OMG. America's newest star has arrived!! True frosh Donavan Brazier runs 1:45.93 in first-ever collegiate 800!!

Ironside,

I will not give many details besides this...I know how many races he will run this year even assuming he makes an NCAA final in and out and runs 4x4s.

It will not be even 30. 45 is laughable to those who know his schedule. The A&M XC team is doing fine without him. Donavan is such a good teammate and friend that your post is insulting. he will do anything for his team. stop causing a ruckus. he is just fine

345elmore wrote:

Nigel Amos was a junior (18 yrs 147 days old) when he ran 1.41.73 in London, 2012.

And Kitum was 17 (9 months younger than Amos) and ran 1:42.53; pretty sure that's still a junior.

Granted, both of them were rabbited quite nicely in that race . . .

ironside wrote:

just me: give some context. Are you a sibling/Texas A &M Coach/Texas A & M teammate of Brazier? If you are simply looking at varsity results for Texas A & M XC fall 2015, check JV results before you go out on a limb and state he didn't run XC, 2015. Because Brazier may or may not have run XC as a freshman doesn't mean Texas A & M will not have Brazier run XC in future seasons. I cannot image Texas A&M has enough good (8 & 10)K XC men so they do not need a sub-4:07 miler on the XC team.

Dude, the article stated he specifically chose Texas A&M so that he would not need to run cross country. We also know he ran a 600m time trial in November which was obviously not for cross country. You have no idea what you're talking about and aren't even reading what's right in front of you.

ventolin^3 wrote:

Some cursory analysis :

51+ / 54+ meant he went out too fast & would have been looking at at least 0.5s quicker with slower opener

That gets him to 1'45.4

Then, no pacing to bell offers at least 0.4s, getting him down to 1'45.0 with pacing

This was indoor & at this level should be ~ 1.75s faster outdoors

That gets his current shape at

~ 1'43-low

That is in January whilst just 1/2 way thru his winter training & virtually no speedwork as no one does speedwork in January

I woud suggest that as long as he doesn't get burnt out, 1'42+ outdoors is a given & it is probably going to be nearer low-end & kid is still 18y !!!

Gray's 1'42.59AR should definitely go this year

seen the vid now

i have had the privilege to have seen ~ 80% of all the < 1'45i ever either on terrestrial or satellite & 9 of the top-10 live at the the time on those media

only Kip ever ran a fast 800i solo like the kid

i can tell you right now, the kid is already in 1'42+ shape outdoors

that means today not in some months or even years

i mean right now

i have seen his splits & they are wild :

25.21, 26.40, 26.58, 27.76

too fast, too slow, too fast & obviously too slow

his 400s were : 51.61 / 54.34

he lost ~ 0.25s there & the discrepancy between the other splits which shoud have a smooth ~ 0.5s deceleration easily adds another 1/2s to it

so my above 0.5s reduction for big +ve splits for the 400s shoud be more like 0.75+s

that gets his current "my best estimate" outdoor 800 as

~ 1'42-high

if i had to put hard $$$ on it, i'd say about 1'42.8/1'42.9

apparently he has done no speedwork yet ( as i suggested ) & not even enough endurance yet as head-coach said :

“Our training on the track has not been very specific to this point,” Henry said. “I think once he gets into a situation where he’s really running some pace work on the track, he’s going to have a better handle on what he can do…

“I really don’t think he’s in great shape yet. I think he’s in pretty good shape, but he’s not in great shape. We haven’t done enough work for him to be in great shape…most of the stuff that we’ve done is all volume.”

that doesn't indicate any serious speedwork yet & probably not enough mileage yet, which shoud be the case for a raw kid

as long as the extra work doesn't ruin him, this year, i definitely expect his shape to improve at least by a second by peak

he is capable of 1'41-high this year as long as no burn-out/injury

I'd guess he can run 1:43 outdoors barring injury etc. But, I think it might be hard to do it in an NCAA race.

Mike in LA wrote:

345elmore wrote:

Nigel Amos was a junior (18 yrs 147 days old) when he ran 1.41.73 in London, 2012.

And Kitum was 17 (9 months younger than Amos) and ran 1:42.53; pretty sure that's still a junior.

