Allow a man to dream, all he needs to do to run a 1:37.9 is run a 3:24 1500 and 43 400... shii that might be hard
If that's another kid, I would say that's all fantasy, but Lutkenhaus is something else, I wouldn't rule that out really. I mean, if Rudisha had had access to pacing light, bicarbs and super shoes without having to do rounds, he would've run 1:39, probably 1:38. And Lutkenhaus seems to be even more talented. Who else has run 1:42 at 16 (or even sub 1:45 for that matter)?
Probably 1:38 is wild, though I do agree on 1:39 high with pacers + bicarb
Allow a man to dream, all he needs to do to run a 1:37.9 is run a 3:24 1500 and 43 400... shii that might be hard
If that's another kid, I would say that's all fantasy, but Lutkenhaus is something else, I wouldn't rule that out really. I mean, if Rudisha had had access to pacing light, bicarbs and super shoes without having to do rounds, he would've run 1:39, probably 1:38. And Lutkenhaus seems to be even more talented. Who else has run 1:42 at 16 (or even sub 1:45 for that matter)?
I'm delusional enough to think there's a possibility of a possibility of it happening.
So he's only just discovered these things now? He was probably running on dirt, with Snell's shoes, and quaffing Cokes. I would bet there is every form of modern technology behind his performances, as with most top athletes today.
Idk, seems like you are projecting as usual. We are comparing to Coe not Snell and my point was they were probably both wearing very light spikes. He didn’t do it on the Paris/Tokyo tracks. The point is to not diminish Coe but it’s also kinda crazy you can’t see the difference between people saying Cooper could improve 1-1.5s without jumping to 2s. Sebastian Coe was an 8/15 athlete with plus speed. Cooper it sure seems like 4/8 athlete with plus endurance. He hasn’t competed at 400 as a pro because he’s 17 lol. He did run the 600 indoors and he will likely run the 400 outdoors I’d think . Was he supposed to double last year at USAs? Or at USA Indoors.
He virtually never races the distance. If it was within his wheelhouse he would, and he would have shown it was one of his best distances earlier. You seem to find it difficult to see that he is an 800 specialist, and even an exceptional one - like Rudisha and Kipketer were. They were never going to be 400 guys or 1500 runners. But then, we also see that 400 runners are also mainly specialists. They are long sprinters, not md runners. He's a md runner. His strength and endurance is superior to his speed - like Snell. That's why he is an 800 specialist.
I didn't say he's maxed-out, only that he doesn't have another 2 seconds in him over the 400. The simple point you overlook is that if he genuinely had 400 speed he would have competed in the event - he would have doubled, as some 800 runners do. He hasn't. He won't. Your estimates of what you think he could do over the distance remains conjecture only. But so far we haven't seen any real 200 or 400 speed. He's still looking like an 800 specialist.
We saw 46.3 on a double at age 16, and he’s improved very much as a runner since. That doesn’t mean I think he’ll become world class but it’s possible he will be quite competitive. Doubling in the 400/800 in near impossible in the US, but were he coming from a weaker country I wouldn’t doubt him being considered for a 4x400 one day.
That's a very different issue. Sure, he would run the 400 relay one day - if he came from Sri Lanka. Although he has improved a lot over the 800 much of that can be attributed to improvements in his speed endurance. That isn't necessarily going to be matched by improvements in top end speed. So far there are no indications of that other than his coach suggesting one day he could run 44-high. But coaches say things. Like Kersee about Mu. Lutkenhaus may have hit his speed ceiling or be close to it. When he runs 21-flat FAT or better I will change my mind.
He virtually never races the distance. If it was within his wheelhouse he would, and he would have shown it was one of his best distances earlier. You seem to find it difficult to see that he is an 800 specialist, and even an exceptional one - like Rudisha and Kipketer were. They were never going to be 400 guys or 1500 runners. But then, we also see that 400 runners are also mainly specialists. They are long sprinters, not md runners. He's a md runner. His strength and endurance is superior to his speed - like Snell. That's why he is an 800 specialist.
