Genzebe Dibaba 3:55.17 indoor WR

I don't get the mathematics behind why so many say they are shocked at a WR record after a "pedestrian" start of only 2:09 after 800.

Let's say she continues the same "pedestrian" pace another 300m. This puts here at 1100m in 2:57.375. If we think she ran such a pedestrian pace for 1100m, are we really shocked if she closes in 58s for the last 400?

But it looks like the real splits put her at 2:55, closing the last 400m in 60s -- something even less amazing.

I'm sorry but I don't see anything about the split times that scream drugs, especially if we can credibly characterize 2:09 as slow, or "pedestrian". The range seems too narrow -- 32s/lap (for 4 laps) is "pedestrian", yet 30s/lap (for 3.5 laps, after a pedestrian start), is unbelievable, only explainable by external support.

rekrunner wrote:

I'm sorry but I don't see anything about the split times that scream drugs, especially if we can credibly characterize 2:09 as slow, or "pedestrian". The range seems too narrow -- 32s/lap (for 4 laps) is "pedestrian", yet 30s/lap (for 3.5 laps, after a pedestrian start), is unbelievable, only explainable by external support.

I wouldn't characterize 2:09 as pedestrian. That's about... 4:01i 1500m pace? Most people look at it simply: she shattered a doped record. She hasn't run close to this indoors. She didn't look tired afterwards.

conk wrote:

she shattered a doped record.

Vanja Perisic ran 2:06.82 while using CERA. What does that tell you about women who run 7 or 8 seconds faster than that?

2:09 is pedestrian...if 3:55 is your absolute max. But she is in shape to run substantially faster. In that moment she was fit enough to break the WR if she had competition.

Well many others did, and used that characterization as the basis for their suspicion.3:58 seems like a weak record, even for indoors. If she shatters the outdoor record by the same margin, that might be another story. Even then, many factors still separate the Ethiopian performances from the Chinese and Russian performances.

conk wrote:

rekrunner wrote:

I'm sorry but I don't see anything about the split times that scream drugs, especially if we can credibly characterize 2:09 as slow, or "pedestrian". The range seems too narrow -- 32s/lap (for 4 laps) is "pedestrian", yet 30s/lap (for 3.5 laps, after a pedestrian start), is unbelievable, only explainable by external support.

I wouldn't characterize 2:09 as pedestrian. That's about... 4:01i 1500m pace? Most people look at it simply: she shattered a doped record. She hasn't run close to this indoors. She didn't look tired afterwards.

toney the tiger wrote:

http://www.letsrun.com/forum/flat_read.php?thread=5282689&page=0

mo may be in as fast as 3'30 shape

i don't think asbel is in top shape & leo is not a 3'30 guy currently ( maya been close last year )

the fastest 2 prelim estimate i can envisage for him currently are

50.5 / 1'46.7 ->

3'29.75

4'45.59

7'20.88

12'41.06

26'33.37

to

50.0 / 1'45.9 ->

3'28.59 !!!

4'44.25

7'19.31

12'39.37

26'32.48

So we've got from 3:28 - 3:30 (maybe) and completely wrong on Asbel

As I'm sure Mo's pacing was far from ideal what does that means the actual line of fit should have been ?

I'm still not sure how a runner can do that time of a 50 secs 400m without EPO its the equivilant of 4:00 1500m off approx 58 second pace - I'm sure some muppet wuill now come on saying they have done just that but if they put any real effort into the 400m and did not do it on a day when they have run 3 other events I'm sure they would be faster

Interesting! let's assume she runs 8:18. Still pedestrian

compared to Wang's 8:06. Just shows that Dibabi is clean.

Jeff Wigand wrote:

conk wrote:

she shattered a doped record.

Vanja Perisic ran 2:06.82 while using CERA. What does that tell you about women who run 7 or 8 seconds faster than that?

no she didn't she ran a 2-00 minute on CERA

just sayin wrote:

no she didn't

Yes she did.

She was eliminated in the rounds of the 800m at the Olympics in Beijing running 2:06.82. She was tested in Beijing and tested positive for CERA. Those are the facts as reported by WADA, the IOC and everyone else.

Jeff Wigand wrote:

just sayin wrote:

no she didn't

Yes she did.

She was eliminated in the rounds of the 800m at the Olympics in Beijing running 2:06.82. She was tested in Beijing and tested positive for CERA. Those are the facts as reported by WADA, the IOC and everyone else.

Why did you ignore the 2:00 she ran in the same season? You made it sound like 2:06 was her best time of the year.

Exactly, Ventolin basically said he "MAY" run 3:30, and then also gave a 3:28 mid, and a 3:29 high as possible scenarios in a perfect world. There isn't anything that impressive there. He also got Kiprop completely wrong, so all his self important gesturing is really unwarranted.

You're wrong about Farah's pacing Imo. It was much better than most of the top guys have had when setting their fastest times. He had the sense to hold back on first lap and went through in 55 something and then his next 2 laps were both in the 56's, followed by a 55 last lap; that is pretty spot on if you want to break 3:30.

That track also seems to produce about a second faster than what the guys there usually get on other tracks.

