rojo wrote:
Fat Slow Lurker wrote:
Realistically Hocker is about as good as Jakob was at the same age--which is a hell of an accomplishment in itself
You do realize they are both 20 right now?
I lol'd
rojo wrote:
Fat Slow Lurker wrote:
Realistically Hocker is about as good as Jakob was at the same age--which is a hell of an accomplishment in itself
You do realize they are both 20 right now?
I lol'd
THOUGHTSLEADER wrote:
Also the idea that a US runner with a pedestrian PB and a trademark kick could medal at the Olympics after outrunning Centrowitz in the Olympic Trials is totally absurd. Completely crazy and not something that could ever happen. Never.
Great post. In both races, Centro ran 57 for the third lap and 39 for final 400 and lost in a 3:35 race.
Centro's Trials Splits 2012 vs 2021
400 57.88 vs59.87,
800157.96 (60.08) vs159.23 (59.36)
1200 255.93 (57.97) vs 256.29 (57.03)
1500 335.84 (39.91) vs vs 335.34 (39.05)
THOUGHTSLEADER wrote:
Runningart2004 wrote:
The reigning Olympic Champs PR is from 2015 and "ran" 3:50 to win in '16.
The US team will struggle to get out of the semis. If anyone does it will be Centro bc experience.
The 1500m is a deep event. It's gonna depend on who's in their heat/semi.
Take a look at the best 1500m times since 2018.
Alan
Alan, the obsession with times is overblown. Cole Hocker dismantled numerous 3:33-3:36 guys all season by 2-4 seconds in championship races. Explain how that is possible if PBs are so important
None of the guys he beat are 3:30 guys.
Alan
tryingtobefast wrote:
4th place man craig engels beat wightman recently. Kerr and Wightman in similar fitness. Maybe wightman had bad day but i think centro and hocker could give the brits a run for their money.
No, this didn’t happen. They’ve raced once this year, indoors, and Wightman beat Craig by 2.01 seconds.
Watching Centro’s progress this season, I don’t think we should count him out in Tokyo. Tactically he was brilliant at the trials, he was perfectly positioned the entire race. He just didn’t have the closing gear to hold the lead over the final 100m YET. He got out kicked by potentially the greatest finisher in the world right now. If I were Centro, I would still be confident.
I think this was also a huge glimpse into Hocker’s potential. I was scared for him the entire race as he bounced around in the field like a ping pong ball but was able to overcome poor tactics in the final lap with pure ability.
"I say Hocker has a good chance of getting a medal, especially without Tim essentially guaranteeing a time trial like race. He has showcased an incredible kick on multiple occasions, and he has risen to the top of the US like no other miler at his age since Jim Ryun". (quote)
The comparisons with Ryun are ridiculous. Ryun was a world record holder at 19 and is still 2 seconds faster than anything Hocker has done over half a century later. That Hocker is currently at the top of the event in the US is a reflection on the lack of real depth in the event currently. (Yeah, Centro won in 3.50 over 5 years ago - and has done what since?)
Finance Bro wrote:
Armstronglivs wrote:
Ryun was the reigning world record holder before Mexico (but was defeated by mono and altitude). A monster talent. Wottle was the co-equal world record holder for the 800 in '72 and one of the fastest in the mile. They had to be favoured in their events. However promising, Hocker has shown none of that kind of class. Unless it's a lottery, the best tend to win. He isnt.
Hocker hasn't shown that kind of class, but he also hasn't been in a position or had a chance to show that kind of class. It wouldn't be unreasonable to think Hocker is in 3:31 or so 1500m shape right now in a time trial type of race. With that kind of fitness and with the devastating finishing speed he's shown already, in a 3:34 - 3:38 type of race at the Olympics he could very well end up on the podium. Not saying he's a favorite to medal, but I like his odds as much as anyone not named Ingebrigtsen.
A guy whose 3.31 at Monaco is his absolute best - which he still hasn't done - might make the final. But that wouldn't cut it against guys who can run 3.28. I can't see them waiting for the last 100m to give him a crack.
Armstronglivs wrote:
Finance Bro wrote:
Hocker hasn't shown that kind of class, but he also hasn't been in a position or had a chance to show that kind of class. It wouldn't be unreasonable to think Hocker is in 3:31 or so 1500m shape right now in a time trial type of race. With that kind of fitness and with the devastating finishing speed he's shown already, in a 3:34 - 3:38 type of race at the Olympics he could very well end up on the podium. Not saying he's a favorite to medal, but I like his odds as much as anyone not named Ingebrigtsen.