He raced it at the Texas State Meet as a soph and while I can’t find non paywalled stats for it, he raced it 12 times as a freshman. With Texas’ qualifying system who even knows but not “virtually never.” Athletes specialize at the pro level but some like Korir and probably Lutkenhaus will dabble, no matter how many nonsensical comps you make to 8-15 guys with zero evidence to back it up. You have literally no proof to him being strength-based, just give it up.
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He virtually never races the distance. If it was within his wheelhouse he would, and he would have shown it was one of his best distances earlier. You seem to find it difficult to see that he is an 800 specialist, and even an exceptional one - like Rudisha and Kipketer were. They were never going to be 400 guys or 1500 runners. But then, we also see that 400 runners are also mainly specialists. They are long sprinters, not md runners. He's a md runner. His strength and endurance is superior to his speed - like Snell. That's why he is an 800 specialist.
He raced it at the Texas State Meet as a soph and while I can’t find non paywalled stats for it, he raced it 12 times as a freshman. With Texas’ qualifying system who even knows but not “virtually never.” Athletes specialize at the pro level but some like Korir and probably Lutkenhaus will dabble, no matter how many nonsensical comps you make to 8-15 guys with zero evidence to back it up. You have literally no proof to him being strength-based, just give it up.
You have no proof he is as fast as you and others claim here. We know for a fact that he isn't as fast as Tom Courtney, who ran 21 flat in 1956, or Kerr or Crothers who ran the same in the early '60s - or his coach would have said so. You might give it up.
Also, runners who "dabble" in events do so because it isn't their best event. So it will be if he "dabbles" in the 400.
What you distance guys don't get is the difference between being moderately fast for a md runner and having serious sprint speed. To put it in perspective, if he ran a full second and a half faster with his flying 200 - a time of 20.3 - that only makes him as fast as Tom Courtney in the '50s, who ran 21-flat out of blocks. He was the world half mile record holder and '56 Olympic 800 champion. Lutkenhaus is not amongst the faster athletes who have run his event; that's why I maintain he's more a strength guy.
Idk, seems like you are projecting as usual. We are comparing to Coe not Snell and my point was they were probably both wearing very light spikes. He didn’t do it on the Paris/Tokyo tracks. The point is to not diminish Coe but it’s also kinda crazy you can’t see the difference between people saying Cooper could improve 1-1.5s without jumping to 2s. Sebastian Coe was an 8/15 athlete with plus speed. Cooper it sure seems like 4/8 athlete with plus endurance. He hasn’t competed at 400 as a pro because he’s 17 lol. He did run the 600 indoors and he will likely run the 400 outdoors I’d think . Was he supposed to double last year at USAs? Or at USA Indoors.
He virtually never races the distance. If it was within his wheelhouse he would, and he would have shown it was one of his best distances earlier. You seem to find it difficult to see that he is an 800 specialist, and even an exceptional one - like Rudisha and Kipketer were. They were never going to be 400 guys or 1500 runners. But then, we also see that 400 runners are also mainly specialists. They are long sprinters, not md runners. He's a md runner. His strength and endurance is superior to his speed - like Snell. That's why he is an 800 specialist.
You keep saying he's a distance specialist, yet his best overdistance time is a 4:06 mile (in a time trialed race to run sub 4, not tactical). You know how much faster 800/1500 guys who ran 1:42 are in the mile? Nearly 20 seconds. Josh Hoey ran 3:29 which converts to 3:46. The fastest 400/800 guys are only 2 seconds haster than him in the 400. Even if you scale up to 1600 by doing 2*4 you get 8 seconds. His 400 is clearly way better than his mile at this time.
He virtually never races the distance. If it was within his wheelhouse he would, and he would have shown it was one of his best distances earlier. You seem to find it difficult to see that he is an 800 specialist, and even an exceptional one - like Rudisha and Kipketer were. They were never going to be 400 guys or 1500 runners. But then, we also see that 400 runners are also mainly specialists. They are long sprinters, not md runners. He's a md runner. His strength and endurance is superior to his speed - like Snell. That's why he is an 800 specialist.
