Just looking around at what some schools in the valley have for best marks for freshman, using TullyRunners speed ratings- everything at 100 or above:
Boise:
143, 143, 116, 100
Centennial:
134, 108, 100
Eagle:
137, 136, 109
Mountain View:
140, 135, 130
Rocky:
151, 144, 137, 132, 115, 106
A couple of quick notes- Luke Bruce has a lifetime speed rating best of 153 from last year. Boise also has 9th graders that ran 115, 113, 104, and 102. Eagle's #3 has a lifetime best of 130, and they have another freshman that had a 115 last year on the track. Mountain View has one meet under their belts, so they will probably see a nice increase soon, too.
Rocky's Michael Majors ran 4:52 last spring as an 8th grader. I don't see any other readily available times on athletic.net from the WASD meet.
Boise has lifetime bests of 153, 143, 116, 115, 113, 104, 102, 100 vs. Rocky's 151, 144, 137, 132, 115, 106.
CDA has 176, 160, 127, 124, 113, 111, 101. Scoring those three against each other gets you CDA and Rocky neck and neck and Boise about 10 points back. All three freshman classes are very good. Rocky's is hurt if Michael Majors doesn't run XC, or if he isn't same level (a la another runner everyone projected to be a major contributor for Rocky this fall).
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Also, Wyatt Carr's time that you have is for 2 miles, not 3200m. You would probably do better to do an actual statistical analysis instead of a surface level computation of average time.
An average of top 3 times, or 2nd fastest time, would probably give you a more accurate picture into who the runner was for the majority of their freshman or senior years. You could break it into tiers as well- an easy method would be to have it in tranches of 10 based on speed ratings, and then break it into how they improved within each segment- that way you could at least try to bring 1600 and 3200 marks to a consistent measure of quality.
I'm too tired to do something like this but if I get bored I might do this in the next day or two.00 -
Data Nerd wrote:
Due to lack of strict numbers on the team, I have taken the top 6 CDA athletes who are Sophomores or older, and found their Freshman PR to current PR progression. (No Rietzhe or Jones given lack of data)
Max Skinner: 2:03/4:28/9:27 -> 2:02/4:18/9:13
May: 2:00/4:30/10:00 -> 1:56/4:20/9:37
King: 2:07/4:40 -> 1:59/4:23/9:39
Zack Skinner: 2:10/4:30/9:46 -> 2:04/4:18/9:21
Rohlinger: 2:09/4:47 -> 2:04/4:46
Studebaker: 2:48/6:17 -> 2:21/5:17
Average improvements -> 800: 8.5s, 18.3s, 20.6s
Man- faulty data all over the spot.
Max has a 9:01 3200m mark from Nike Indoor.
Jacob King has a 9:19.
Zach CS's time is a 2 mile, so closer to 9:17.
Rohlinger has a 4:41 mile from indoors this year.Lachlan May didn't run a 3200 after April 21st of last year. He won 2 of the 3 he raced, and lost to Max by .1-ish in the one race he lost.
CDA has best 1600m/3200m marks from the guys that you listed at 192, 184, 182, 182, 159 vs. the 185, 184, 182, 178, 152 that you stated.10 -
dark horse? wrote:
Data Nerd wrote:
Due to lack of strict numbers on the team, I have taken the top 6 CDA athletes who are Sophomores or older, and found their Freshman PR to current PR progression. (No Rietzhe or Jones given lack of data)
Max Skinner: 2:03/4:28/9:27 -> 2:02/4:18/9:13
May: 2:00/4:30/10:00 -> 1:56/4:20/9:37
King: 2:07/4:40 -> 1:59/4:23/9:39
Zack Skinner: 2:10/4:30/9:46 -> 2:04/4:18/9:21
Rohlinger: 2:09/4:47 -> 2:04/4:46
Studebaker: 2:48/6:17 -> 2:21/5:17
Average improvements -> 800: 8.5s, 18.3s, 20.6s
Man- faulty data all over the spot.
Max has a 9:01 3200m mark from Nike Indoor.
Jacob King has a 9:19.
Zach CS's time is a 2 mile, so closer to 9:17.
Rohlinger has a 4:41 mile from indoors this year.
Lachlan May didn't run a 3200 after April 21st of last year. He won 2 of the 3 he raced, and lost to Max by .1-ish in the one race he lost.
CDA has best 1600m/3200m marks from the guys that you listed at 192, 184, 182, 182, 159 vs. the 185, 184, 182, 178, 152 that you stated.
Sorry I should have been more diligent looking into all these times - it was hard to find everything for CDA due to their club races and high school races being in different athletic.net tabs, and trying to find their indoor vs outdoor times and seeing which one is faster
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Using times from 4 years of data for Rocky and then using 3 years of data for King/May, and 2 years for the Cervi-Skinner brothers and Rohlinger, who has been a hurdler, seems like faulty modeling.
