banned Pete wrote:...she is most likely a sub-2:30 marathoner...… when the stars align for good race conditions after a good training cycle, presuming she maintains focus and determination. It's not a Ventolin-style gimme, she has to actually run it. This thread won't run it for her... :-)
Jefe in the CO wrote:
Rupp is looking at her like he's seen a ghost.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EKVJUIa_xBIThere was no mention of sickness in her buildup but, if there was, she should have dropped, come back in a month, and run another marathon, i.e., Rupp and Prague. If there wasn't illness then she should wait until Spring.
Given that she didn't drop, they should point to a Spring race (not necessarily a marathon and definitely not London). Maybe Boston or something lower key where she could be close to the lead pack.
Why on earth was Gwen on stage with Galen. How many American women finished in front of her? Why wasn't Sarah Crouch on that stage with Galen?
This is nothing but a pathetic story! Gwen is a faker. The other heroes are being ignored. I can't believe that people buy into this stupidity.
yertesyd wrote:
Holy smokes - that's even rougher then. That's a lot of work. While I love my child dearly, going to work feels like a vacation in comparison.
Oh Stanley wrote:
Except that her kid doesn't go to daycare...
Give me a break. Using your kid as an excuse.
She should get a real job. Nike is Gwen's enabler.
banned Pete wrote:
On the topic of her marathon, though, here I have a better formed opinion. The marathon is a cruel mistress, and on race day absolutely everything has to go right in order to race to your capability, and your ultimate capability that day depends on your background (time in the sport, aerobic development, …) and the effectiveness of the marathon build up. If any single thing goes wrong, the day goes to $hit, and this can happen to anyone, novice to elite (although is maybe less likely to happen to an experienced elite runner).
My read of the info in this thread is that there's a better than 50-50 chance she just had a bad day (the positive split, off what should by any reasonable interpretation be a safe pace, confirms this to a large degree). There's no way to guess at real potential when somebody falls apart in the marathon.
My thinking is that, absent of strong evidence to the contrary (i.e. an even split 2:35 in good race conditions), she is most likely a sub-2:30 marathoner. I also think there's no good reason to think she can't improve on that with experience.
That was my thought too, the later splits was indicative of an obvious bonk/disaster/mess up/illness that could be fixed with more experience/long runs/race simulation. Whereas a slower run with even splits would actually be a worse sign
The splits are pretty odd, you don’t run 6 min per 5k slower than your 5k race pace at the end if you’re an elite
Gwen worked really hard to get to the top in triathlon. I guess her decision to switch backing to running was motivated by wanting a family and not enjoying the travelling involved with a ITU triathlon schedule. I guess he will be able to ride the hype until Tokyo then when she doesn't qualify she can switch to 70.3/IM racing for some more money.
yes but Shalane is a 4 time olympian (including a silver medal), she also won NY and has a 2:21 marathon PR.
I'm not saying she shouldn't or doesn't have the merits to do it - I was responding to the person who said she didn't talk.
Yes but wrote:
yes but Shalane is a 4 time olympian (including a silver medal), she also won NY and has a 2:21 marathon PR.
Oh my k wrote:
[quote]Silkeeeeeee wrote:
If she went out and branded all her online persona as a "tri to marathon transformation" she would get people cheering her on. Look what her hybris has landed herself into. She cracked under pressure and nothing good came from putting such an unrealistic goal out there so publicly.
Nothing good came out of it? Other than Nike sponsorship, media interest and view$$$ on her youtube videos? She wouldn't have generated 10% of the interest she's getting if she hadn't stated the goal of olympic gold.
I thought it was going to be interesting to see how things would go. If you consider Gwen as a runner she was coming into the running scene as a very low mileage runner. She said she did her first marathon (New York?) off of what 40 maybe 50 miles a wk. But she had a huge aerobic base (like someone who may crosstrain a ton). She finished that marathon in 241ish? So now she has been really lazer focused on MILEAGE and getting her mileage to 120mpw because that's what the women are running that she wants to run with. She was doing all sorts of ancillary things in order to support the huge up in volume. She ran Chicago (a much faster course than NY) 5 min faster than her personal best. I think Jeanne Mack ran her first marathon in around 2:46 at NY the same year? And finished Chicago in 2:38 the same year as Gwen...but check my facts I could be off...which is just an example that Chicago will give you a faster time with good training. My point Gwen did not improve much off of the argument/belief that if you can handle 120mpw that equals a 2:20-2:30 marathon. I think she spilled over. I think this was both a coaching and athlete error. In the coaches defense he gets runners that have slowly developed their running base over a few years. Also she posted a video of her doing a tempo with Shalane where she was dropped pretty hard. Like a freshman being dropped by the best senior on the team...This entire approach was like having a baby run before they've developed the ability to crawl.
