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Josh Kerr’s interesting season so far…he is not a racer or a champion

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    justanothercuriousdude

    Member since 07/08/2023.

    2,061 posts. Last post 5 months ago.
    1 year ago 07/19/2024 8:16am EDT
    re: Armstronglivs

    Armstronglivs wrote:

    Your argument about Snell doesn't necessarily follow. Ron Clarke showed from his world records that he had more in his tank than anyone else but if they were with him at the finish he got out-kicked. He didn't have that gear. Snell did. It isn't just about superior endurance.

    Well, you may have a point here. -Athletes are different in so many ways. But I can’t see that difference between Jakob and current kickers (Hocker, Beamish, Nordås). But we haven’t seen much of Jakob in races where he is confronted by kicks / tries to win by kicking himself. -The two examples I know of is semis WC 2023 (where he kicks very good) and indoors 1500m Euros 2019 where he is clearly out kicked by Lewandowski…

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    justanothercuriousdude

    Member since 07/08/2023.

    2,061 posts. Last post 5 months ago.
    1 year ago 07/19/2024 8:31am EDT
    re: Trollminator

    Trollminator wrote:

    In other words, in a championship final the guy that is 2 seconds faster than the field needs to run 2 seconds faster than the field to beat them. Jakob has not and cannot do that on his own in a championship race (note Tim paced him in Tokyo). So if they are all running slower than they can, the pacing takes something out of Jakob and others have a chance to snipe him. Kerr has closed his 1500 PB gap to Jakob this year a bit, so Jakob has less room to spare with him.

    Here I agree with you -front running is a risky game. But running in the field is also extremely risky -if Kerr had run at Jakob’s shoulder/back in WC 2023 (like he did in Lausanne, and Nuguse did in his PR mile) Kerr would have won with a significantly larger gap… And yes, Kerr might win in Paris (or being blocked in the field, running wide bends or even being tripped -There’s no easy strategy or outcome here, IMO)… Best of luck to both -may the best win!

    This post was edited 1 minute after it was posted.
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    justanothercuriousdude

    Member since 07/08/2023.

    2,061 posts. Last post 5 months ago.
    1 year ago 07/19/2024 8:43am EDT
    re: Trollminator

    Trollminator wrote:

    Hypotheticals and a stretch to say rounds in the heat after a season of gunning for WRs didn't take anything out of him.

    Again -compare with Tokyo where he was fresh in the final. And the season: He had a longer season in 2022. And WC 2023 was sort of mid season for him. Just watch how he excelled after Worlds, with WR in the 2000m, 3.43 mile despite jet lag +++

    This post was edited 1 minute after it was posted.
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    Trollminator

    Member since 07/29/2015.

    21,955 posts. Last post 1 year ago.
    1 year ago 07/19/2024 9:02am EDT
    re: justanothercuriousdude

    justanothercuriousdude wrote:

    Trollminator wrote:

    In other words, in a championship final the guy that is 2 seconds faster than the field needs to run 2 seconds faster than the field to beat them. Jakob has not and cannot do that on his own in a championship race (note Tim paced him in Tokyo). So if they are all running slower than they can, the pacing takes something out of Jakob and others have a chance to snipe him. Kerr has closed his 1500 PB gap to Jakob this year a bit, so Jakob has less room to spare with him.

    Here I agree with you -front running is a risky game. But running in the field is also extremely risky -if Kerr had run at Jakob’s shoulder/back in WC 2023 (like he did in Lausanne, and Nuguse did in his PR mile) Kerr would have won with a significantly larger gap… And yes, Kerr might win in Paris (or being blocked in the field, running wide bends or even being tripped -There’s no easy strategy or outcome here, IMO)… Best of luck to both -may the best win!

    I agree. I think Jakob guarantees himself a medal by front running, but a slow tactical race is anyone's guess. Jakob won't take that chance. I favor Kerr not because I think he's faster but because the race is likely to play into his hands again. The rest of the field respects Kerr and they will fight to sit on his shoulder and not Jakob's. They shouldn't IMO but they probably will because Jakob and Kerr are in superior form and it'll be fast so they'll fight for bronze position through the last bend.