Granted, both of them were rabbited quite nicely in that race . . .

If by "rabbited", you mean "doped", then yes.

If he can open with 1:45 off of volume and no race specific work, adding "speed work" is going to increase injury risk. He's doing fine with his current program. Adding in speed along with more races may be too much.

ventolin^3 wrote:

he is capable of 1'41-high this year

The only "high", as usual, is YOU, ventolin (do you write yourself opioid scripts?)

(but seriously, of course he is capable of faster than his current 1:45.9, but how much more....who knows? Maybe he does better off of very low volume/quality training. Not everyone gets a lot better with more quality and more quantity and more races.

I'd be pretty psyched to seem him run 1:44 outdoors. 1:41? once again, vent has to get carried away, and hope he is right, and declared a genius, while everyone forgets the 2000 other times he predicted something outrageously optimistic and was wrong.

As others pointed out, German ran very much the same quality of a race in the mile (1:45.9 being only slightly better than 3:55.0, but for young kids, it's easier to run a more eye popping time in the 800 compared to the mile) as an 18 yo frosh. He's only run faster a couple time (once?) Let's hope this one turns out different)

do some reading

head coach :

like i said :

no speedwork yet

probably not enough mileage either

as for "variables", where on earth did you seem me post anything about weather/wind ???

marlon harewood wrote:Beyond that and we're on shaky ground; Johnny Gray is #16 all time for goodness sake

what on earth does gray's position on a list or merits or age at the time have to do with this kid ?

are they conjoined in some way or some law of the universe saying he can't "be number 15 this year" ??

you do know soulemain in this vid ran an outrageous ~ 8.5m extra wide on bends with little drafting & in an ideal race tight in lane-1 shouda run

~ 1'41.5

he is a primary 1500 runner !!!

that will teach you an important lesson :

800m all-time list is nonsense & there are some seriously under-valued runs in it, starting with top-2 all-timers

if the kid runs a huge 800 this year, it is nothing that shoud be unexpected

Ventolin, he was referring to you saying he Is IN 1:42 shape if he was outdoors?

You are giving away three seconds if he ran today outdoors? It shows how little you really know.

Let me ask you something, have you even been to any of these indoor speedways , EVER?

Assuming same levels of fitness on today's indoor tracks you can almost run as fast as average to good conditions outdoors in events of 800 and up. I said ALMOST

There is no wind, so no resistance, the banking and the "give back

are astounding helpers as well.

and do not get going on saying things like :

drivel

idiot , dumb

your absurd calculations are insane. And every guy you have ever handicapped has them running faster than they did. You are what you run, most guys analyzed have run the event enough to see that. Racing always has a variable to it, you just

pass that off as non optimal splits, what lane guys run in...drafting vs. not etc etc.

lol, classic ventolin

ventolin, you are misinterpreting the coach here. He says they haven't done too much 800 specific work yet. That doesn't mean they haven't worked on pure speed. This is normal for the season plan of an 800 runner. They do pure speed and endurance in base phase and work towards specific 800 endurance later on in the season. There's a good ppt presentation on the web from Vig or some other coach on the season plan for 800 training. You could probably also just glean this from the sub 1:50 thread. None of this is revolutionary - this is normal 800 training.

wow !

thanks for telling me

according to his coach, no serious speedwork yet or enough mileage

i've read a lot of workouts

i reckon i have a good idea

no

it means endurance

there is no need to do any serious speedwork in january

speed gets tacked on as season develops

you can develop speed mid-season, not so much endurance

no

not specific sprint-training

most everything endurance-developing this early in year

no

you work from endurance -> less endurance + little speed -> leastest endurance + mostest speed

your endurance has been banked in winter & you can draw upon most of it for summer

the speed wins you the tactical races or gets you more on 1st lap in a tt

again this nonsensical obsession with times &/or longevity

the record is 1'42.59

go watch this race :

1'42.65 off outrageous opening with a suicidal, crazy wabbit

Gray is probably the last guy to tell you, but that race with a sensible pacer to bell & good drafting wouda been

~ 1'41-high

don't get too excited about 1'42.59AR

the man himself was in hugely better shape in zurich-'88

On the front page interview, the coach mentions he only does mileage in the 20s. I'm not familiar with pure 800m training...is that low compared to 800m standards? It seems very low.