Gwen has been great though in voicing situations that women postpartum face. There does not seem to be a lot of information out there on women running at a high level after postpartum. Gwen has made this information (YouTube videos with PTs specializing in these areas) more accessible for women. But other than that she needs to crawl-walk-and then RUN and fast.
High mileage isn't necessary to be a world class marathoner. Mary Keitany only does about 90 MPW, Robertson brothers max out at 110 MPW, Wilson Kipsang only does about 100 MPW. She should cut back on her mileae to 80-100 MPW and fill in the rest with cross training.
Exactly. Im not sure if the "bowerman babes" are the right fit...that's a choice she may want to reconsider. She needs to keep the right mindset and stop looking for patterns because every race/buildup is new...the marathon has a ton of variables to consider and it does not owe anybody anything.
I make my comment about considering BTC simply because is that a team/coach that has the time and experience of building a runner aspiring to be world class that's coming in with an aerobic base but from outside of running...do they have the experience knowledge and time to build them up from the ground and up? That's what is for Gwen to consider.
banned Pete wrote:
banned Pete wrote:...she is most likely a sub-2:30 marathoner...
… when the stars align for good race conditions after a good training cycle, presuming she maintains focus and determination. It's not a Ventolin-style gimme, she has to actually run it. This thread won't run it for her... :-)
I'm not seeing whatever it is that you see that makes you think she can run under 2:30. She did 32:20 at the US championships and 33:20 at Peachtree. The latter was under tougher conditions so both performances are right in line with 2:36. The pattern is pretty clear and she needs to stop with the excuses and own it. This is her ability level and it's not likely that she will ever be much better.
enough of the excuses wrote:I'm not seeing whatever it is that you see that makes you think she can run under 2:30.Of the times discussed in this thread, the 15:15 5000 and 71 min half are the best, and suggestive of her potential. Of course there's no guarantee, the marathon doesn't run itself... (this I know by experience)
Welll I’ve run 2:36 and it took me 3 years to get to 2:26. I’m only an experiment of 1. I think my max potential is 2:23 on a perfect day and course. I think she can get to 2:26-28 before the trials but that won’t make the team.
banned Pete wrote:
enough of the excuses wrote:I'm not seeing whatever it is that you see that makes you think she can run under 2:30.
Of the times discussed in this thread, the 15:15 5000 and 71 min half are the best, and suggestive of her potential. Of course there's no guarantee, the marathon doesn't run itself... (this I know by experience)
A 71 half projects to right around 2:30, but that's only a good predictor for athletes with sufficient endurance (and she hasn't shown herself to be that). That 5K is a better performance than any race she's done at a longer distance.
She's not going to medal in the Olympic Marathon no matter what.
The better move is to try for the 10K, to simply appear in the Olympics.
Related question: What second tier US female distance runner could become a millionaire by switching to ITU triathlon? If you can run 32 or 33 for 10k do you even need a swimming background? Or can you just take a few classes and rely on your aerobic base? If I were someone like Becky Wade I'd be looking seriously at getting a bike and getting in the pool. Obviously the competition's thin and the potential rewards are way bigger than running.
Drunk Kavanaugh wrote:
Related question: What second tier US female distance runner could become a millionaire by switching to ITU triathlon? If you can run 32 or 33 for 10k do you even need a swimming background? Or can you just take a few classes and rely on your aerobic base? If I were someone like Becky Wade I'd be looking seriously at getting a bike and getting in the pool. Obviously the competition's thin and the potential rewards are way bigger than running.
Your casual ignorance about triathlon is impressive. Are you aware the Jorgensen was a D1 all-American in XC and track, and very close to a Nationals qualifier in swimming at Wisconsin? You need to be at a swimming level competitive with very good D1 collegiate swimmers to be successful in ITU triathlon. If you think someone can just casually pick that up, then you are even more clueless than Jorgensen was about instant marathon success.
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