You keep saying he's a distance specialist, yet his best overdistance time is a 4:06 mile (in a time trialed race to run sub 4, not tactical). You know how much faster 800/1500 guys who ran 1:42 are in the mile? Nearly 20 seconds. Josh Hoey ran 3:29 which converts to 3:46. The fastest 400/800 guys are only 2 seconds haster than him in the 400. Even if you scale up to 1600 by doing 2*4 you get 8 seconds. His 400 is clearly way better than his mile at this time.
Sorry I meant you keep saying his strength is better than his speed.
What you distance guys don't get is the difference between being moderately fast for a md runner and having serious sprint speed. To put it in perspective, if he ran a full second and a half faster with his flying 200 - a time of 20.3 - that only makes him as fast as Tom Courtney in the '50s, who ran 21-flat out of blocks. He was the world half mile record holder and '56 Olympic 800 champion. Lutkenhaus is not amongst the faster athletes who have run his event; that's why I maintain he's more a strength guy.
46.3 as the second race of a double, at 16, is indeed a display of serious speed for an 800m runner. Most 800m runners are not verifiably that fast over one lap. Coe certainly wasn’t, no matter how you try to spin his relay races, where Cooper had a 45.3 relay leg as the last part of a triple for his day’s work. Tom Courtney was six to eight years older than Cooper when he ran his best sprint times. You know this but will once again deny it all. Like others pointed out, Cooper’s ability disturbs you. Greatly. You can’t give him credit and are terribly afraid the youngster will continue to improve. Your need to always be a contrarian adds to the mess. 🤔
The kid is built like a sprinter/mid-d runner. He's 6'1" and already pretty solid at only 17 years old. He'll likely add more muscle as his training goes on.
I'm sure he'll run some fast 1500s but his genetics look like he's more suited to the 4/8 rather than 8/15.
He’s going to run sub 1:40 and 3:28 low. 1500 not nearly as good as his 800 but still world class. 2:15 in the thon at age 35
Last year, he was maybe 1:42/3:42. How does he go from there to 1:40/3:28? If he improves by 14 seconds in the 1500m, he should be able to improve by about 6 seconds in the 800m
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Just want to comment again that I'm completely confident that Cooper's in at least 45 mid shape rn and clearly is much faster than most of his world-class 800m competitors at 17 y/o. His 400m PR from a year ago is faster than most of these other 800m pros so I'm not sure what we're even talking about Coop being a "strength-based" runner. I will not be surprised when his coach is proved right about Coop's 44 high potential or when he sets a 600m WR.
He virtually never races the distance. If it was within his wheelhouse he would, and he would have shown it was one of his best distances earlier. You seem to find it difficult to see that he is an 800 specialist, and even an exceptional one - like Rudisha and Kipketer were. They were never going to be 400 guys or 1500 runners. But then, we also see that 400 runners are also mainly specialists. They are long sprinters, not md runners. He's a md runner. His strength and endurance is superior to his speed - like Snell. That's why he is an 800 specialist.
You keep saying he's a distance specialist, yet his best overdistance time is a 4:06 mile (in a time trialed race to run sub 4, not tactical). You know how much faster 800/1500 guys who ran 1:42 are in the mile? Nearly 20 seconds. Josh Hoey ran 3:29 which converts to 3:46. The fastest 400/800 guys are only 2 seconds haster than him in the 400. Even if you scale up to 1600 by doing 2*4 you get 8 seconds. His 400 is clearly way better than his mile at this time.
I'm not saying he is a distance specialist. He isn't. I'm saying he appears to be a strength-endurance guy, a bit like Snell was. Nothing wrong with that. Snell was not fast for an 800 guy - he ran 22-low for the 200 - but he remains one of the greatest 800 runners of all time - two Olympic golds in the event and he destroyed the then world records. It's a pretty flattering comparison for a runner who has yet to achieve any of that. But I can't see Lutkenhaus matching his achievements in the 1500/mile. He will probably be an exceptional 800 specialist - as Rudisha and Kipketer were.
