BF
Yeah, I've rethought that ratio down to about 85%/15% already. Think about the 30:30-31:30 guys on your team in college, and in your conference, and from your area, etc. How many of them have tried to make it in the marathon? And how many have run 2:22? [Side question - have any Buffalo alum (sic) other than Reifsynder run under 2:22?]
In fact there is a guy I know that ran 2:22:xx at Rocket City this month that is right about 31 minutes for 10K (plus or minus 20 seconds). But he certainly didn't crap it out - he's been working on it diligently for years.
I guess my main point is that 2:22 isn't automatic/guaranteed for 31 minute guys as long as they do the miles.
I feel sympathy for the guy (Sehon) remembering that "running flexibility" doesn't get any better than while in college. But wait until even later. If he gets a wife, two kids, a couple of dogs, $200K mortgage, $25K in car payments, etc...it gets harder and harder to get out for a post-work run. Yet many can still keep the running/racing a priority with all this going on.