Max ran 9:27 as a freshman and then 9:13 as a sophomore. Saying that his improvement over 4 years is 14 seconds is a huge oversight. Even saying that it's 25 seconds (which it actually is so far) is still an oversight. You don't have the data on CDA to make any assumptions. You would need to have years and years of data over hundreds of runners to make any sort of assumption, and your data on Rocky is missing too many data points that are available to actually make real assumptions.10 -
Coach Jonathan Marcus, Portland State, has offered a scholarship to CDA Charter's Nathan Russell. Teammate Nolan Oyler has been invited to walk on. Russel has a good chance of running 1:55 and 4:15 (1600) this year.10
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IHMELS IS OUT AS BSU COACH. His children (Wil and Ruby) have each posted the fastest 3200m times of the season. I wonder if they will stay at Timberline? This could be their last season in Idaho if he finds a job out of state. Interesting development.
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CDA freshman track results are pretty sparse, but their freshman XC times:
Carr - 15:33
Heule - 16:58
Dance - 17:02
Kennedy - 17:09
Rasor - 17:3300 -
More freshmen wrote:
CDA freshman track results are pretty sparse, but their freshman XC times:
Carr - 15:33
Heule - 16:58
Dance - 17:02
Kennedy - 17:09
Rasor - 17:33That doesn't really mean much overall. Given how obviously short the battle for the 509 was (just about every CDA PR is there, and it was early season) and the dramatic variation between courses XC times don't matter. Winston Tilzey was crazy short in 2019, and a bunch of times never had athletes run faster, but that didn't mean the athletes were that good
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Flom wrote:
More freshmen wrote:
CDA freshman track results are pretty sparse, but their freshman XC times:
Carr - 15:33
Heule - 16:58
Dance - 17:02
Kennedy - 17:09
Rasor - 17:33That doesn't really mean much overall. Given how obviously short the battle for the 509 was (just about every CDA PR is there, and it was early season) and the dramatic variation between courses XC times don't matter. Winston Tilzey was crazy short in 2019, and a bunch of times never had athletes run faster, but that didn't mean the athletes were that good
Carr ran 15:55 on the Firman course. Heule's best came at Hole in the Wall, but he also ran 17:10 at Farraguat. His 1600m time backs up his talent. Dance ran 17:05 at Hole in the Wall. Rasor's came at Hole in the Wall. Kennedy is the one mark that sticks out as being way better than his other marks, but he did run 2:16 and 5:08 to win two events at a duel with Post Falls last week.
Before you complain about times on fast courses, those marks were 176, 150, 148, and 138.
CDA freshman boys are good.10 -
If the rumors are true, he’s probably going to be unemployed for a bit.
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Why not stick to times and facts rather than resort to assumption of “idolizing others” - that comment is frankly over the line and saying that means you know nothing about the CDA boys. Not only are they having fun, but they are basically encouraging hard work paying off - and sometimes you still have work to do! They also support ANY Idaho athlete (of any sport) in any event. Let’s not hate on any group of boys - why not celebrate our state’s fantastic athletes and encourage them all to get to the next level. I would love to see any of these young men (and women) go to a competitive D1 school. Go ID!
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Idahome TMC wrote:
Why not stick to times and facts rather than resort to assumption of “idolizing others” - that comment is frankly over the line and saying that means you know nothing about the CDA boys. Not only are they having fun, but they are basically encouraging hard work paying off - and sometimes you still have work to do! They also support ANY Idaho athlete (of any sport) in any event. Let’s not hate on any group of boys - why not celebrate our state’s fantastic athletes and encourage them all to get to the next level. I would love to see any of these young men (and women) go to a competitive D1 school. Go ID!
It's because that's their whole thing. They preach it to their team, and they expect everyone else in the world to think the same way that they do. It's why they don't take their team to big meets in cross. Apparently that sends the wrong message about rewarding the fast kids.
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What are the rumors?
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Pro tip wrote:
If the rumors are true, he’s probably going to be unemployed for a bit.
Sorry meant to keep this part but:
What are the rumors?
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From reading a thread on here about his firing, it seems like there was some stuff going on with his female runners, with reports of abuse/perpetuating a culture of eating disorders. That's just what I've seen from briefly skimming through that thread.
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SmoothieKing23 wrote:
From reading a thread on here about his firing, it seems like there was some stuff going on with his female runners, with reports of abuse/perpetuating a culture of eating disorders. That's just what I've seen from briefly skimming through that thread.
Can’t be rumors if they are true!
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No Ihmels kids entered at this next meet...
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Rocky v Boise dual meet today, with Stadtlander and Paisley Taylor added for extra flavor.
Conditions look OK, mid 50's and a side of wind. Looking at entries, most of the legit Rocky/Boise guys are doing the 1600/800 combo, so hopefully we can get 2-3 boys under 4:25, and maybe 6-7 boys under 4:40.
Heemeyer in the 3200 only for his debut, hopefully even without him, Kemper/Lucas/Stadtlander can have a great 1600 race.
I could see the 800 being anywhere from 1:53-1:57 depending on who takes the lead early.
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