As for "only two seconds" in the 400 - that's a huge margin. A 44 sec runner and a 46 sec runner aren't competing in the same event. One of them could win a final, the other wouldn't get past a heat.
Just want to comment again that I'm completely confident that Cooper's in at least 45 mid shape rn and clearly is much faster than most of his world-class 800m competitors at 17 y/o. His 400m PR from a year ago is faster than most of these other 800m pros so I'm not sure what we're even talking about Coop being a "strength-based" runner. I will not be surprised when his coach is proved right about Coop's 44 high potential or when he sets a 600m WR.
Your "confidence" isn't borne out by any times he has run. His coach has none to tell us. He may have neared his peak for speed. He may run sub-46 for the 400 - as Coe did in a relay - but that doesn't make him competitive in the event, in the way he clearly is in the 800. So far he doesn't appear to be as fast as Rudisha was over the 400 - he ran 45 - but Rudisha also was nowhere near the competitor over that distance as he was over the 800. Lutkenhaus looks to be the same. He won't get anywhere near the top guys over 400, and that includes Quincy, who is a real 400 runner.
Just want to comment again that I'm completely confident that Cooper's in at least 45 mid shape rn and clearly is much faster than most of his world-class 800m competitors at 17 y/o. His 400m PR from a year ago is faster than most of these other 800m pros so I'm not sure what we're even talking about Coop being a "strength-based" runner. I will not be surprised when his coach is proved right about Coop's 44 high potential or when he sets a 600m WR.
Your "confidence" isn't borne out by any times he has run. His coach has none to tell us. He may have neared his peak for speed. He may run sub-46 for the 400 - as Coe did in a relay - but that doesn't make him competitive in the event, in the way he clearly is in the 800. So far he doesn't appear to be as fast as Rudisha was over the 400 - he ran 45 - but Rudisha also was nowhere near the competitor over that distance as he was over the 800. Lutkenhaus looks to be the same. He won't get anywhere near the top guys over 400, and that includes Quincy, who is a real 400 runner.
Why do you consistently feel the need to bring up Coe’s sub-46 in a relay? CL ran 45.3 in a relay at 16 years of age. How old was Coe?
I agree 100% w Splance. 45.5 right now is only a 0.8 sec improvement over his 46.3 from last year after he was tired from running an 800. Very realistic.
And he doesn’t need “two seconds” to become a 44.xx runner. He only needs 1.31 from his PR from 16 years old, not totally fresh. Let’s see where he’s at at age 19.
You keep saying he's a distance specialist, yet his best overdistance time is a 4:06 mile (in a time trialed race to run sub 4, not tactical). You know how much faster 800/1500 guys who ran 1:42 are in the mile? Nearly 20 seconds. Josh Hoey ran 3:29 which converts to 3:46. The fastest 400/800 guys are only 2 seconds haster than him in the 400. Even if you scale up to 1600 by doing 2*4 you get 8 seconds. His 400 is clearly way better than his mile at this time.
I'm not saying he is a distance specialist. He isn't. I'm saying he appears to be a strength-endurance guy, a bit like Snell was. Nothing wrong with that. Snell was not fast for an 800 guy - he ran 22-low for the 200 - but he remains one of the greatest 800 runners of all time - two Olympic golds in the event and he destroyed the then world records. It's a pretty flattering comparison for a runner who has yet to achieve any of that. But I can't see Lutkenhaus matching his achievements in the 1500/mile. He will probably be an exceptional 800 specialist - as Rudisha and Kipketer were.
As for "only two seconds" in the 400 - that's a huge margin. A 44 sec runner and a 46 sec runner aren't competing in the same event. One of them could win a final, the other wouldn't get past a heat.