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    Trollminator

    Member since 07/29/2015.

    21,955 posts. Last post 1 year ago.
    1 year ago 07/19/2024 9:06am EDT
    re: justanothercuriousdude

    justanothercuriousdude wrote:

    Trollminator wrote:

    Hypotheticals and a stretch to say rounds in the heat after a season of gunning for WRs didn't take anything out of him.

    Again -compare with Tokyo where he was fresh in the final. And the season: He had a longer season in 2022. And WC 2023 was sort of mid season for him. Just watch how he excelled after Worlds, with WR in the 2000m, 3.43 mile despite jet lag +++

    You simply cannot compare a DL meet with a championship final. All you've done is draw assumptions about his potential fitness. I look at his actual results and he's by far faster than the field, I don't dispute that. All I'm saying is that when he has to pace a final to make it fast it zaps his time advantage and he stands to get sniped. Expecting him to be able to front run close to a PB in a championship final is nuts. Nobody can do it.

    This post was edited 20 seconds after it was posted.
  • registered

    justanothercuriousdude

    Member since 07/08/2023.

    2,061 posts. Last post 5 months ago.
    1 year ago 07/19/2024 1:13pm EDT
    re: Trollminator

    Trollminator wrote:

    You simply cannot compare a DL meet with a championship final. All you've done is draw assumptions about his potential fitness. I look at his actual results and he's by far faster than the field, I don't dispute that. All I'm saying is that when he has to pace a final to make it fast it zaps his time advantage and he stands to get sniped. Expecting him to be able to front run close to a PB in a championship final is nuts. Nobody can do it.

    I don’t expect him to run close to his pb this year -that 3.26.73 was far to good paced to replicate solo…

  • registered

    Koltrast

    Member since 03/05/2024.

    911 posts. Last post 4 weeks ago.
    1 year ago 07/19/2024 3:20pm EDT
    re: Kerr Hater

    Kerrs PB is still 3:29 from the Tokyo final, and he didn't exactly look hot when he ran the 800 at the UK champs. If guys like Nuguse and Jakob want to make Paris a fast final then Kerr has very few chances of winning.

  • registered

    Koltrast

    Member since 03/05/2024.

    911 posts. Last post 4 weeks ago.
    1 year ago 07/20/2024 6:07pm EDT
    re: Kerr Hater

    Laughable that Kerr doesn't even bother to show up for London. How can people support a guy like him, who's more concerned about building his brand on social media than actually competing?

  • registered

    Trollminator

    Member since 07/29/2015.

    21,955 posts. Last post 1 year ago.
    1 year ago 07/21/2024 10:40am EDT
    re: Koltrast

    Koltrast wrote:

    Laughable that Kerr doesn't even bother to show up for London. How can people support a guy like him, who's more concerned about building his brand on social media than actually competing?

    Olympic gold > London DL win

  • registered

    Khamis

    Member since 07/29/2023.

    2,297 posts. Last post 1 week ago.
    1 year ago 07/21/2024 10:45am EDT
    re: Koltrast

    Koltrast wrote:

    Kerrs PB is still 3:29 from the Tokyo final, and he didn't exactly look hot when he ran the 800 at the UK champs. If guys like Nuguse and Jakob want to make Paris a fast final then Kerr has very few chances of winning.

    Best joke of the day. Kerr is in red hot 3:27 form at least. He nearly won the 800m at trials too!!!

  • registered

    Koltrast

    Member since 03/05/2024.

    911 posts. Last post 4 weeks ago.
    1 year ago 07/21/2024 6:49pm EDT
    re: Trollminator

    Trollminator wrote:

    Koltrast wrote:

    Laughable that Kerr doesn't even bother to show up for London. How can people support a guy like him, who's more concerned about building his brand on social media than actually competing?

    Olympic gold > London DL win

    Did I miss him winning gold? Last I checked Jakob beat him in the Olympics final where Kerr ran the fastest he's ran in his entire life

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