The planets aligned for Mo that day. Whether he did get some help from some "grey" area medication, I strongly doubt he will get near that time ever again.

the "smattering" of Ethiopian runners contributing to the drop in WR's in distance running continues. But remember, it's just a "smattering."

http://www.letsrun.com/forum/flat_read.php?thread=3473257&page=1

because i found it hard to believe what the calculator said was possible

it said he coud go 3'28 & that shocked even me, so i offered a "conservative" upper limit of 3'30

no

not if you bothered to plug-in 49-mid/high / 26'30 into a predictor software

get a clue

if you'd bothered to follow asbel's runs prior to monaco they had been poor with nothing to suggest anything great upcoming

only after the race did he say that he'd targeted monaco & gone back to camp to specifically prepare for it

none of this info was in public domain until post-race interview/media

no

it was too fast at 55-flat for a then 3'33.9pb guy

he then ran virtually all of a race in a vacuum with no designated pacer for "2nd pack" & even ran virtually 1 stretch alone out in lane 2 !!

he got very little effective drafting & it was mostly a solo run from gun-to-tape with some brief drafting from ndiku on last lap & most of that was lost as he had to run wide to get past him

if he'd re-run that race with specific pacers for him & ideal pace, he wouda been looking at

3'27-high/3'28-flat

eh ???

1st doha was quickest track, then there's always ole favourite of rieti, them came "super-fast" london, then moscow was quick

make up your mind !!!

no

thorough review of the race showed he got no breaks at all

he got thrown into a suicidally starting race & only his great experience & superlative racing brain allowed him to eke out a 3'28 with virtually no effective drafting

he shouda been looking at 1s quicker if that race had been set up for him & he couda got some smooth pacing to bell in 55-mid

Whether he did get some help from some "grey" area medication, I strongly doubt he will get near that time ever again.[/quote]

rekrunner wrote:I don't get the mathematics behind why so many say they are shocked at a WR record after a "pedestrian" start of only 2:09 after 800

it is an incredible/shocking run

not only did she break the indoor record, but also the absolute non-chinese/non-ruskie wr

that was usually ascribed to boulmerka's '92 gold run ( albeit i'm not too sure she was any "cleaner" than the chinese/ruskies ) :

in her 3'55.30, she split 2'05-low & was superbly drafted to just 250 out

diby was at ~ 2'09, ran last 700 solo & still beat her clocking !!!

I'm sorry but I don't see anything about the split times that scream drugs, especially if we can credibly characterize 2:09 as slow, or "pedestrian"

no one with a clue is calling drugs

however, this doesn't abrogate the "shocking" aspect

i expected her big sista/defar to have run close to this 5 or 6y ago when in their 5k/10k prime ( not this fast though - they were good for 3'52/3'53 off 5k/10k training, this gal coud go 3'49 in her current shape !!! )

[quote]ventolin^3 wrote:

[quote]

because i found it hard to believe what the calculator said was possible

it said he coud go 3'28 & that shocked even me, so i offered a "conservative" upper limit of 3'30

[quote]

reminds me of another great mathematician dirac

when he came up with his famous equation

which suggested the existence of antimatter

he found it hard to believe what the equation said was possible

ukathleticscoach wrote:As I'm sure Mo's pacing was far from ideal what does that means the actual line of fit should have been ?

it was far from ideal & he hardly received any drafting worth mentioning

i still don't think he was quicker than ~ 26'30 shape that day but he probably was more like 49-high open 400 speed that day - i was hesitant to offer anything better than 50-flat as that is already hugely faster than i believe geb or the kennster EVER were - mo wouda absolutely slaughtered them in last lap of a slow 3, 5 or 10k

the 3 nearest lines of fit for purely academic interest are :

49.8 / 1'45.6 ->3'28.20 , 4'43.83 , 7'18.91 !!! , 12'39.14

49.7 / 1'45.4 ->3'27.83 !! , 4'43.33 , 7'18.16 !!! , 12'37.98

49.6 / 1'45.3 ->3'27.81 !! , 4'43.41 , 7'18.50 !!! , 12'38.92

i only do lines of fit for 400/800 to 0.1s accuracy, because if i did them to 0.05s, i'd have to do dozens more, which is not worth the time or effort

if you are interested in working out your own lines of fit, spend the quid & have fun !

suffice to say, the main opportunity i think mo lost last year was demolition of komen's wr

he won't get that narrow window of opportunity again if going up to M...

just sayin wrote:

[quote]ventolin^3 wrote:

[quote]

because i found it hard to believe what the calculator said was possible

it said he coud go 3'28 & that shocked even me, so i offered a "conservative" upper limit of 3'30

[quote]

reminds me of another great mathematician dirac

when he came up with his famous equation

which suggested the existence of antimatter

he found it hard to believe what the equation said was possible

Really Ventolin. Do you see yourself as a 'great mathematician' like Dirac?

Hilarious. The ego has landed.

The video of the race and the reported times for the PM lead to the following intermediate times for Genzebe Dibaba:

100m: 15,4

200m: 30,6

400m: 1:02,5

500m: 1:18,8

600m: 1:35,3

800m: 2:09,1

900m: 2:24,6

1000m: 2:40,2

1100m: 2:55,3

1200m: 3:10,5

1300m: 3:25,3

1400m: 3:40,1

1500m: 3:55,17

This gives the following 100m (200m where not available) segments:

15,4 - 15,2 - 31,9 - 16,3 - 16,5 - 33,8 - 15,5 - 15,6 - 15,1 - 15,2 - 14,8 - 14,8 - 15,1

I think it was an almost perfect race for Dibaba. She always was very close to the PM (maybe until 850m) and ran always close to the curb; she was not hindered (as far as to see on the video) in any part of the race. Maybe sligthly faster middle part of the race would have resultet in an even better result, but this really just can be very few tenths. But - as said - I think it was an almost perfect race. Wonderful performance!

Very interesting what she can do in Stockholm. Maybe another World Record? Maybe by another big margin?

i have no idea how you can claim the pacing was good

she split 2'09.1 at 800 which is 4'02 pace !!!

in contrast, bolmerka split 2'05-low in her 3'55 which is virtually spot on for 3'55, albeit her initial 400 was too quick

at even-pace, dibaba musta been looking at ~ 3'53