Direct quote from front page:

"Despite getting down to 1:47.55 in June (making him the fourth-fastest U.S. high schooler of all-time), Brazier still felt he had “untapped potential” upon arriving in College Station, and a few months of working with Francique (himself a 44.47 man at 400) have brought that potential out. Francique has taken a speed-oriented approach with Brazier, dropping his weekly mileage into the 20s (Brazier will do some 25- to 30-minute runs to boost his aerobic base but nothing much longer than that). So far, Brazier’s main workouts have consisted of fartleks of 60- and 90-second intervals on the grass near the Aggies’ outdoor track. He trains with the team’s 800 group, including the Hernandez brothers, Efrain (1:50.26 pb) and Hector (1:47.73 pb)."

How many races did Cruz run in 1984, the season he won NCAA 800m and 1500m? Then, that same season, he went on to win Olympic gold in the 800m and even later in the season he established an Oregon 800m record of 1.41.77.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L2tHUPdjnnw

This kid is similar to Cruz in that he's good young and can run 400m, 800, and 1500m/mile on 800m training.

Smart move not having him run cross-country. It appears he's in good hands. It's exciting for US track to have a young up-and-coming star in the middle distances.

ventolin^3 wrote:

I am insane.

This guy is ridiculously deluded/unintelligent. It's disturbing to see how out-of-touch people can get.

His coach said he's doing 20 miles a week and training with a 44. 400m man, If you don't think he's at least doing 50 second pace on some of his intervals you're a fool.

Vent. your statements reveal a sophomoric understanding of 800m running. There are two approaches to training for the 800m. 400m/800m or 800m/1500m. Clearly, this kid is doing 400m/800m type training including the gym work.

Take a look at what Rudisha did during his winter build up for the London Olympics. He spent it in Oz working on his 400m.

yes

i reckon he is currently in

~ 1'42.8 / 1'42.9

yes

learn some math

1'45.9

- 0.4s for solo -> 1'45.5 if paced for 200+m to bell

- 0.75+ for wild splits compared to smooth 0.5s decelerating 200s with 2s +ve splits for 200 ->< 1'43

i call it current shape of

~ 1'42.8 / 1'42.9

as the upper limit of " < " is not easy to estimate

no

you clearly are clueless about basic analysis

just watched some of 3 games in stadium

i don't bother going to indoors

it's nonsense

how do you figure aman's current indoor best when he was really trying for fast time, with his later 1'42.37pb ???

how are they "almost same" ???

get a clue :

the difference between indoors/outdoors for same flat-out/paced-to-bell effort at elite level for 800 is

~ 1.75s

laughable

aman has 1'42.37 & he really likes indoors - how many indoor golds now ?

he really wanted to run a 1'43 indoors & made some serious efforts but look at his pb

you can't analyse

see basic analysis above

you seem not to have neurone to even comprehend basic logic

they are entitled to faster unless mickey-mouse tracks, unknown meets & no auto-timing for post-'70

nonsense

that is just statistical list assessment

that is nonsense already as some of all-time greats ran on dirt : elliott/snell/Ryun/smith/Hayes...

most ole observers reckon Hayes 10.06 on chewed-up dirt in the lane 1 ruined by 20k walk earlier wouda been ~ 9.7+ on the newer synthetic tracks of '68 onwards

a time likely not beaten until Bolt in peking-'08

does Hayes '64 clocking of 10.06 still rank accurately as assessment of his ability on all-time list as your nonsensical "all he ran" ???

no

you clearly haven't

apart from hayes above,

- Kip's 1'41.24WR off suicidal 23.0 / 48.3 shouda been off 24-low / 49.3+ ~ 1'40-low

- Rudy's 1'40.91WR off rounds, solo run with near suicidal 23.4 split, shouda also been, for a fully-rested, paced to bell effort of 24-low / 49.3+ ~ 1'40-low

learn to think

you try to work out optimal time

that is a big function of forums