Seeing that Rudisha and Kipketer own a combined 17 of the top 25 performances in the 800 and the only others to break 1:42 ever also include Coe, Cruz and Amos all of whom are long retired (or banned in the case of Amos) I don't see how any current 800 runners are getting sub 1:40 anytime soon.
...And it's an event that doesn't gain benefit of super shoes. Emanuel Korir was on track to go sub 1:42 but like Brazier, is now plagued by injury and is 28 y.o now. Arop is not fast enough (46.1 400) nor strong enough and he is the current best at the event but you need to realize Rudisha could regularly drop a sub 1:42 performance each season and still couldn't go sub 1:40.
Unless a completely unknown super stud suddenly shows up I doubt if Rudisha's record falls soon let alone a sub 1:40! ...A sub sub 3:25 1500 might be more likely since the event is in the midst of some incredibly deep and very fast runners currently. And unlike the 8, the 15 does see the benefit of super shoes.
This is the "completely unknown super stud" if he can run 1:42.27 off 90% raw genetic talent. Imagine what he can do when he is 25 with years of training under him.
Child prodigies tend to peak earlier, I'd assume his peak will be at 22 and he'll sustain it for a while. That being said 5 years is plenty for him to run a ridiculous time.
Seeing that Rudisha and Kipketer own a combined 17 of the top 25 performances in the 800 and the only others to break 1:42 ever also include Coe, Cruz and Amos all of whom are long retired (or banned in the case of Amos) I don't see how any current 800 runners are getting sub 1:40 anytime soon.
...And it's an event that doesn't gain benefit of super shoes. Emanuel Korir was on track to go sub 1:42 but like Brazier, is now plagued by injury and is 28 y.o now. Arop is not fast enough (46.1 400) nor strong enough and he is the current best at the event but you need to realize Rudisha could regularly drop a sub 1:42 performance each season and still couldn't go sub 1:40.
Unless a completely unknown super stud suddenly shows up I doubt if Rudisha's record falls soon let alone a sub 1:40! ...A sub sub 3:25 1500 might be more likely since the event is in the midst of some incredibly deep and very fast runners currently. And unlike the 8, the 15 does see the benefit of super shoes.
This is the "completely unknown super stud" if he can run 1:42.27 off 90% raw genetic talent. Imagine what he can do when he is 25 with years of training under him.
It's not quite this simple though, even though most wish it was. Because it seems like a simple proposition - kid at 16 who simply can't have a large lifetime volume of training behind him (due to age more than anything) runs 1.42.2 so with even 4-5 years of "adult" level work surely will run 1.5-2.0 seconds faster, right?
But physiology, growth development - all this stuff we really have no idea about. I look at both Ruthe and CL and it feels like they are (figuratively of course) 150 lb go-karts running on rocket fuel right now. The endocrinological taps are fully open for them at 16 (as opposed to 19,20 for most "normal" kids) powering these lightweight, flexible frames just perfect for running and on top of that, because they are so young there is almost no wear or fatigue on them either.
These guys are still growing and we don't know what/if/how that might create any imbalance as they do. I'm not doomsday prophesying here - just trying to add some perspective. The spectrum of what a committed 16 year old 800m runner (even one with talent) will run when they are 23-24 is massive. If I was going to guess, an "average" might be in the 7-8 second range (so a 1.44.0 800m runner might have been a 1.51/2 runner at 16?) Well Lutkenhaus is not going to be running 1.35 for the 800m at age 23 I can guarantee that.
Like a lot of fans I am beyond interested to see how this kid backs up last season and how he develops. We've never seen anyone at his level so young before and it's going to be not just a physical challenge for him but also a mental/emotional one to live up to a performance like the US champs in '25.
This is the "completely unknown super stud" if he can run 1:42.27 off 90% raw genetic talent. Imagine what he can do when he is 25 with years of training under him.
It's not quite this simple though, even though most wish it was. Because it seems like a simple proposition - kid at 16 who simply can't have a large lifetime volume of training behind him (due to age more than anything) runs 1.42.2 so with even 4-5 years of "adult" level work surely will run 1.5-2.0 seconds faster, right?
But physiology, growth development - all this stuff we really have no idea about. I look at both Ruthe and CL and it feels like they are (figuratively of course) 150 lb go-karts running on rocket fuel right now. The endocrinological taps are fully open for them at 16 (as opposed to 19,20 for most "normal" kids) powering these lightweight, flexible frames just perfect for running and on top of that, because they are so young there is almost no wear or fatigue on them either.
These guys are still growing and we don't know what/if/how that might create any imbalance as they do. I'm not doomsday prophesying here - just trying to add some perspective. The spectrum of what a committed 16 year old 800m runner (even one with talent) will run when they are 23-24 is massive. If I was going to guess, an "average" might be in the 7-8 second range (so a 1.44.0 800m runner might have been a 1.51/2 runner at 16?) Well Lutkenhaus is not going to be running 1.35 for the 800m at age 23 I can guarantee that.
Like a lot of fans I am beyond interested to see how this kid backs up last season and how he develops. We've never seen anyone at his level so young before and it's going to be not just a physical challenge for him but also a mental/emotional one to live up to a performance like the US champs in '25.
This is probably the most balanced take in the thread. A 16-year-old running 1:42.27 is obviously historic, but projecting him straight to sub-1:40 assumes development is linear, and it almost never is. The exciting part is that his ceiling is completely unknown. The risky part is also that his ceiling is completely unknown. Growth, durability, race tactics, pressure, and whether he can keep that same efficiency as his body changes all matter. I’d say he’s the first current name who makes sub-1:40 feel imaginable, but not yet predictable. For now, breaking 1:41 would already be a massive next step.
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