day (night for Ukrainians) and things continue to get worse for Putin. He thought Zelensky would be a pushover, but instead he has turned him into an international hero. The Ukrainians have rallied and rebuffed the Russian military. The facts on the ground are highly unclear, but it seems apparent that the Russians have suffered far more losses than they initially anticipated. Ukraine has momentum. The international community is now not being so hands off; NATO countries are now OPENLY sending weapons into Ukraine to help kill Russian soldiers and preparations are now underway to cut Russia off from the SWIFT banking system. Turkey is blocking Russian warships from entering the Black Sea. Even China is now asking Russia to start engaging in peace talks. There continue to be larger anti-war demonstrations by the Russian people despite an attempted crackdown on dissenters. This invasion was a gargantuan tactical blunder.

The only question now is: exactly how dumb is Putin? Rather than do the smart thing and call the whole plan off, it seems possible to me that General Smallcock will resort to desperate measures (i.e., war crimes and international cyber attacks). This could get a lot worse very quickly, especially for Russia.

The Chinese foreign ministry has released a statement that the sovereignty of Ukraine must be respected. Even Xi sees this is going badly for Putin and is distancing himself.

And lets not forget the major of Kyiv. He is literally Rambo. A former worldclass boxer.

en.wikipedia.org

Vitali Klitschko

Vitali Volodymyrovych Klitschko (; Ukrainian: Віта́лій Володи́мирович Кличко́ [wiˈtɑl⁽ʲ⁾ij woloˈdɪmɪrowɪtʃ klɪtʃˈkɔ]; born 19 July 1971) is a Ukrainian politician and former professional boxer who serves as mayor of Kyiv and...

Open link

^This and umm...'s post above are spot on.

Good posts. Russia is already humiliated forever but this period is very dangerous. Putin could decide to just slaughter civilians to save face.

Keep in mind that of the republics in the USSR in WWII, Ukraine took casualties second only to Belarus. Russia soldiers are already losing heart, and soon will be asked to slaughter women and children? This will be the biggest David v. Goliath story in our lifetimes.

He has that option, but it doesn't serve his purpose of reintegrating Ukraine with Russia.

Sure, but the question is how rationally he will act. The whole invasion demonstrated a lack of clear thinking. If he's borderline delusion and embarrassed and desperate...

Well obviously they have some contact with the outside world. It isn't North Korea. I literally have hundreds of Russian and Ukrainian friends/acquaintances living both in the West and in Russia and Ukraine. Putin doesn't need every single Russian to buy into his propaganda. Everyone I know in the West is disgusted by this war. But I also know a lot of Russians(all live there) that are all in for Putin. Sort of like rabid Trumpers on steroids.

He just needs a powerful nationalistic base. As long as he has the 30-50% of the country AND most of the elite(including oligarchy) he'll be fine.

A separate observation: say what you will about his overall fitness for office, we're very, very fortunate that Joe Biden is president right now and not Donald Trump. Putin's biggest blunder may have been waiting until after Trump left office to invade.

The Biden administration spent the last year rebuilding relations with NATO, which Trump frequently belittled and even suggested the US pull out of. The unified response by western nations, lead by the United States, is the second-most important reason (behind the resolve of the Ukrainians) why this is going so poorly for Russia. If Trump were in charge, he would have resisted the notion of getting in Putin's way. Even today at CPAC, he has continued to praise Putin and belittle our NATO allies. Not one word of condemnation for the Putin (who he maintained is "very smart"), only blame and insults for his political opponents at home. If he were still in charge, the conversation in America would have devolved into useless right v. left bickering over whether Russia is wrong and whether Zelensky should have investigated Hunter Biden, instead of being almost uniformly pro-Ukraine. (I am heartened to see many in the GOP strongly opposed to Russia's actions, despite a few pundits like Carlson, Owens, and Greenwald still hinting towards maximum isolationism/abandoning support for Ukraine.) Given Germany's extreme reluctance to get more involved, I think it's unlikely that NATO could keep it together without the US on board. Fostering positive relationships with the EU is a good thing!

This insane Russian aggression should also be a wake up call for Congress (especially certain members of the GOP), which has been happy to accept campaign donations from foreign donors/russian oligarchs. These people should not be able to purchase influence in our political system. We need to pass legislation overturning the Citizens United decision ASAP, as a matter of national security.

Seems you don't even speak to your neighbours.

Maybe like most migrants he worked hard and doesn't waste money on rubbish, and like most migrants he still has family and friends in the mother country, which is always a cheap option for holiday anyway.

Damn these migrants, we have it so good

Russia has no public debt and massive reserves.

Noone outside the US and Europe has turned against them. If you don't want oil, the Chinese will buy it

Quiz: Who said this exactly 1 week ago?

You'd think someone who was so dramatically wrong about something so obvious - again - would maybe take a break from posting hot takes for a while.

Niiice. Always trying to control the narrative. Oh yes- thank god for Brandon’s brilliant moves! LOL

Per yesterday’s Harvard-Harris poll, 62% of Americans say - KNOW - that this wouldn’t have happened if Trump were POTUS. (Including 38% of Democrats!)

Another excellent post in this thread.

Putin had a number of successes in Trump's 4 years. He, with Trump's help, weakened NATO, and was made to look like an international superstar. He even had Trump fighting to have Russia included in NATO meetings. He killed critics without a word of condemnation from the US. He even put out hit lists on US soldiers without a word from Trump. He had most of the consequences from taking Crimea removed. Under Trump's rule he even has curried support from many Americans.

Putin was feeling infallible which just increased his greed for more power. He over reached this time. He has diminished his country and his own political standing. Having Trump trying to convince the world that Putin is brilliant and did something "wonderful" will only convince Trump cult members but no one else.

Putin may take over Ukraine but his battles for safe control of this country will last for a long time. Biden played this smart, not going to war but bringing the united force of NATO against Russian aggression.