A guy whose 3.31 at Monaco is his absolute best - which he still hasn't done - might make the final. But that wouldn't cut it against guys who can run 3.28. I can't see them waiting for the last 100m to give him a crack.
The reason is this - at the Olympics you don't have 3-4 good runners who can kick well off 3.36 pace, like you did at the US trials. You have 10 guys who can kick off 3.32 pace. The standard is higher. Positioning will count for more.
There's a huge tendency to generalize from the 2016 final in this thread. 2016 was freakish. Most Olympic finals are won in sub-3:35 so everyone needs to prepare for a fast race, certainly faster than Hocker has run so far.
He should also get into an international race soon, even if he's not fully prepared. He needs to race against people with international experience. If he gets boxed like he did at the trials in an international race, against experienced athletes, he's going to fall. He needs to be prepared to be bullied out there
Cole Hocker is an immense talent, but to elevate him the way the headline of this thread is doing is a huge disservice to the guy.
Jakob is way more experienced from big races and is a proven championship performer. Yes, he failed to medal in Doha, likely because he doubled (1500/5000) as a teenager, but has still proven that he is able to deliver the goods when it counts the most. He won a European Championship double aged 17. Even it that is not a global championship it is still a high pressure situation and he handled it supremely well.
Who had even heard about Hocker three years ago when Jakob dominated during the Euros in Berlin 2018?
The facts of the matter are that Jakob was such an insane talent that he has known for years that he was likely to be a contender in global championships for years. He was running 80 miles a week and learning from his big brothers already 10 years ago.
Because of his background he is just much more likely to handle all the commotions of the Olympic Games than Cole Hocker.
I am far from sure that Jakob will win. I suspect there are several athletes who, like Cole Hocker, has better top end speed. If the Kenyans really do not select Timothy Cheruiyot to their team as he did not finish among the top three at their trials, it seems likely that Jakob will have to provide the pace himself if he wants a fast race. No matter how good Jakob is, it is a tall order for a 20 year old to time trial to Olympic Gold.
I am far from sure that Cole Hocker will not win. I think he is a great athlete with a superb mindset and a blistering kick.
Even so, these two athletes should not share the headline of this thread. Jakob is likely the main favourite for the event if the reigning World Champion will not be on the starting line. Hocker even if he surely is a contender would be very far from the bookies second favourite.
high school xc coach wrote:
"excellent post. this race shows that jakob is comfortable to set the pace for 3:30 or faster BY HIMSELF. He was 20 meters behind Tim and the pacers, leading the next pack, until around 700-800 to go. "
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As a matter of fact Jakob does not catch Timothy´s back before there is around 350m left!
Wightman is paced perfectly for 1400m but still couldn´t outsprint Timothy or Jakob.
Jakob was 10 years old, 10 years ago. Obviously he did not run 80 miles a week as a 10 year old!!
Jakob has the experience, even at his young age, in fast international races. Cole is a good young runner too.
supporterr wrote:
Jakob was 10 years old, 10 years ago. Obviously he did not run 80 miles a week as a 10 year old!!
I wouldn't be so sure.
Get real, Migelj and Armstronglivs!!!!!
Obviously Jakob did not run 80 miles a week as a 10 year old, what in heavens name do you base such claims on???
supporterr wrote:
Get real, Migelj and Armstronglivs!!!!!
Obviously Jakob did not run 80 miles a week as a 10 year old, what in heavens name do you base such claims on???
His ability to leap over tall buildings in a single bound?
supporterr wrote:
Get real, Migelj and Armstronglivs!!!!!
Obviously Jakob did not run 80 miles a week as a 10 year old, what in heavens name do you base such claims on???
Jakob has stated he ran 70 to 80 some weeks at that age. i would believe he had an 80 mile week. or two. but nothing like an average of 80 miles per week.
So, a third rate hack writing for Sportindepth, a website I have never even heard about, translates parts of a foreign language podcast and claims that Jakob said that he ran insane weekly distances as a kid, is your proof???
Again get real people!!!
supporterr wrote:
So, a third rate hack writing for Sportindepth, a website I have never even heard about, translates parts of a foreign language podcast and claims that Jakob said that he ran insane weekly distances as a kid, is your proof???
Again get real people!!!
maybe somebody from the site who is an expert in the native language can give the pod a listen and report back.