I see you didn’t bother reading my second post where I said I meant to refer you saying he’s strength based 800 runner. There is something wrong with that. As I mentioned, the best 400/800 runners in the world are running 44 seconds for the 400 (example Emmanuel Korir), whereas the best 800/1500 runners (the strength based ones) are running around 3:30 (ex Josh Hoey running 3:29, Coe 3:29). Cooper Lutkenhaus ran 46.3 in the 400m, 2 seconds off of what the best 400/800 guys are doing. He also ran 4:06 in the mile, roughly 20 seconds off what the best 800/1500/mile guys are going. Cooper is closer to the 400/800 guys than the 800/1500/mile guys. Proof: we extend the 400m to 1600m by multiplying the time he’s off from the 400/800 guys by: 2x4=8. So he’s relatively 8 seconds off per mile in the 400 from the best 400/800 guys while he’s 20 seconds off per mile in the mile vs the best 800/1500/mile guys. Therefore, he is more speed based than he is strength based.
I'm not saying he is a distance specialist. He isn't. I'm saying he appears to be a strength-endurance guy, a bit like Snell was. Nothing wrong with that. Snell was not fast for an 800 guy - he ran 22-low for the 200 - but he remains one of the greatest 800 runners of all time - two Olympic golds in the event and he destroyed the then world records. It's a pretty flattering comparison for a runner who has yet to achieve any of that. But I can't see Lutkenhaus matching his achievements in the 1500/mile. He will probably be an exceptional 800 specialist - as Rudisha and Kipketer were.
As for "only two seconds" in the 400 - that's a huge margin. A 44 sec runner and a 46 sec runner aren't competing in the same event. One of them could win a final, the other wouldn't get past a heat.
This is where you completely lose the plot. Cooper IS already fast for an 800 guy. His 400 abilities are already likely superior to Wanyonyi, Bol, Crestan, Attaoui, Sedjati, McPhillips, Burgin. Most of the best 800 guys currently are not coming from heavy 400 backgrounds. There are a few like Marco Arop, Josh Hoey, Brandon Miller who I’d be intrigued to see match up vs him in a 400.
Most of the thread is exploring the idea of him breaking 45 not scaring 43 but you keep making straw man arguments.
You insist on Snell/Coe when the better comp appears to be Rudisha who ran 45.5 in February. Lutkenhaus might have more interest in running the 400 than he did, but I don’t believe Kenya had great relay prospects at that time, which the US does.
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I'm not saying he is a distance specialist. He isn't. I'm saying he appears to be a strength-endurance guy, a bit like Snell was. Nothing wrong with that. Snell was not fast for an 800 guy - he ran 22-low for the 200 - but he remains one of the greatest 800 runners of all time - two Olympic golds in the event and he destroyed the then world records. It's a pretty flattering comparison for a runner who has yet to achieve any of that. But I can't see Lutkenhaus matching his achievements in the 1500/mile. He will probably be an exceptional 800 specialist - as Rudisha and Kipketer were.
As for "only two seconds" in the 400 - that's a huge margin. A 44 sec runner and a 46 sec runner aren't competing in the same event. One of them could win a final, the other wouldn't get past a heat.
This is where you completely lose the plot. Cooper IS already fast for an 800 guy. His 400 abilities are already likely superior to Wanyonyi, Bol, Crestan, Attaoui, Sedjati, McPhillips, Burgin. Most of the best 800 guys currently are not coming from heavy 400 backgrounds. There are a few like Marco Arop, Josh Hoey, Brandon Miller who I’d be intrigued to see match up vs him in a 400.
Most of the thread is exploring the idea of him breaking 45 not scaring 43 but you keep making straw man arguments.
You insist on Snell/Coe when the better comp appears to be Rudisha who ran 45.5 in February. Lutkenhaus might have more interest in running the 400 than he did, but I don’t believe Kenya had great relay prospects at that time, which the US does.
Hoey would get smoked by cooper in a 400, his 1500 is way faster than Cooper's yet they have the same 800 time.
I don't know if this means anything, but it I couldn't help thinking that Lutkenhaus' stride looked like he was running a mile when winning the 800m at Worlds, while everyone else was straining to run an 800m. I think he has tremendous upside in the mile.
I saw a very powerful runner that isn’t likely to be as good in the 1500m.
I agree that Lutkenhaus' strongest event is the 800m, which is why he will only run 3:24 for the 1500m.